RADIO
Round 1 is in the books and Seung Yul Noh shot a ridiculous -11 (60) to lead the field by three. His putter gained 6.5 strokes today, which is a feat only accomplished by 0.01% of PGA professionals since 2017. An epic day on the greens for the tournament leader. Can he hang on for the rest of the week with Scottie Scheffler lurking four shots behind?
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric. More often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player. Every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 1 Analysis
AM vs. PM
The AM/PM waves averaged 5%/3% ownership at $6,963/$7,087 average salaries. The lopsided ownership was warranted as the AM wave averaged a shot less than the PM guys.
Best Scores
The top three scores were from the AM wave with 13 of the 23 best scores being from the early wave.
Ownership
I wonder if the public stacked their lineups with AM guys?
Going into Round 2, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 2 Strategy
If you believe that there will be gusts impacting tomorrow's round, then there may be a wave edge. If you think that the wind remains relatively constant throughout the day with odd showers keeping the course from baking out, then there may be a slight game theory edge playing afternoon guys at slightly less ownership in similar conditions.
However, with most of the R1 AM guys playing well this morning, their PM ownership may be inherently higher as people try to chase their solid form. Are you confused yet? I think I am. All of this basically tells me we should just KISS and Keep It Simple Stupid -- sticking to the basics and playing projected low-owned guys with upside to the best of our abilities.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the PGA TOUR SHOWDOWN $4K CADDIE [SINGLE ENTRY], which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
After clawing his way to a level par round, Tom Kim has the third-best R2 scoring and will be looking for a bounce-back performance at much lower ownership. Wearing all the "K-tape" on his arms will scare people off with a potential injury. He is in the midst of adding length to his game. I think his consistency is out the window, making him a very volatile play right now. It comes with a lot of upside if you can tolerate the risk. That risk at roughly 12% is manageable.
Tyrrell Hatton sits behind only Scottie Scheffler in R2 scoring. With the way he has been striking his irons, he will be tough to pass up at mid-teens ownership after a disappointing -3 in R1.
We are fading Scottie Scheffler despite his ranking as the clear favorite heading into R2. With roughly 1/3 of the field rostering him tomorrow, it's an easier fade in showdown than weeklong. His putter is dancing between bliss and bewilderment but his hefty price tag of $12,100 and 33% ownership has us going elsewhere (with bated breath).
$9,000+
Kyoung-Hoon Lee is the back-to-back defending champ of the Byron Nelson. After a flat -1 today, expect him to give tomorrow a decent run to try to make the weekend and at least be around to watch somebody else win this event for the first time in three years.
Seamus Power checks all four boxes with a score of one or higher (Pre-Event, R2 SG, BoB%, App Score). Flirting with the cut line, we are hoping for him to surge up the leaderboard tomorrow morning at relatively low ownership.
$8,000+
Tom Hoge has an R2 strokes gained average of exactly zero, which is concerning. With his birdie %, pre-event ranking, and approach score all above TWO (1.98...), we will turn a nervous blind eye to his ominous freaky Friday average.
Taylor Montgomery was -3 through six holes and then imploded to shoot +3 on his next dozen holes. Yikes. However, we get the second-best birdie maker in the field at sub-$9k and minimal ownership. He has the potential to be a slate breaker at that ownership or iPhone screen breaker if he shoots another level par round (whispers "the uncomfortable plays sometimes pay off in a big way").
Adam Hadwin gained on approach. As a dedicated showdown content provider, he only lost significant strokes on two iron shots today. He was seemingly in control of his iron play for 16 holes, which is promising considering he tends to play well in R2.
$7,000+
This range is loaded with value and leverage plays like Brandon Wu, Ben Griffin, Justin Suh, Matthew NeSmith, and Robby Shelton, who all shot -3 or worse today. These were all mostly 7%+ owned golfers in R1. After a disappointing showing, hopefully they come in much lower owned in R2 with their sights set on bouncing back and scoring us a lot of fantasy points.
Sam Stevens and Scott Stallings will be a little more chalky plays but we still really like what they both offer in R2 from a salary-saving standpoint.
$6,000+
Greyson Sigg shot a quiet -4 today and is $6,800 heading into R2 with a relatively impressive Friday SG average. He is hitting his irons the fifth-best out of our player pool since the start of the year.
Austin Eckroat, Tano Goya, Ryan Moore, and Satoshi Kodaira all provide some value at $6,700 and $6,500 price tags.
Featured Group 3-Ball Bets
If you are a golf nerd like me and land up watching a lot of the featured group coverage on ESPN+, this new segment of the article is going to consist of Maniac Magic by making a bet on each 3-ball of the featured group just to have a little sweat while watching the morning coverage. If you are looking for much more strategic and reliable matchups, check out @TeeOffSports R2 matchups here. This part of the article is straight-up degenerate as we are forcing pocket money plays simply to enhance our golf viewing experience.
Seamus Power +155 over Tom Hoge and Davis Riley. Don't trust Hoge's R2 average and Riley is really inconsistent lately.
K.H Lee +250 over Jason Day and Scottie Scheffler. The defending champ is going to bounce back tomorrow, and we are fading Scottie and Day in Showdown, so why not expect some regression from both of them after going low in R1?
Si Woo Kim +100 over Taylor Montgomery and -- checks notes -- Richard Johnson, who is one of the worst golfers on tour. It is basically Si Woo over Montgomery and Si Woo has a massive ball-striking edge over Monty despite Montgomery's massive showdown upside. He is far from consistent lately.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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