RADIO
Can we please just have one normal event with no bad weather or delays? If we were to blame the turbulent weather on anybody, it would probably be Viktor Hovland's 64 today. He gained across the board and had the 3rd-best putting performance in R1. Brian Harman found inspiration hunting Turkeys and BBQ'ing pigs over the weekend on route to a -6 (65) while Jimmy Walker turned into Jimmy Sprinter, chipping and putting himself to -6 with two holes still to go. Aaron Rai is the third of the trio tied for 2nd place and also is still on the course with three holes to play. Some nervy Viktor Hovland First-Round-Ticket holders out there, that's for sure.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership Analysis
Top Points Scorers
Highest-Owned Golfers
Going into Round 2, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 2 Strategy
There really doesn't appear to be that much of a weather advantage tomorrow.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the PGA SHOWDOWN $5K CADDIE [SINGLE ENTRY], which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
As we are running a little late, we are going to do a rapid-fire edition of each golfer.
Jon Rahm - lost -3 strokes short game today and will hopefully bounce back tomorrow at very low ownership.
Patrick Cantlay - gained +3.2 strokes ball striking and only shot -2. Patiently awaiting that putter to show up.
$9,000+
Cameron Young - level par for the round, losing -2.8 strokes putting and parring all three Par 5s. An explosive round is near.
Tony Finau - gained +4.2 ball striking and about lost that much short game. Get it together on the greens Big Tone!
$8,000+
Max Homa - one of the best iron players on tour and world No. 5 seems a little rudderless right now, but we could easily get the round of the day from a single digit owned Max if he gets his ish together tomorrow.
Tom Kim and Shane Lowry - Lost putting today and gained ball striking. A big round is near for all three.
Sahith Theegala - Capable of being one of the lowest scorers on the course, in any round, on any course. (See Masters R4).
$7,000+
Chris Kirk - Add him to the list of ball strikers who were directionless with the flat stick.
J.T. Poston - Lost -2 strokes on approach on a single hole today, and still only made a bogey. What? Massive bounce back coming tomorrow for the Postman!
Taylor Montgomery and Akshay Bhatia - Monty ended his round with a triple. Woof. Bhatia is one of the most volatile players on tour and with a lot of ground to be making up tomorrow we can expect fireworks or another blow up. Perfect showdown play at this price.
Brendon Todd - One of the best putters on tour can deal a bunch of damage on the greens if he sees a few go in early.
$6,000+
Thomas Detry - Lost two strokes on approach on two holes. He is way better than he is playing right now and hopefully we see him get it together tomorrow.
Adam Svensson - Ball striker. Lost -2.7 shortgame.
Lucas Glover - 2nd best ball striker in the field today, lost -2.9 strokes short game. Cheap.
Justin Suh - Grades out well in Round 2 and is not afraid to make birdies.
Satoshi Kodaira - Past winner here, solid round 2 scoring, and great on approach. $6,300.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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