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Projecting out a fantasy bust isn’t intended as a total write-off of the player. Sometimes it is, but it’s healthier to approach the ‘bust’ label as a simple reality check. At some point, everyone has to regress.
With fantasy drafts well underway, it’s time to start highlighting those players with bloated expectations for 2023. Rather than rest on the laurels of past successes, we need to evaluate the realistic level of production that can be expected moving forward.
This article covers several American League outfielders who are set up to disappoint compared to their current ADP.
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Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Orioles
Cedric is a solid producer and will be a desired target in every league. Deservedly so. That said, he currently holds a 55 ADP. Coupling that with a widespread belief that Mullins is a fringe top-10 fantasy outfielder, he appears destined to underwhelm.
Undeniably, Mullins is an elite base stealer. In each of his first two full seasons as an MLB starter, he’s posted 30-stolen base campaigns. There’s no reason to suspect that trend isn’t legitimate, and the new pitch clock implementation may even bolster his upside in that regard.
Still, nothing about Cedric’s batted-ball profile is exceptional. In fact, most of his numbers are well below average – .232 xBA, .349 xSLG, 4.9 Barrel %, and 37.3 HardHit%. He managed to outperform the advanced numbers with a .258 BA and .403 SLG, but it’s still not exciting production. Even his 6.7 BB % was subpar. Altogether, Mullins totaled a barely-league-average .318 OBP. Not ideal for a player with stolen bases as his core means of fantasy production.
It appears Mullins is still being drafted off the hype from his 2021 season where he busted out with 30 home runs and a .878 OPS. His metrics tell us that production was the exception not the rule for Cedric, and it would be a surprise to see him approach those figures again. If his advanced metrics are to be taken seriously, he may even have more regression incoming. Mullins won’t be irrelevant for fantasy purposes thanks to his base-stealing, though he is a low-upside pick given his current ADP.
George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays
Coming off an All-Star campaign in 2022, it sounds harsh to highlight Springer as an incoming bust. He managed 25 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a .267/.342/.472 slash line across 133 games in 2022. Those numbers are respectable at first glance, but if we look under the hood, it was a notably down year for George.
Most of Springer’s power-hitting metrics last season fell well below his averages, including a .438 xSLG (.495 career) and a career-low 8.4 Barrel % (10.6% career). George also posted career-highs in Swing % (50.9) and Chase % (25.6), resulting in a 28.2 Whiff % and by far the lowest BB % (9.1) of his career. His 17.2 K % suggests he’s put the ball in play at a consistent rate, though lackluster 88.7 MPH Average Exit Velocity and middling 42.3 HardHit% tell us the quality of contact is far from elite.
Springer turns 34 later this season so it’s safe to assume we’re approaching the end of his prime. Add in the lingering health concerns from recent seasons and declining power numbers, and George’s ceiling looks a lot more limited. Springer’s 59.3 ADP suggests that people are drafting him on name brand and likely hoping for an uptick in production resembling pre-2020 numbers. Instead, don’t be surprised if the regression we saw last year starts to pick up steam.
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
Presumably, we are all aware of Buxton’s greatest pitfall. He simply cannot stay healthy. Many a player has been plagued with an injury-prone reputation, but Buxton earned it. Since arriving in the majors in 2015, Byron has played in more than 92 games just one time in his career – 140 games in 2017. In the five subsequent seasons, he has played in only 307 out of a possible 708 games. Buxton’s 92 appearances last year were the most during that entire span, and that’s barely more than half of a season.
Byron’s power-hitting upside is undeniable. In 2022, he posted elite numbers like a 92.9 MPH Average Exit Velocity, 50.2 HardHit%, .509 xSLG, and 16.4 Barrel%. Buxton’s power surge has also come with its share of setbacks in the form of a .242 xBA, 34.1 Whiff %, and 30.4 K %. While he has never been exceptional in the hitting-for-average department, Byron’s most recent approach appears to have sold out in favor of the long ball. In 2022, nearly 60% of his 76 hits were extra-base hits.
Combining Byron’s weak .224 BA with a middling 8.9 BB % resulted in a below-average .306 OBP last season. For a guy with a reputation as a stolen base threat, that is concerning. Further, despite maintaining an elite sprint speed, Buxton has just 17 stolen bases over the past three seasons, totaling 192 games. It’s not fair to call him a stolen base threat at this point.
Buxton’s career-high 28 home runs in 2022 put him on pace for nearly 50 home runs if translated into 162 games. Unfortunately, expecting him to play even 100 games is a major leap of faith, considering he’s only done so once in his career. With an ADP currently at 108, drafting Byron that high does not seem worth the risk. Power-hitting is his only apparent upside with diminishing returns on stolen bases and OBP and a notoriously decorated injury history.
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