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Wade J. Smith (@wadejosephsmith) ranks the 2024 fantasy baseball rookie starting pitchers and where they should be valued for the rest of 2024 and beyond.
With the All-Star Break right around the corner, we're halfway through the 2024 MLB season. When it comes to young pitchers, there has been no shortage of outstanding rookies. Whether it's an established ace from overseas who signed in free agency, or a highly-touted flamethrower from the First-Year Player Draft, some of the game's best hurlers are still eligible for the Rookie of the Year Award.
In this article, we've ranked notable rookie pitchers into tiers. Placements were primarily based on their performance at the major league level. Other factors (albeit less prominent) included prospect pedigree, projections, and underlying metrics.
Wade J. Smith (@wadejosephsmith) analyzed this rookie class to give readers a few different things: (1) an advantage for the rest of this season; (2) a heightened outlook for redraft leagues in 2025; and (3) an idea of which young hurlers to prioritize in any future keeper/dynasty leagues. Now, let's get into this year's list.
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Tier One: The Elite
This tier is designated for only the best of the best...the talk of the town...the cream of the crop. What separates these players from the rest of the pack? It's simple. With enough time and development, many of these rookies could become frontline starters - definitive aces with long-term top-15 potential. But this tier demands more. The way I see it, an "elite" pitcher has long-term SP1 upside. Often, a rookie class won't have one. This year, we've got two.
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
There's no point in trying to argue for anyone else. When Skenes was drafted first overall last year, many experts immediately declared him baseball's top pitching prospect. With his gaudy numbers at LSU and 100+ mph heater, he quickly drew comparisons to some of the most exciting prospects ever, including Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole. Needless to say, expectations have been astronomically high. However, thus far, Skenes has met (if not exceeded) all of them.
Nine starts into his MLB career, Skenes is already establishing himself as one of the league's most dominant arms. Among all starting pitchers with at least 50 innings, he's 4-0 with the second-lowest ERA (2.06), the fifteenth-lowest WHIP (1.03), and the sixth-lowest K/BB ratio (70:10). On top of that, his underlying numbers are just as impressive. His overall 112 stuff+ is ranked #18, and his slider's 136 stuff+ is ranked #13. According to Baseball Savant, he's above the 84th percentile in offspeed run value (99th percentile), average fastball velocity (99th), strikeout rate (96th), pitching run value (93rd), xERA (92nd), walk rate (89th), xBA (84th), and whiff rate (84th).
At the rate he's going, Skenes is the clear favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year (-190). He might also land a few Cy Young votes as well. Overall, the sky is truly the limit. Few pitchers possess the same combination of nasty stuff and pinpoint command. At just 22 years old, he really could be "the next Stephen Strasburg," or even "the next Gerrit Cole." While those are certainly lofty expectations, he's given us no reason to doubt him. If he continues to develop and improve, it'll be a while before we call some kid "the next Paul Skenes."
Every pitcher in history to strike out 70 batters in the first 9 games of their MLB career while not allowing more than a dozen runs:
1. Paul Skenes
That's it. That's the list. pic.twitter.com/3DFNAo6kl0
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) June 30, 2024
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
Last offseason, Yamamoto was one the most highly-anticipated Japanese free agents to come out of the Nippon Baseball League. In seven seasons, he posted a minuscule 1.72 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 986:216 K/BB across 967 2/3 innings. He won three consecutive Sawamura Awards (the NPB equivalent of MLB's MVP Award), and ultimately signed the richest pitching contract in MLB history. Despite his profound success, some questioned how he'd transition to MLB's larger ball and offensive playstyle, citing the fact that he'd never pitched in MLB or any of its minor-league constituents. Fortunately for the Dodgers (and to the surprise of very few), he's been money well spent.
Before tearing his rotator cuff on June 15 and hitting the injured list, Yamamoto had been wonderful. On the year, he's 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA (2.67 FIP), 1.07 WHIP, and 84:17 K/BB through 74 innings. As for his underlying numbers, he's above the 75th percentile in fastball run value (92nd), pitching run value (90th), strikeout rate (85th), walk rate (83rd), xERA (77th), chase rate (76th), and groundball rate (76th). Coming into this season, fans were excited to see his signature splitter, and it hasn't disappointed. Its 122 stuff+ is tied for second-best in the league.
At just 25 years old, Yamamoto projects to be one of the next decade's top starting pitchers. Any other year, and he'd likely rank number one on this list. An argument can certainly be made that he and Skenes are 1(a) and 1(b). Even though I'm inclined to give Skenes a slight edge (mostly due to age, build, and pure stuff), Yamamoto belongs in the top tier.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 97mph ⛽️
7th K and is fired up. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/u9bmnq2Ui1
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 8, 2024
Tier Two: The Great
This tier is mainly for two types of pitchers: (1) those who have been excellent in 2024 without necessarily having long-term top-15 upside; and (2) those who have been good in 2024 while also having long-term top-15 upside. Some of these players are more likely to help your team in the short term (i.e., this season and next season). Others project to be productive options well into the future.
Jared Jones, Pittsburgh Pirates
If there's anyone I'm worried I'll be wrong about, it's Jones. Of all the rookies, he was the hardest to keep out of the "Elite" tier. A month away from 23 years old, he's been one of the most exciting pitchers in all of baseball. Through 86 innings, he's posted a 3.66 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 93:25 K/BB. He's at least in the 77th percentile in fastball velocity (94th), breaking ball run value (94th), whiff rate (91st), extension (84th), pitching run value (83rd), chase rate (80th), and strikeout rate (77th). Best of all, his four-seam fastball has a 132 stuff+, the outright best in MLB.
So, as impressive as he's been, why isn't Jones in the "Elite" tier? I think it has more to do with how great Skenes and Yamamoto are, and less to do with Jones. There's a reason he's the top player in this tier. When it comes to rookie pitchers expected to produce at a top-notch rate over the next ten years, Jones is the next-best option.
Jared Jones, 101mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/AiZcBHHvUt
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 4, 2024
Luis Gil, New York Yankees
Unlike the three players listed above him, Gil wasn't expected to have one of the better rookie seasons in 2024. Not only is he currently the favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year; he's on track to receive some Cy Young votes. Despite a blowup start against the Orioles on June 20, he's posted a 3.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 99:45 K/BB through 85 2/3 innings. He ranks above the 70th percentile in xBA (93rd), pitching run value (93rd), fastball velocity (89th), fastball run value (88th), offspeed run value (87th), xERA (75th), extension (73rd), and hard-hit rate (71st). He isn't too far behind Jones on the stuff+ leaderboard. Gil's four-seamer has a 128 stuff+, good for fourth in the league.
Overall, Gil falls just behind Jones for two main reasons. Jones has far better control, and he's four years younger. Still, Gil is a great young arm who's poised for prolonged success.
Luis Gil has retired 10 straight batters pic.twitter.com/Fq37TMHUWC
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) June 10, 2024
Gavin Stone, Los Angeles Dodgers
Before I sat down to start writing this article, I had no idea that Stone had a 2.73 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 70:25 K/BB in 89 innings. At 25 years old, he's establishing himself alongside Imanaga as a staple in the Dodgers' long-term rotation. His underlying numbers are solid. He's at least in the 75th percentile in pitching run value (98th), offspeed run value (92nd), fastball run value (91st), barrel rate (85th), hard-hit rate (84th), chase rate (79th), and average exit velocity (75th). His changeup has been borderline unhittable; opposing batters have combined for a .180 AVG, .292 SLG, and .211 wOBA against it. At the rate he's going, it looks like Stone will be a strong fantasy option for years to come.
Gavin Stone goes the distance to give the @Dodgers their first Complete Game since 2022! pic.twitter.com/bsqMzBQFMU
— MLB (@MLB) June 27, 2024
Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins
Woods Richardson is quietly having a great rookie year. Through 66 innings, he's posted a 3.41 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 56:19 K/BB. He's also in the 78th percentile or better in breaking ball run value (89th), fastball run value (84th), pitching run value (79th), and extension (78th).
Underlying numbers suggest that Woods Richardson is performing above expectations. He's ranked in the bottom half of the league in xERA (4.14), xBA (.247), barrel rate (10.3%), and groundball rate (40%). Despite that, he's only 23 years old and has looked great. I'm interested to see how he continues to develop. If I had to guess, I see him as a dependable, high-floor option. He may not have the same upside as the guys above him, but he should keep producing at the big-league level.
Simeon Woods Richardson, K'ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/vRWcLhPzYf
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 8, 2024
Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
Imanaga had an otherworldly start to the 2024 season. Through his first nine starts, he had a 0.84 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 58:9 K/BB in 53 2/3 innings. Had he continued pitching at this level, he'd undoubtedly be higher up on this list. However, over his last five starts, he's got a 6.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 26:5 K/BB. Overall, his stats still look good. But, like with Woods Richardson, if you look at his underlying metrics, you'll see that he's still performing above expectations. He's also given up a lot of hard contact and fly balls. That's not a great recipe for sustainable success, especially for someone who's already 30 years old.
Don't get me wrong, Imanaga's numbers are great, but I need a bigger sample size before I can comfortably assess him. It feels like we've got two extremes: (1) the second coming of 1999 Pedro Martinez, and (2) the second coming of Wade Smith in the 2014 eighth-grade semifinals (I gave up four runs in the first inning without getting a single out). Once his numbers regress to the mean, I think he'll be a reliable medium-floor, medium-ceiling option.
Shōta Imanaga’s 4-seamer this season—
First 9 starts: .164/.214/.227, 23% whiff rate
Last 5 starts: .327/.365/.735, 11% whiff rate
— nugget chef (@jayhaykid) June 27, 2024
Woods Richardson vs. Imanaga
I went back and forth between Woods Richardson and Imanaga. Their numbers are so similar, and I think they're both worthy options for the #5 spot. Here's why I ultimately put Woods Richardson ahead. First, he's seven years younger than Imanaga. Looking towards the future, I'd rather err on the side of youth. Second, despite Imanaga's blazing start, I don't see him performing at that level consistently. Third, even though Imanaga has thrown 19 more innings, Woods Richardson has been far more steady. I think that makes him much easier to project. Like I said, it can go either way, but I give Woods Richardson a slight edge.
Tier Three: The Other Guys
This tier is dedicated to waiver wire pickups and late-round flyers.
Matt Waldron, San Diego Padres
Don't get me wrong, it's been fun watching Waldron work this year. I just have no idea how to project a 27-year-old knuckleballer. He's had a great season, but he's far less reliable than the pitchers in tiers one and two.
Mitchell Parker, Washington Nationals
Through 78 2/3 innings, Parker has a 3.32 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 63:18 K/BB. While he's done well at limiting walks, the rest of his game doesn't project to hold up as well. He's in the bottom 50% of every stat on his Baseball Savant page besides chase rate, walk rate, and extension. Time will tell the pitcher he ultimately becomes.
Tobias Myers, Milwaukee Brewers
Meyers is having a strong under-the-radar season, posting a 3.26 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 51:18 K/BB through 58 innings. His 4.06 xERA and 4.45 FIP suggest that he's playing over his head, but he's done well enough to warrant inclusion in this tier.
Kyle Harrison, San Francisco Giants
Harrison has been pretty good, but there's nothing about him that stands out to the point where he belongs in the higher tiers. Also, his Baseball Savant page has a lot more blue than red. That doesn't mean everything, but it certainly isn't good.
Watch and Wait
These pitchers have made starts for their teams this season, but either (1) haven't done enough to establish themselves, (2) didn't stick around and got sent back to the minors, or (3) pitched so poorly that their rotation spot could be in jeopardy. They're worth mentioning, but that's about it, for now.
- Christian Scott, New York Mets
- Cade Povich, Baltimore Orioles
- Max Meyer, Miami Marlins
- Drew Thorpe, Chicago White Sox
- Quinn Priester, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros
- Jordan Wicks, Chicago Cubs
- Jose Butto, New York Mets
- Cooper Criswell, Boston Red Sox
- Landon Knack, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Emerson Hancock, Seattle Mariners
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