X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

How to Approach High-Stakes Leagues in 2020 (Part 1)

With the possibility of a shortened 2020 MLB season, Brian Rudd looks at the evolving strategies for winning high stakes fantasy baseball leagues on NFBC.

While it's not clear which of the proposed scenarios will be ultimately be used, there is hope that games will eventually be played in 2020. We may not know what the season will look like but drafts are still taking place, including those hosted on the gold standard of high-stakes competition, the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. However, the highest-stakes games (with entry fees ranging from $1,000 - $15,000) have been put on hold until the shape of the eventual season is actually known.

As many of these leagues were just a few days away from taking place when baseball ground to a halt, much of the prep work had already been done. But with a shortened season and a possibility of not all teams playing in their home parks, owners will need to reassess their values on players while we have this downtime. Some owners may be hesitant to throw big money into what amounts to be just a half-season but as excited as everyone will be to have any season at all, signups are unlikely to fall off too much.

This is the first column in a two-part series that will be focusing on preparing for these high stakes leagues but much of the discussion will also apply to the majority of other leagues. In this first piece, we'll discuss the value (or lack thereof) in looking at ADP and tackle how to handle saves on draft day.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Overview Of The Contests

There are several high stakes options to choose from at NFBC, all of which are no-trade leagues. Some are "standalone" formats where you play only against your league, while others have an overall component, in which you also simultaneously compete in a league composed of all teams in every league. There are a few variations of a 15-team standalone format, as well as one 12-team standalone option ($2,500 entry fee).

Of the leagues with an overall aspect, the Main Event ($1,700) is the most popular contest, with 570 teams in the mix in 2019. NFBC also made a new addition in 2020, the Solo Shot ($1,000), where the main differences between it and the Main Event are that owners can enter only once (hence the name), and waivers run once a month, rather than every week.

All of the NFBC high stakes leagues are standard 5x5 scoring, but strategies may differ based on format. For example, punting a category can be a viable option in a standalone league, but that's not the case in leagues like the Main Event and Solo Shot. Owners simply can't afford to be near the bottom of a category and still compete in the overall standings, as they'll need to acquire 90 percent of the possible points to win the overall title.

 

Accounting For Uncertainty Heading Into 2020

Something I like to do prior to draft day is look at past years' results in the formats to get a general idea of what goals to shoot for in each category. Keeping an eye on your projected stats during the draft can be helpful in determining what category you need to focus on as the draft progresses. On the NFBC site, you can find all of last season's results for the overall standings, as well as each individual league.

For example, here's what it took to reach the 90th and 80th percentile in each category in the 2019 Main Event:

% Runs HR RBI SB BA K W Sv ERA WHIP
90th 1,190 373 1,144 136 0.271 1,527 100 82    3.72 1.18
80th 1,149 360 1,107 126 0.269 1,476 95 73 3.85 1.20

Seeing that we seem to be heading towards a season with about half the amount the games, splitting those numbers in half leaves us with:

% Runs HR RBI SB BA K W Sv ERA WHIP
90th  595 187  572  68 0.271  764 50 41    3.72 1.18
80th  575 180  554  63 0.269  738  48 37 3.84 1.20

These numbers vary from year-to-year but it's going to be incredibly difficult to set goals in each category this season given all of the uncertainty and not just things that are pandemic related. Keep in mind how the juiced ball inflated the offensive numbers in 2019 and how different the run-scoring environment could be depending on what ball is used. Then there's the wrench thrown in by the possibility of not all ballparks being used, which will affect the offensive environment even more.

The season is going to be much shorter but it's probably not going to be as easy as using simple math to pro-rate the categories. We'll likely see fewer off days, more double-headers, and more six-man rotations. As a result, even the front-line starters could end up throwing a lower percentage of their team's innings. This compressed schedule would also result in even the top closers missing out on a couple save chances since they may not be available due to having fewer off-days built-in.

On the hitting side, the tightened schedule will probably mean more frequent rest for position players who are usually locked into the lineup. Rosters are also likely to be expanded which would add to the appeal of giving guys a day off. And with bigger rosters available, we're probably going to see more platoon situations than we are used to.

So if the regular season ends up being right at half of a normal season, it will be beneficial to shave off more than half of a player's projection in many cases. No matter what, though, having a sense of where your team stands in each category throughout the draft is important, so you can make sure to finish with a balanced roster.

 

What To Do With ADP

Tracking ADP (average draft position) can be extremely useful, as it helps owners size up the market while giving them a general idea of what point in drafts a player should be targeted. Relying too much on this data is harmful, however, as every draft is different and owners shouldn't always count on a player being there in the next round just because ADP says he usually is.

It's often said that ADP can be thrown out the window when it comes to high-stakes leagues, as owners won't hesitate to "reach" for their guy by several rounds. This will likely be the case even more in 2020, as the shortened season alone is enough to dramatically change the value of many players. If most teams end up playing in parks other than their own, ADP up to this point would be rendered essentially meaningless.

With this in mind, if you're going to utilize ADP, make sure to sort by date in order to eliminate the noise of pre-pandemic drafts and use only the most recent and relevant data. The drafts over at NFBC are constantly happening, so there will be quite a few that will take between the time the 2020 rules are established and the time the high stakes drafts get going.

Even so, the sample will be too small to draw any meaningful conclusions from, and as stated above, savvy owners will lean heavily on their own values, even if it goes against ADP. This year, more than ever, it's important to know your values for players heading into drafts and be willing to pay up for your guy even if the ADP doesn't agree.

 

Locking Up Saves On Draft Day

There are many different approaches when it comes to drafting closers. Some owners like to pay up for one top closer, and grab another in the double-digit rounds, while others tend to live in the mid-range of options. Some owners prefer grabbing just one guy they can count on, then throw darts at a couple of late-round options. Some even ignore the category on draft day altogether, either punting the category- a viable but risky option in standalone leagues- or planning to attack the category in-season.

Closers are a highly sought after commodity when they are available during the season, and the no-trading aspect of NFBC enhances that effect. When a pitcher moves into the 9th inning role in-season during a typical year, he will often go for several hundred dollars out of the allotted $1,000 free-agent budget.

To reach the 80th percentile in saves in 2019, you would have had to either hit on two top closers or deploy a third closer for at least part of the season. With less time to find saves in-season in 2020, it will be more important than ever to come away from the draft table with at least two reliable closers.

With a shorter season coming in 2020, there is going to be less time to find saves on the waiver wire, and more money on average for owners to spend each week. As a result, it may cost significantly more than usual to acquire a new closer during the season. Furthermore, speculating on a closer-in-waiting will be more difficult, as stashing a player for a few weeks will eat up a valuable roster spot for a larger chunk of the season than it would in a normal year.

Another reason to draft established closers instead of relying on more speculative picks is all of the uncertainty that still exists at the back of many bullpens. Several teams have yet to anoint a closer, while others are sure to rely on multiple arms to handle 9th inning duties - a strategy we have seen more of in recent years. This gives more value to the guys who already have the job. Perhaps the leash will be shorter than usual on a shaky closer, but that will vary from team to team and is tough to predict.

In both 2018 and 2019, 13 closers were selected among the first 120 picks in NFBC drafts. But pre-pandemic, the price of closers had been dropping for most of the draft season, with that number dropping to just six in the 225 drafts that took place between November 2019 through the end of January 2020. The prices had started to normalize prior to the stoppage of play, with nine closers going inside the top 120, and that number is sure to rise even further once drafting picks up steam again. Even so, locking in at least two options you feel good about should be a priority on draft day, as acquiring saves in-season will be costly, and more difficult to achieve than in years' past.

In the next column of this two-part series, we'll examine how to manage your FAAB budget in high stakes leagues in 2020 as well as take a look at a few pitchers moving up draft boards.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP