X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Power Risers and Fallers for Week 9 - Buy or Sell?

RotoBaller's Premium Power Surgers tool helps you identify home run risers and fallers to see who is worth adding or streaming In Week 9 of the 2018 fantasy baseball season.

Welcome to Week 9 of the 2018 MLB season and a new week of our investigation into the steepest power trenders in baseball, whether those trends be positive or negative.

As the year rolls into June, the window of opportunity to snag a surging slugger or to deal a down-and-out disappointment grows shorter with every plate appearance. Getting the jump on identifying the catalytic variables and telling trends in these player's recent offensive performances could be the key factor in the management of your roster in the summer months.

To do this, we'll be taking a look at the batting metrics that influence a hitter's power (Fly-Ball%, Pull%, Hard-Hit%, Exit Velocity) and determining whether you should buy or sell respectively on these surgers and strugglers. Since we can already feel confident in the current power play from players like Bryce Harper, Charlie Blackmon, Joey Votto, and Mookie Betts, we are going to be focusing on players who have seen a change in their power profile due to a change in batting metrics and has either warranted greater attention for waiver wire pickups or for a potential trade to cash in on what's left before it's too late.

 

Power Risers

Andrew Benintendi - (OF, BOS)

Andrew Benintendi hasn't been on an overall slugging tear like this since his last season as an Arkansas Razorback. He got off to a less than spectacular start to the season, posting a .740 OPS and just a single HR through April. Since then however he has looked unstoppable at the plate for Boston and has produced a .395/.479/.842 slash line and four homers in the last two weeks. Benintendi's value has always come from his well-rounded offensive talent with an upside towards BA and stolen bases. Considering that his BA/OBP split has remained high at .292/.378 on the year and he has managed to grab eight bags in eight tries (that's a 100% success rate if you did the math), is Benintendi's surge in power legit enough to push his value to the next level?

For one thing, Benintendi has some concerning power splits depending on the circumstances. While he holds a fantastic OPS of .968 in 149 AB against RHP, he can't seem to dial in on lefties as he has managed a figure of just .655 against them. Even more concerning is that in 94 AB on the road in 2018 (nearly 50% of his AB) he has produced an ugly slash line of .202/.315/.330. The power peripherals also don't paint a clear picture of what is to come from Benintendi. While his ISO of .228 is his highest since he made it to the majors, his soft contact rate increased by 1% and his hard contact dropped by a substantial 10%. While his FB and GB percentages have each improved in favor of power, the difference is rather insignificant at less than 2%, and his pull-rate has enjoyed a nice uptick of 10%.

Boston has scored more runs than any other team in baseball. Benintendi's peripherals show uncertainty (average exit velocity of 88.2 mph and average HR of 388 feet both sit well under league average). It's more likely that his streaky affinity to get more XBH at home combined with his speed will reward Fantasy Baseball Managers in the form of increased runs and RBI than it will in more than 20 HR on the year.

 

Devin Mesoraco - (C, NYM)

In 2014 Devin Mesoraco hit 25 HR and received an All-Star selection for his work that year with the Cincinnati Reds. In the three years since, due to numerous injuries and medical procedures, he hit six HR and took just 243 AB. Power hitting or not, it's just good to see him back. He started 2018 slow for the Reds but has exploded since he was shipped to the Mets in exchange for Matt Harvey. He has hit five HR in his 46 AB with New York and has managed three homers and a slash of .290/.371/.645 in the last 14 days.

One thing is for sure: the Mets went out and acquired a catcher because they were in desperate need for one. After Travis D'Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki went down in quick succession and they were forced to resort to Jose Lobaton for a bit, the window of opportunity opened up wide for Mesoraco to make a good first impression. Mesoraco has succeeded in doing so and has produced a hard-contact rate over 30% (32.4%) for the first time since his All-Star campaign of 2014. His pull-rate is still solid at 46.5% and his current fly-ball and ground-ball rates of 43.7% and 36.6% lean far more in favor of power hitting than even Mesoraco's career averages. Mesoraco is still a widely available asset for the difficult catcher slot, not to mention a feel-good story. He looks like a nice offensive option moving forward if he can stay off of the disabled list.

 

Ronald Guzman - (1B, TEX)

Despite a cringe-worthy BA and OBP of .216/.283, the 23-year old Ronald Guzman has achieved a decent offensive performance with six HR and a .448 slugging percentage through the first 116 AB of his major league career. Most of that success has come lately though. He has four of those long balls and a SLG of .600 in the last two weeks (40 AB), though his BA and OBP have barely recovered at all (.225/.295 in that period).  The real issue in trusting the power that Guzman has demonstrated of late is that throughout his minor league career, he displayed a nearly opposite skill set.

Guzman never hit more than 16 HR in a minor league season and his slugging percentage through Triple-A was .421, while on the flip side of that his average BA and OBP for three years at that level was .289/.361. He looked more comparable to Josh Bell than he did to a prototypical slugging first baseman. He even showed the ability to steal 5-7 bases. That appears to be a more realistic expectation when viewing his hard contact rate of 28.8%, GO/FO ratio of 1.16, and average exit velocity of 87 mph.

His plate discipline has tanked since he arrived at the big show and this has prevented his overall offensive performance of reaching the level that he has in the past. Maybe he has just opted to swing for the fences more? Even once his surge of late starts to decline, his skill set still holds sleeper value in the 93% of leagues he is available in.

 

Brandon Crawford - (SS, SF)

Though the 31-year old Brandon Crawford has accumulated several offensive and defensive accolades throughout his career, he is currently on pace for his best season yet at the plate. The veteran infielder had an agonizingly slow-start through April but has recovered tremendously in the last two weeks with three HR and a 1.149 OPS to put his 2018 HR and slash totals at six and .311/.355/.481.

Some of his figures such as FB rate, pull-rate, and strikeout rate have deviated in favor of suppressed power (especially in pitcher-friendly AT&T Park). Yet Crawford has put up an ISO of .166 through dropping his soft contact by about 4% and raising his hard contact by nearly 7% to an impressive total of 39.3%. Crawford has never stolen more than seven bases in a season, a feat which he accomplished back in 2016. He needs this power advantage and subsequent BA/OBP improvement due to harder contact to remain relevant. Add in the extra factor of reliability that is demonstrated through Crawford's nearly identical Home/Away and RHP/LHP OPS splits, and it's no wonder that he has been one of the most rapidly added infielders of the past week.

 

Power Fallers

David Peralta - (OF, ARI)

I'm not the superstitious type, so let's just say that there have been some unfortunate circumstances for the Arizona Diamondbacks. After the first month of the season, David Peralta was rolling with an OPS of .914 and five HR to boot. Since then he has tanked, along with the rest of the Arizona offense, and in the last two weeks has produced a horrendous slash line of .175/.195/.175.

With an exit velocity of 90.7 mph and a hard contact rate of 43.9% (up impressively by 12.1% from 2017!) the problem isn't in Peralta's power when he gets a hold of a ball. However with a GB% all the way up at 54.3% and a FB% subsequently sitting in the trenches at 27.9% with a mediocre 33.8% pull-rate, it is clear that any pop Peralta puts into a pitch is powerless when they end up dribbling into an infielder's glove. On the  bright side Peralta has always hit a high-volume of grounders and has ended up with successful HR totals on numerous occasions, so current horrific slump aside the increase in 2018 hard contact still bodes well for his power moving forward. With half of his batted balls routinely turning into grounders, streakiness is to be expected. He is still available in nearly 40% of leagues if you feel like taking the chance.

 

Scott Schebler - (OF, CIN)

The crowded Reds outfield isn't exactly the place you want to be if you are skidding offensively. Last year Scott Schebler's power manifested itself into 30 HR and a .252 ISO. Like Peralta, Schebler also got off to a hot start in April with a .930 OPS but has faltered tremendously and holds a slash line of .206/.325/.206 and zero homers in the past two weeks (34 AB). So how can Schebler get back on track to recreating his success from 2017?

First off, he is only hitting for hard contact 0.7% less frequently than last year and has decreased his soft contact by 4.2% to 15.1%. The issue, as it was for Peralta, is his GB/FB ratio. In 2017 he was able to turn his hard contact into 30 balls-gone-deep because he held a 45.6% ground ball rate and 38.2% fly ball rate. While these figures are less than ideal, they are much better for power hitting than his figures this season respectively of 58.5% and 25.5%.

This is now a different issue than that of Peralta: Peralta had found success in year's past despite his GB%, while Schebler's only legitimately successful MLB season came with different peripherals entirely. His hard/soft contact rates as well as his average exit velocity of 90.8 mph bring decent tidings, but Schebler won't have close to his value from 2017 if he can't find a way to produce more fly balls. Let this situation play out before you take another dig at Scott Schebler, this skid brings him dangerously close to falling behind and losing even more AB to other young Reds like Adam Duvall.

 

Evan Longoria - (3B, SF)

At first, Evan Longoria looked to be comfortable in making the transition to his new home of San Francisco after ten star-studded seasons in Tampa Bay. With six HR and a .520 slugging percentage through April, Longoria looked a decade away from regression. Since then his power hitting in the confines of pitcher-friendly AT&T Field has plummeted and until Tuesday had failed to hit a single HR in the past 14 days, slugging a rather pedestrian .378. Despite this, not only is there no reason to panic on Longoria, there is actually plenty of reason to buy now.

While his plate discipline is down slightly from his career norm, he still managed a .311/.360 BA/OBP over this recent slump, so there is nothing wrong with his approach. His current ISO of .224 is significantly higher than his mark from 2017 while none of his relevant peripherals such as pull-rate or FB% have deviated significantly from his career averages despite the change in scenery. Most important: his soft contact rate (12.3%) is his lowest figure since 2013 while his current hard contact rate (46.6%) would be his best of his career if the season ended today. That's impressive for a 32-year old playing his first season in a notoriously power-suppressing park.

Mix that in with an average exit velocity and HR distance both sitting above league average (90 mph and 407 feet) and nearly 35% league availability, and the former ROY and MVP candidate looks like a solid buy-low option. Others may have thought that an early 2018 slump spelled the beginning of the end for Evan Longoria, but his move to San Francisco may just have been the start to chapter two.

 

Zack Cozart - (SS/2B/3B, LAA)

After reaching what was so far the highest point of his career in his 2017 All-Star campaign with the Cincinnati Reds, Zack Cozart has struggled to find the same footing as a member of the Los Angeles Angels. Cozart achieved well-rounded offensive success as a member of the Red Legs by accruing a .297/.385/.548 slash with 24 HR last season, but has been only able to reach an OPS of .707 with five HR in his time as one of Mike Trout's newest teammates. This humdrum figure on the year has been mostly spurred on by his two-week slump of late, with a goose egg in the long ball department and a .222/.362/.250 slash.

In terms of overall production Cozart's strikeout rate has increased minimally (1.7%) though his BB% fell by 4.3% from the career-high mark of 12.2% he set in 2017. In terms of power he has still managed an ISO of .163 due to a hard hit rate of 36.5% that is actually the best of his MLB career, while his soft contact dropped to 17.3% (believe it or not, his lowest mark since 2012!). His pull-rate (51.9%) is even his highest major league figure achieved while his fly ball and grounder rates have changed marginally.

His exit velocity is a full three mph below league average while his average HR length is 15 feet shorter than the average league clip. There is a cap to his power, but his well-rounded offensive ability is usually the factor that bridges the gap left by this cap. Cozart has always been a solid offensive option if you were looking for a powerful shortstop. Now that he is eligible at three infield positions and is roughly available in 45% of leagues, the potential rewards if he gets going again soon are exciting, especially as a part of the top-10 run scoring Angels offense.

 

More 2018 MLB Waiver Wire Pickups and Streamers




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Davante Adams

Headlines Rams Receiving Corps Sunday
Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP