RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - The Mexico Open

The PGA RotoBaller staff digs into their One and Done selections for The Mexico Open. Here are some under-the-radar plays and picks for this week's event.

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One and Done Selections - The Mexico Open

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Josh Bennett, Byron Lindeque and our special guest will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Joe Nicely - Nicolai Hojgaard

Alternate - Aaron Rai

I've been in this game a long time and I've found that betting on talent is usually a good idea. While the phenoms might not always develop into what we'd originally hoped, they are phenoms for a reason and you'd much rather be early than late. The 22-year-old Hojgaard fits the wunderkind mold, as he already has two DP World Tour victories under his belt and has played well enough in his limited U.S. appearances this year to have earned Special Temporary Membership on the PGA Tour.

Taking his talent and potential into account, a runner-up finish at Corales last month feels especially notable, as Hojgaard performed the feat on a long, coastal golf course with Paspalum greens and breezy conditions, an environment that's very similar to what he'll face this week at Vidanta Villarta. He's a destroyer of golf balls off the tee and ranks first in this week's field in Driving Distance. While I don't know if he'll have the opportunity to nearly ace a Par-4 like he did last week at the Zurich Classic, the Dane has the potential to overpower this driver-friendly layou

Yearly Earnings - $2,633,781
Yearly Cuts Made - 13/14

Josh Bennett - Gary Woodland

Alternate - Patrick Rodgers

I’m not really sure how to make a pick this week to be completely honest. I’ve used Tony Finau already and I’d prefer to have Rahm in an elevated event, he’ll contend here but he’ll contend everywhere, so I’d like to try to get the most points from him in the bigger events. The rest of the field… I’m not sure how you figure it out. Course history is very limited, and many in the field have only played one real event since the Valero, so form is harder to judge than usual for the players we are used to seeing tee it up pretty much every single week. So, I’m going to roll with Woodland, who seems to have maybe figured out his game after quite a long time of not being very good. He was not good last year and still finished 24^th in this event, so as a better golfer this time around I’d expect that he could pretty easily improve on that performance and see himself towards the top of the leaderboard.

Yearly Earnings - $5,310,187
Yearly Cuts Made - 11/14

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Spencer Aguiar - Tony Finau

Alternate - Wyndham Clark

Maybe this is too aggressive for a tournament that doesn't have an elevated purse, but I am down nearly seven million dollars...What else am I supposed to do at this point?

I continue to believe that Finau is sitting on a significant result after providing a handful of middling finishes to begin 2023, and we are still in a spot where something has to give when looking at his statistical versus performance comparison.

Maybe a reduced quality field is exactly what Finau needs to get himself back into the winner's circle, and it is not as if a nearly 1.4 million dollar purse would be something to scoff at if he were able to get the job done.

Yearly Earnings - $2,012,729
Yearly Cuts Made - 9/14

Byron Lindeque - Pick To Come

Yearly Earnings - $6,393,355
Yearly Cuts Made - 13/14

Andrew Putters - Wyndham Clark

Alternate - Patrick Rodgers

Guys, this is probably the easiest pick of the year. I am basing that statement on the idea that most of you have already selected John Rahm. So, this leaves me no choice but to go with who I believe is the second best player in the field this week, and he's trending up over the past few months. I would imagine he's probably gonna be a pretty popular pick this week. So if you're looking for someone a little off the cuff, he's not your guy, but for me, he’s a no doubter. Wyndham Clark is your Mexico Open champion. 

Yearly Earnings - $3,020,964
Yearly Cuts Made - 11/14

Mia The Model - Maverick McNealy

Alternate - 

Byron T20
(Past Selections Have Been Removed)

TeeOff T20

Aggregated Results

One of the significant differences you will notice is that I attached the aforementioned percent weight to each player when I randomized the list for the week. That means an option like  got rewarded for being a better option for our models (which we see with his 11% chance) all the way down to the bottom of our board in  – four golfers that received 2.5% of the projected pick equity.

We agreed on randomizing the list five times to settle on the name, and Mia has decided she wants to roll with this week as the selection and as the alternate. (All names used previously were removed).

Let us know what you think of her chances this week!

Yearly Earnings - $8,943,772
Yearly Cuts Made - 12/14

Running Totals

Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!

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