RADIO
When it comes down to facing a fantasy draft, two numbers are often the most sought after by fantasy GMs: current ADP and overall rank from the prior season. No matter how experienced fantasy players are, those two numbers are thought of as the ultimate all-encompassing representations of every football player's value. Knowing what he did in the league the last year and where he is getting drafted this season should be more than enough to make a reasonably good projection going forward, isn't it?
Turns out, those two numbers can be way misleading. Today, I'm here to focus on last season's overall rank of players, that is, where they ranked among peers in 2019. The fact that someone finished the year as a second-tier (RB13 to RB24) running back in total points doesn't mean he wasn't better than players at the first tier in the position. What if that player missed some games, getting fewer chances to rack up points? Take Melvin Gordon. He finished RB22 in 2019 but missed the first four games of the season entirely. His PPG ranked at a much more realistic RB14 place. What if he had played a full 16-game schedule?
Up next, I will point out some players that experienced this in 2019 and how to assess their fantasy upside for 2020, either for the good (worth drafting now even if they looked bad!) or for the bad (worth avoiding even if they looked great!). Let's get to it!
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Players Worth Drafting
QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
I think there is no better player to kick this off than Matthew Stafford. His case can't be more obvious, to be fair. Stafford played just eight games before he was forced out of the season, which clearly impacted his overall finish among quarterbacks in 2019. Even with such a short playing stint, Stafford was able to rack up enough points to close the year as the QB29, almost a borderline QB2.
That is not what matters here, though. The most important data point comes from Stafford's per-game average of 21.1 PPG, which ranked sixth overall (all positions considered) last season. Only Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott beat Stafford on a per-game basis through the year, which shows how great the Lions QB was during his time on the field.
For the 2020 season fantasy GMs seem to be realizing Stafford's potential, but not entirely yet. Stafford is currently the QB14 off the board, yet PFF has him projected to 271 PPR points over the year (QB8 and 17th-best player overall). If you're not making Stafford a target in your drafts you're missing out big time.
RB James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers
In a similar narrative as that of Stafford, James Conner was able to play seven games from Week 1 to Week 8 but could only log three stat lines from Week 9 to the end of the season. That's why his two-half split in 2019 came down to 126.6 PPR in the first half compared to just 20.9 in the second. All in all, Conner could only finish as RB35 last season with 147.5 PPR points.
Looking at fantasy points per game instead of total PPR points, Conner's true production pops up: the Steelers running back averaged 14.8 PPG, which would have ranked 16th among all rushers and 15th among those with more than one game played (sorry, Wes Hills).
Although that 14.8 mark is way lower than his 2018 one (21.5 for 280 PPR), it is still much closer to his average per-game performance levels than if we compare his total points over the season. Conner is back healthy and although he's yet to play more than 14 games over a year here's to hope he can log a full 16-game season. PFF has Conner projected to finish the year as an RB2, although a season-long average of around 14.5 PPG would make him a low-end RB1 in 2020 (in PFF projections).
Players Worth Avoiding
RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
I'm not saying you should entirely avoid Henry, but you should definitely consider other options with your first-round pick if you have Henry among your targets. Last season, Henry finished as the RB5 and 11th-best player overall. The problem for Henry reaching those heights is how he did it.
Henry needed all of 303 rushing attempts, 1,540 yards, and 16 rushing touchdowns (all league-leading marks) to get to that RB5 spot. Since 2010, there have been only 24 player-seasons from RBs with at least 300 carries, just nine with those attempts plus 1,500 yards, and a paltry two with those carries+yards plus 16 TD (Arian Foster's 2010). The odds for Henry to repeat are slim at best.
While Henry played great football for Tennesse, the Titans lacked a proper quarterback for half a season, didn't have reliable receivers until A.J. Brown's explosion from Week 12 on, and Henry himself had three 30+ PPR games in 2019. He also had five weeks in which he couldn't even break the RB2 mark, making him the ultimate boom/bust play. The chances at another overly-high finish are very low, so you'd better spend your first-round pick in another, more steady/efficient player.
WR Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals
Boyd played every single game for the Bengals in 2019, something he couldn't do in 2018 when he missed a couple. When all was said and done, Boyd found himself ranked 54th overall in the NFL and as the WR18 in PPR-format leagues, good for a high-end WR2. The raw numbers of Boyd's 2019 season look great, indeed, but the story of how he get there is rather hard to see unfolding again in 2020.
At different points through the 2019 season, Boyd shared the field with WRs Alex Erickson, Auden Tate, Damion Willis, John Ross, and Stanley Morgan among others. Of those, only Erickson was able to feature in all of Cincinnati's games. Barring Tate, Boyd was the clear go-to guy for the Bengals last season and that's why he finished with 148 targets (7th-most in the league) and over 1,000 yards.
Entering 2020, Cincinnati will thrust rookie-QB Joe Burrow to a starting quarterback role. Not only that, but Boyd will have to fight (assuming healthy seasons) against long-time stud WR A.J. Green coming back, John Ross, Auden Tate, and recently-drafted Tee Higgins. Even if he remains efficient, Boyd chances at another top-18 finish aren't great if only because of the sure-to-come drop in volume. PFF has Boyd projected to finish 2020 with 111 targets (37 fewer than in 2019) and as the WR22, or borderline WR2.
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