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Nicho's H2H points fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for pitchers in Week 7 (2025) -- May 12 - May 18. Free-agent pitchers to add in points leagues.
The baseball season is cruising by! Welcome to Week 7 of our weekly column for starting pitchers to target in points leagues. This article examines a handful of pitchers owned in less than 50 percent of leagues (according to Yahoo) who fantasy managers should consider adding to their roster sooner rather than later. Last week, we saw some good and some bad, but overall, these articles and recommendations have been hitting at a pretty solid clip. Check out these articles to search previous weeks' recommendations and make sure some of these diamonds in the rough aren't on your waiver wire!
For those new to this weekly column, this article examines top waiver wire pickups that are either a good streamer for the upcoming week or a long-term investment. At the bottom of each player I talk about, I will make a recommendation for that player and if I view them as a long-term or short-term investment. I want readers to know that I fully planned to feature Tony Gonsolin, but he has soared up to 57 percent owned from 33 percent in Week 6. There is my shameless plug to pick him up if he's available, as I can't feature him in this article anymore.
Keep following @RotoBallerMLB and me, @NichoRoessler, on X to stay updated with the latest content. You can always message me your fantasy baseball questions; I am happy to provide input! Best of luck this week, and let's keep swinging for the fences!
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Matthew Boyd, SP, Chicago Cubs
42% Rostered
Come on down, Matthew Boyd! He has been sitting in our Tier 1 honorable mentions for the past three or four weeks, and it's time to give him a call-up to the top four. Boyd has had a gauntlet of a schedule and has held his own so far, owning a 2.75 ERA in 39 1/3 innings pitched. He has faced the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres twice, Los Angeles Dodgers twice, and San Francisco Giants last week.
Besides the Padres, all those teams rank in the top 10 in MLB in runs scored. The Padres have struggled offensively to stay healthy, mainly due to losing Luis Arraez for a week, Jackson Merrill for a little over a month, and Jake Cronenworth for a few weeks. Even then, they still own a team .258 average, which is still in the top 10 in MLB.
Enough about who Boyd has faced. Why is he so successful thus far this season compared to his career 4.76 ERA? Well, for starters, the 34-year-old's fastball and breaking velocity are both up from 2024 (1.1 mph on four-seamer and 1.8 mph on breaking pitches), and he is using his fastball to his advantage and more effectively, throwing it 44.9 percent of the time compared to 38.7 percent in 2024.
Matthew Boyd was dialed in tonight against the Giants.
He struck out seven batters over six innings of two-run ball.
San Francisco was held to an average EV of 83.4 mph while Boyd generated 30% whiffs—50% against his changeup!
— The Wrigley Wire (@TheWrigleyWire) May 6, 2025
Boyd also throws his slider more in 2025 (20.6 percent) than in 2024 (17.3 percent). He is holding opponents to a .200 BA on his curveball, and has 9.4 inches of drop and 12.7 inches of break on that pitch, both above the league average. All this put together, he is generating a great chase percentage (74th percentile), and he is above the 76th percentile in average exit velocity (77th percentile), barrel percentage (86th percentile), and hard-hit percentage (80th percentile).
Boyd's underlying metrics (3.52 xERA and 3.98 SIERA) show some regression signs. Still, he is producing at a high level, throwing harder, getting more movement on his curveball, missing barrels, and putting together a solid campaign, and shouldn't be overlooked. In addition, he gets the Chicago White Sox next week, which doesn't get any better than that.
Recommendation: Boyd has a smash spot in Week 7 against the White Sox, but I also like him for the long haul. The number-one run-scoring offense in MLB backs him and is producing at a high level. Use a waiver wire bid, or about 10-15 percent of your FAAB.
Michael Wacha, SP, Kansas City Royals
40% Rostered
Michael Wacha Flocka Flame! In all seriousness, he hates that nickname apparently. The 33-year-old right-hander is having a phenomenal season so far in 2025. He owns a 2.98 ERA, 3.11 FIP, and 1.15 WHIP through his first eight starts. Although I expect a bit of regression, shown by his 3.73 xERA and 4.37 SIERA, I believe he can continue to be a reliable arm for fantasy managers in 2025 and Week 7.
In Week 7, he is slated to take on the Houston Astros, whom he dominated on April 26, going six innings, allowing four hits, two walks, and striking out six batters. In addition, it seems that this time, the Astros will be without their superstar, Yordan Alvarez, and this Astros team ranks in the bottom half of most offensive statistical categories. Wacha is also slated to start Sunday against the St. Louis Cardinals, his former team, in what looks like a two-start week for him.
Wacha primarily relies on his location to be successful, as evidenced by his 104 Location+. His pitching run value, fastball run value, breaking run value, and offspeed run value all rank in the top 25th percentile, meaning he pitches well in the clutch or in "high-leverage situations" and knows the art behind what it takes to be a successful MLB pitcher. Which honestly makes sense; he has only been pitching for 13 years.
Michael Wacha, 93mph Paint. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/skHF6fG1xw
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 8, 2025
Diving a bit more into the numbers, Wacha relies on his six-pitch arsenal, but primarily features his four-seam fastball and changeup, of which he throws 33.8 and 27.0 percent, respectively. He also mixes in a cutter, sinker, slider, and curveball to keep hitters on their toes, and is effective in doing so, evidenced by his ability to limit loud contact. He owns a 34.6 percent hard-hit rate (81st percentile) and an 87.4 mph average exit velocity (82nd percentile).
Recommendation: Ride Wacha during this current hot streak and the two-start week in Week 7, and go from there. Spend 5-10 percent of your FAAB, as I would not recommend him as a top waiver wire pickup.
Jameson Taillon, SP, Chicago Cubs
35% Rostered
I'll admit, I haven't always been the biggest Jameson Taillon supporter, but he has proved me wrong for six of his last seven starts. Since his first start on March 28, he has given the Chicago Cubs three earned runs or less and five or more innings pitched in his last six out of seven starts. In addition, his K/9 is up to 7.21 from 6.80 in 2024.
For the season, Taillon (2-2) has thrown 43 2/3 innings, has a 19.3 percent strikeout rate, a 5 percent walk rate, and a 4.53 ERA. These are not necessarily the best numbers of all time, but you must acknowledge the consistency in quality starts at some point. So, why is he having success in 2025?
For starters, he ranks in the 72nd percentile in average exit velocity, 79th percentile in chase rate, 86th percentile in walk rate, and 80th percentile in extension. This indicates that he is limiting loud contact and not allowing free passes. His extension has improved, which has gone from 6.7 feet in 2024 to 6.8 feet in 2025, giving the perception that he is throwing harder based on his extension. In addition, he has gained 1 mph on his four-seamer as well.
His four-seamer averages 18.4 inches of rise and 8.2 inches of tail, above league average. Because of the improvement to his four-seamer, he has been able to leverage all of his other pitches off it to find more success and generate more chase. His sweeper is also "sweeping" more than the league average at 15.6 inches of vertical break.
Jameson Taillon, Dirty 81mph Sweeper...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/ib0ELpP2B6
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 3, 2025
Lastly, he is spotting his pitches well, with a 110 Location+ this season. Any time a pitcher can limit free passes, spot up their pitches, and improve their arsenal year over year, they have a good chance to see improvements, which is what is happening to Taillon.
In Week 7, he gets a solid matchup against the Miami Marlins, so although his outing on May 9 against the New York Mets was rough, I'd be willing to buy the dip, and I'll pay to find out.
Recommendation: Pick up Taillon for Week 7 against the Miami Marlins in a smash spot and see where that takes you. Spend only 5 percent of your FAAB; I would not recommend him as a top waiver wire pickup.
Ryan Weathers, SP, Miami Marlins
10% Rostered
Miami Marlins left-hander Ryan Weathers is tentatively lined up to make his 2025 debut on May 14 against the Chicago Cubs. He was a recommended sleeper by many experts coming into the season. A forearm injury caused him to miss the start of this season, but he is coming off a solid season in 2024 with a 3.63 ERA, 21.8 percent strikeout rate, and a 1.18 WHIP in 86 2/3 innings pitched.
Weathers had made tremendous strides since his first taste of MLB in 2021. He was a former seventh overall pick by the San Diego Padres and a highly rated prospect who was dealt to the Marlins in 2023. What is most impressive about Weathers' game is that he generates a healthy amount of ground balls (47.6 percent), has a great fastball (95.6 average mph and hit 99 mph in his recent outing), and has reasonable control (6.5 percent walk rate).
Ryan Weathers in his 3rd (and final?) minor league rehab start:
5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K (57 pitches/40 strikes)
Fastball up to 99 mph 🔥 pic.twitter.com/6HDjwc1yAI
— Fish On First (@FishOnFirst) May 9, 2025
The Marlins have a way with developing pitchers (think vintage Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Max Meyer, and Eury Perez), and he should get an extended look in the starting rotation as long as he stays healthy. In 10 2/3 innings pitched in three rehab starts in MiLB, he owns a 1.69 ERA and a 10.97 K/9.
Outside of his fastball velocity, his best pitches are his sweeper and changeup. In 2024, he allowed opponents to a .193 BA on his changeup and a .115 on the sweeper. His four-seamer was hit around a bit, evident by the .313 BA, but if he can get better command of the four-seamer and continue to leverage the offspeed to generate chase and whiffs, he has the upside to be a solid long-term investment.
He will likely continue to ramp up his progress and be on a pitch count in his first few starts, but Weathers should be rostered for the long haul.
Recommendation: Do not start him against the Cubs, but roster him immediately before your league mates do. Be willing to spend 10-15 percent FAAB or a waiver wire bid. He is someone I like for the long haul.
Honorable Mentions - Others To Prioritize
I understand that deeper leagues may not have the players listed above available, so check out the list below for pitchers to add to your watch list or stream this week based on their matchups (Tier 2).
Tier 1: Team Streamers
Pitchers Who Could Stick Around, But We Need To See More Consistency From or Improved Underlying Numbers
- Brayan Bello, BOS
- Lucas Giolito, BOS
- Merrill Kelly, ARI
- Lance McCullers Jr., HOU
- Gunnar Hoglund, ATH
- Tomoyuki Sugano, BAL
- Cade Horton, CHC (making MLB debut soon and is No. 46 in MLB pipeline's top 100)
- Tyler Anderson, LAA
- Luis Severino, ATH
- Michael Lorenzen, KC
- Michael Soroka, WSN
- Chase Dollander, COL
Tier 2: Plus Matchup Only
One And Done
- Ben Brown, CHC (great matchup against Marlins in Week 7)
- Colin Rea, CHC (two-start week and gets MIA and CWS, very strong streamer for Week 7, I debated him over Weathers for the last spot)
- David Peterson, NYM (faces PIT)
- Dean Kremer, BAL (just faced MIN and did well, gets them again in Week 7)
- Nick Martinez, CIN (faces CWS)
- Graham Achcraft, CIN (faces CWS)
Tier 3: Desperation Tier
You've Probably Made Some Bad Choices Already
- Chris Paddack, MIN
- Emerson Hancock, SEA
- Cal Quantrill, MIA
- Kyle Freeland, COL
- Antonio Senzatela, COL
- Kyle Gibson, BAL
- Sean Burke, CWS
- Jonathan Cannon, CWS
- Bryse Wilson, CWS
- Simeon Woods Richardson, MIN
- Zack Littell, TB
- Patrick Corbin, TEX
Tier 4: The Stashbox
If you can stash these players on your IL or NA spot, I would do it sooner rather than later
- Bubba Chandler, PIT
- Brandon Woodruff, MIL (making debut May 12 and is owned in 64 percent of leagues, so make sure he is not on your waiver wire)
- Eury Perez, MIA
- Luis Gil, NYY
- Zebby Matthews, MIN
- Andrew Painter, PHI (Made Triple-A debut on May 8)
- Max Scherzer, TOR
- Sean Manaea, NYM
- Hayden Birdsong, SF (reliever right now, but could be in line for a big starting spot in the Giants rotation with an injury or performance issues)
- Spencer Arrighetti, HOU
- Kutter Crawford, BOS
- Yu Darvish, SD
- Max Scherzer, TOR
- Clayton Kershaw, LAD
- Shane Bieber, CLE
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