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Thairo Estrada 2023 Outlook: Boring Volume Play Best Used in Deeper Leagues
2 years agoThairo Estrada came out of nowhere to post a solid fantasy campaign in 2022, slashing .260/.322/.402 with 14 HR and 21 SB in 541 PAs. Estrada offers plus speed with a Statcast Sprint of 28.3 ft./sec and a solid success rate of approximately 78%, so fantasy managers can probably count on him for bags assuming playing time. Unfortunately, his contact quality metrics aren't nearly as good. His .290 BABIP might look due for positive regression, but his .246 xBA suggests that Estrada was somewhat fortunate last season. Furthermore, Estrada doesn't hit many flies (29.5 FB% last season) or hit them especially hard (91.4 mph average airborne exit velocity, 4.4% Brls/BBE), so it's tough to see where another 14 HR would come from. Estrada offers strong plate discipline with a 6.1 BB% and 16.5 K%, but he probably doesn't have the ceiling to warrant consideration in standard leagues on draft day. However, his projected role as San Francisco's second hitter should give him valuable counting stats for deeper formats. In most leagues, he also qualifies at 2B, SS, and OF. Throw in 15-20 steals and there's likely profit potential at Estrada's current ADP of 186.45.
