Projecting Power in 2021: Late ADP Options

Nicklaus Gaut continues his series on projecting power in 2021 by using exit velocity and barrel-rate to identify under-the-radar power options who will be available late in drafts.

Like a sitcom catchphrase from a bygone era, we all want more power. We'll take it early and we'll take it late but it always feels extra sweet when one of your final picks suddenly becomes one of the mayors of dong city.

Looking at a player's exit velocities can tell us a lot about where a player's power is trending but not all exit velocity measurements are created equal. You're much better off looking at Barrel% and the average EV of only balls hit in the air than you would be looking at Hard Hit% or overall exit velocities. And taking it a step further, you really should also look at the percentage of balls that a player hits in the air at 100 mph or greater.

We've used these metrics already to look at who were the elite smackers of baseball in 2020 and then to poke around the early rounds of ADP to see what's what. This time out we'll head to the other end of the ADP spectrum and try to mine some cheap power out of the back half of drafts (and beyond). Looking only higher than a 250 ADP, there were 18 players who finished in at least the 80th percentile of Barrel% and the 80th percentile of Air% 100 mph+. That seems like a good place to stick our pick in the ground and start digging.

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Methodology, Terms, and Conditions

• 250 ADP or higher in NFBC
• 80th percentile or higher in Brl% (Barrels per bbe)
• 80th percentile or higher in Air% 100+ mph
• min. 25 batted-ball events in 2020
• All dollar values mentioned for previous seasons calculated using the auction calculator at Fangraphs, set for a 12-team league with standard roster settings.
• Statcast data is taken from EV Analytics and can be slightly different from Baseball Savant due to EV's own methodology. From their glossary:

Note: Statcast stats are calculated live by in-ballpark cameras and radar. These occasionally fail to record data on certain batted balls. All data and projections displayed at EV Analytics that rely on Statcast data identify these missed balls and estimate what they should have been. Internal tests showed this to be slightly more accurate than either ignoring the missing data or using MLB's.

• Barrel - From MLB.com:

"The Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015. 

To be Barreled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands."

• Barrel% - Barrels per batted-ball event
• Air% - total percent of balls hit in the air (fly balls + line drives)
• Air % 100+ mph- the percentage of balls hit in the air that had an exit velocity of 100 mph or greater.
• Average EV Top-5% - The average exit-velocity of a player's top-5% hardest-hit balls.
• Average EV Next-20% - The average exit velocity of the next 20% of hardest-hit balls.

Kole Calhoun, ARI, 262 ADP

12.1% Brl% (80th percentile)

39.0% Air% 100+ mph (81st percentile)

Boring old Kole Calhoun gets no respect. Currently going around a 260 ADP in early NFBC drafts, Calhoun earned $20.8 in 2020 according to the Fangraphs auction calculator, hitting 16 home runs in 228 PA, while slashing .226/.338/.526, with 40 RBI, 35 runs scored, and a .362 wOBA. That made him the 18th highest-earning outfielder and 37th-hitter overall. Read that again. His name is Kole Calhoun.

While this was easily Calhoun's biggest fantasy earnings to date (and unlikely to be replicated), putting up sneaky value while staying under the ADP radar wasn't a unique experience. Calhoun had just a 425 ADP going into his final season with the Angels in 2019 but finished as the 33rd highest-earning outfielder (89th-overall) after hitting 33 HR in 632 PA, slashing .232/.325/.467, with 74 RBI and 92 runs scored. And he's been putting up that sneaky value for a while:

Calhoun's average velocity of only 89.4 mph in 2020 stayed nearly static compared to the previous season while dropping from a 42.6% hard-hit rate in 2019 to 38.2% last year. And his 93 mph average EV on balls in the air was down from 95.6 mph in 2019. The end must be nigh, right?:

However, when looking at the different ranges of Calhoun's Air% exit velocities, it doesn't appear that the drop in his overall average of balls hit in the air came from the upper end of the spectrum:

Not that the numbers were overly special but the average exit velocity of his top-5%  hardest-hit balls has stayed rock solid, as has the next 20%. But his percentage of balls hit in the air at 100+ mph continues to rise, going from the 35th percentile in 2017 to the 81st last year.

That's not the only thing saying that Calhoun won't suffer a power outage in 2021. His barrel% (arguably the best predictor for future power) has also been rising, as has his average launch angle, sweet-spot percentage, and the percentage of his launch angles of 38-degree or higher. And just for fun, he also keeps pulling the ball more every year:

You're shooting way too high to expect the 43 HR pace that Calhoun ran through the shortened 2020 season, or even the 33 HR he hit in 2019. But hitting 25+ HR seems like a pretty sound floor for Calhoun and that (along with some better batted-ball luck than he's had recently) could make quietly him a top-50 outfielder yet again.

Bobby Dalbec, BOS, 267 ADP

22.0% Brl% (97th percentile)

66.7% Air% 100+ mph (99th percentile)

We already covered him in part one but it's still okay to take a moment to appreciate just how big of lasers that Bobby Dalbec was crushing during his 92 PA introduction to the big leagues in 2020. Dalbec hit eight home runs while sipping that cup of coffee, putting up elite exit velocities and barrel-rates.

As sexy as the above numbers are, don't get too gooey-eyed over Dalbec just yet. Because as hard as he hits the ball, he whiffs just as much, posting a 42.4% K% and 22.2% SwStr% in 2020. He did post more tolerable strikeout rates of around 25% at Double- and Triple-A in 2019, so maybe there's hope that it comes back to earth in 2021.

However, let's be honest; Dalbec's a whiffer and he'll probably stay a whiffer. But just what level of whiffery he settles at is what will ultimately determine his worth. Just as Miguel Sano, Gary Sanchez, and others have proven, big barrels and exit velocities don't necessarily equal big fantasy value. Because you have to hit a whole lot of home runs to justify carrying a .200 AVG.

C.J. Cron, Free Agent, 331 ADP

20.8% Brl% (97th percentile)

46.2% Air% 100+ mph (93rd percentile)

So with a 331 ADP in NFBC after a knee injury limited him to just 13 games and 52 PA, I guess we're just done with C.J. Cron? I get that he isn't yet signed for 2021 but it does make a lot of sense for Cron to head back to Detroit and a team like Milwaukee also seems like a reasonable landing spot. No, Detroit and its pitcher-friendly park isn't a very glamorous location but those concerns aren't any different than what they were heading into 2020 when Cron was a popular sleeper who eventually rose to an ADP in the early-200's.

The fact that he's a free agent explains some of his ADP drop but not all. So he must have been pretty terrible before he got hurt, to deserve going that late in early drafts, right? Not exactly. Cron's power potential has been evident for a while, hitting home runs at a rate of 0.54 and 0.54 HR per PA in 2018-19 but a lot of the hype heading into 2020 was revolved around his elite barrel-rate (top-5%) and fly ball exit velocities (top-4%).

It was much of the same in his short-lived 2020 season:

I get it, he only played 13 games. But those 13 games looked a lot like the Cron we saw for 125 games in 2019 - which was a better version of the 140 games in 2018. So is 2020 just an ignorable small-sample, or is it confirmation that the high hopes were justified?

Assuming he resigns with Detroit (or gets a starting job elsewhere) my opinion is roughly the same as prior to 2020, with another year of being over 30-years-old being the only downgrade.

Nate Lowe, TEX, 333 ADP

15.4% Brl% (93rd percentile)

40.0% Air% 100+ mph (84th percentile)

Nate Lowe shows a 331 ADP but most of those drafts took place before he was traded to a likely starting job in Texas. Looking only at drafts since the trade on December 10 (7 total), Lowe has already risen to a 285 ADP. What the former Ray lacks in sample-size (245 PA in 2019-20) he makes up in hype and people are excited.

Whether Lowe can get his plate-discipline issues under control enough to unlock his fantasy potential remains to be seen, as he posted a 36.8% K% in 2020 after 29.6% in 2019. But he certainly has some Statcast sexiness, with his Air% average exit velocity in the 85th percentile and his Air% (100 mph+) in the 84th. Put that together with a 15.4% Brl% that was in the top-7% of baseball and it's easy to see why people are itching to see him with an everyday role.

A Catcher and Other Deep Cuts

Now that we've covered players that will be drafted in most leagues, let's take some quicker looks at players unlikely to be drafted in 12-team leagues and only in the last rounds of a 15-team league.

They all have warts. It might be the lack of a full-time job, large deficiencies in other categories (ie. batting average sinks), or simply being a Pittsburgh Pirate. But they also have some power qualities that might be worth one of your final picks or at least keeping an eye on.

Ryan Jeffers, MIN, 320 ADP

14.3% Brl%  (91st percentile)

50.0% Air% 100+ mph (96th percentile)

The Good

One of Minnesota's top catching prospects, Jeffers got the call to the bigs after incumbent starter Mitch Garver went down with an injury in mid-August. Jeffers struck out at a 30% clip but also hit three home runs in 62 PA, with exit velocities that spoke with authority. In addition to his elite barrel rate and Air% 100+ mph, Jeffers also posted a 96.4 mph average exit velocity on balls in the air (96th percentile).

The Bad

He's a catcher without a full-time job, as Minnesota has to be assuming that a healthy Mitch Garver will manage better than the .232 wOBA, 41 wRC+, and 45.7% K% that he put up in 2020. Or perhaps Garver continues to be terrible and Jeffers ends up with a majority of the playing time. If you're looking for a catcher to come out of nowhere and return top-five fantasy value, Jeffers might be the best bet.

Edwin Rios, LAD, 334 ADP

13.8% Brl% (89 percentile)

38.9% Air% 100+ mph (80th percentile)

The Good

Rios has now only played in 60 games in the big leagues but has hit the ball far in the chances he's had, with 4 HR in 56 PA (.071 hr/pa)  in 2019 and 8 HR in 83 PA (.096 hr/pa) this season. His 96.2 mph average EV on balls in the air was in the top-5% of baseball and the average EV of his top-5% hardest-hit balls, as well as the next-20%, were both in the top-15%.

The Bad

While Rios is currently listed as the Dodgers starting third baseman, there is definitely no guarantee he stays that way. The Dodgers could bring back Turner or (because they are the Dodgers) just go buy or trade for an upgrade. And even if they don't bring in someone else, the Dodgers have plenty of players and configurations they can use in the infield.

Evan White, SEA, 381 ADP

14.6% Brl% (92nd percentile)

48.9% Air% 100+ mph (95th percentile)

The Good

For one, White is seemingly locked into a starting job in Seattle because even if the offense falters, his elite defense will keep him on the field. His average EV on balls in the air (85th percentile), his top-5% hardest-hit balls (83rd percentile), and the next-20% (89th percentile) are all excellent but not extraordinary. However, his Brl% and Air% 100+ mph are both elite.

The Bad

Is a 41.6% K% enough to cover the bad? At least carrying only a 15.3% SwStr% says that fewer whiffs may be on the horizon. And White was a high-contact hitter in college before shifting his approach in the pros, so perhaps he just needs more time to adjust before getting his K-rate to a respectable place. Plus, while his .392 wobacon was pretty bad, a .432 xwobacon puts him in a lot better company.

Gregory Polanco, PIT, 398 ADP

12.6 Brl% (84th percentile)

43.6% Air% 100+ mph (91st percentile)

The Good

Polanco played in 83% of the possible games, his highest number since 2016, and hit seven home runs in 174 PA. His 12.6% Brl% was the highest of his career, his Air% 100+ mph was in the top-9% of baseball, and the average EV of his top-5% hardest-hit balls was in the top-5%.

The Bad

He's Gregory Polanco and his entire body is composed of the same stuff that Giancarlo Stanton's calf is made from.

20,000 Leagues Under the ADP

Colin Moran, PIT, 467 ADP

13.6% Brl% (88th percentile)

50.0% Air% 100+ mph (95th percentile)

The Good

Moran came out of the gates on fire, hitting five home runs in his first eight games of 2020, finishing with 10 HR in 200 PA. His Brl%, average EV on balls in the air, Air% 100+ mph, and his top-5% hardest-hit balls were all career highs.

The Bad

He only hit one home run versus a left-hander and posted a .651 OPS and .284 wOBA against LHP for the year. That puts him firmly in the platoon-zone and makes him reaching 550 PA seem fanciful.

Anderson Tejada, TEX, 468 ADP

13.3% Brl%  (87th percentile)

52.6% Air% 100+ mph (97th percentile)

The Good

Who, you might say? Tejada has always had loud tools in the power and speed department but a host of problems on both sides of the ball have kept him from ever reaching higher than High-A in his five years in the Rangers system. But he got a 77 PA cup of coffee in 2020 and hit three home runs with some very loud exit velocities. Besides the above, Tejada had a 95.8 mph average EV on balls in the air that placed him in the 95th percentile.

The Bad

He also had a 39% K-rate overall, and a .220 wOBA and .551 OPS versus LHP.  Tejada doesn't have a clear path to playing time but even with those issues, he's worth keeping an eye on if something opens up.

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