March 9, 2025
Brad Keselowski of RFK Racing earned a starting position of 20th for this week's race at Phoenix Raceway. This will be the fifth time in his Cup career that Keselowski will start a race at Phoenix inside the top 20. In 31 races at the Arizona track, Keselowski has 26 top-20 finishes, including each of the last four Cup events. In practice, Keselowski ranked 26th in overall lap averages and showcased top-20 speeds in all other eligible categories. With his salary being around the middle of the pack ($8,000 on DraftKings), decent upside, and favorable track history at Phoenix, Keselowski is not a bad choice to consider for all DFS formats.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
March 9, 2025
Team Penske's Austin Cindric will start 14th for the Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix Raceway. It will be the fourth time that Cindric will start a race at the Arizona track inside the top 15. In six previous starts at Phoenix, Cindric has two top-20 finishes and only scored positive Place Differential once. In practice, Cindric ranked 13th in overall lap averages while displaying top-10 speeds in the 10, 15, 20, and 25 consecutive lap average categories. Although Cindric's practice speeds are an encouraging sign of a quality finish, especially with top-notch Team Penske equipment, his track history at Phoenix has not been great and makes him a risk to add to lineups. As a result, Cindric is best utilized as a tournament play for this week's race at Phoenix.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
March 9, 2025
Kyle Busch of Richard Childress Racing will start 15th for this week's Phoenix Raceway Cup event, the Shriners Children's 500. This will be Busch's highest starting position at a race at the Arizona track since 2023. In 39 starts at Phoenix, Busch has three wins and 26 top-10 finishes. The No. 8 Chevrolet driver last scored a top-10 at Phoenix in the March 2023 race but also finished with positive Place Differential in his last two races at the site. In practice, Busch ranked second in overall lap averages while ranking among the top 20 fastest in almost all categories. With Phoenix overall being a favorable track for Busch and his solid practice speeds, Busch can be utilized in any DFS format, but his upside, which is average overall, makes him more favored as a tournament play than a cash game play.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
March 9, 2025
Spire Motorsports driver Michael McDowell earned a starting position of seventh for this week's Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix Raceway. This start position matches McDowell's highest of his Cup career from the March 2023 Cup event at Phoenix. In 28 races completed at the Arizona track, McDowell has five top-20 finishes, with three of them being scored in the last four Cup events at the site. In practice, McDowell ranked 31st in overall lap averages but surprisingly displayed top-10 speeds in all other categories. McDowell's recent Phoenix history and Spire equipment do show promise to gathering a solid finish, but he does have low upside from his starting position. Overall, McDowell works best as a tournament play likely to have low ownership, who can pay off with a top-10 finish.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
March 9, 2025
Ty Gibbs of Joe Gibbs Racing will start 34th for this Sunday's Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix Raceway. This is by far the worst starting position of his Cup career to date for Gibbs at Phoenix. In four previous races at the site, Gibbs has one top-5 finish while the rest of his finishes were outside of the top 20, where he also lost Place Differential. In practice, Gibbs ranked 34th in overall lap averages but showcased top-20 speeds in all other categories. Based on his equipment and incredibly high upside, Gibbs is a playable driver to consider adding in all formats despite his lackluster Phoenix history.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
March 9, 2025
Austin Dillon of Richard Childress Racing will start 21st for the Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix Raceway. The last time Dillon started in that position at Phoenix was in the November 2023 race at the site, where he went on to finish 12th. In 22 starts at Phoenix, Dillon has 13 top-20 finishes while earning positive Place Differential in four of the last five Cup events at the site. In practice, Dillon ranked 29th in overall lap averages and displayed top-20 speeds in the 15, 20, 25, and 30 consecutive lap average categories. Although Dillon's Phoenix history has been hit or miss, his practice speeds, starting position, and low salary ($5,800 on DraftKings), make him an overall solid driver to consider for all formats this week.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
March 9, 2025
Haas Factory Team's Cole Custer will start 23rd for this week's Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix Raceway. This will be Custer's first race at the Arizona track since 2022 and will be the third time he will start outside of the top 20. In six races at Phoenix, Custer has four top-20 finishes while gaining positive PD twice. In 10 Xfinity Series races at Phoenix, Custer has one win and eight top-10 finishes. In practice for this week's race, Custer ranked seventh in overall lap averages and ranked as high as 18th in 30 consecutive lap averages. Custer looked decent in practice, has favorable Phoenix track history from both his Xfinity and Cup stats, and his salary makes him easy to add to rosters this week. Considering how his team also has a tech alliance with RFK Racing, Custer is an overall underrated DFS option likely to place in the top 20.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
March 9, 2025
Tyler Reddick has lately seemed to exchange some of his blinding speed from previous years for a nearly robotic consistency. Phoenix hasn't been one of his best tracks as short tracks and one mile ovals tend not to suit him, but he's still earned four top tens in his last six starts including two third-place finishes. In last year's winter race, he tied his boss Denny Hamlin for the most laps led with 68, but he has seldom factored for the win otherwise. The Toyotas utterly dominated last year's event to the point of nearly sweeping the laps led, but they don't seem as fast this year, and Reddick is starting 9th, a little worse than last year. If you think he'll lead a lot, he's definitely one of the best DFS options, especially since at $9,200 he's cheaper than many other contenders. He probably won't lead much though.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
Chase Briscoe got the reprieve of a lifetime when his 100 point penalty at the Daytona 500 was rescinded last Wednesday. On paper, Briscoe should be extremely valuable for DFS lineups since he is starting 30th (worse than he has ever qualified here) but he has also earned top tens in four of his ten Phoenix starts including winning the first Next Gen race here in 2022 for a rapidly declining Stewart-Haas Racing team. Considering the Toyotas led almost all of last year's event here, with Briscoe's predecessor Martin Truex, Jr. leading 55 laps in the winter and winning the pole in the fall, Briscoe seems like he should be a very strong contender for a top ten, but the qualifying is puzzling. Normally the expected position gain would be enough to start him for DFS, but he also seems potentially overvalued at $9,000, so it's an iffy proposition.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
Although short tracks have become arguably Bubba Wallace's best track type in terms of finishes, Phoenix isn't a short track and Wallace usually qualifies poorly and runs in the upper midfield here. However, his 19th-place qualifying run yesterday was actually tied for the second-best of his career and he has finished between 7th and 16th in his last four starts, with his best career finish coming in last year's finale. Despite the speed the Toyotas have here Wallace is unlikely to lead as he has only led four laps at the track ever, but he stands a good chance at gaining some positions and collecting a solid finish. He's not likely to be a top ten points scorer on DraftKings, but at $7,300 he is a lot cheaper than most of the drivers who are, so there is some value.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
John Hunter Nemechek of Legacy Motor Club obtained a starting position of 36th after qualifying for this week's Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix Raceway. This is the lowest starting position of Nemechek's Cup career to date at Phoenix and the first time he will start outside of the top 30 at the site. In five starts at Phoenix, Nemechek's best finish is 25th, and he also has two finishes with positive Place Differential. In practice, Nemechek ranked 20th in overall lap averages while ranking as high as 31st in 25 consecutive lap averages. Nemechek's practice speeds were not impressive, and his Phoenix history also is not great. Still, his enormous upside from his starting position makes him worth consideration as a safe cash game play, especially for his cheap salary ($5,300).
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
March 9, 2025
After the embarrassment of crashing himself and his possible replacement, Connor Zilisch, out last week at Austin, Daniel Suárez will be eager to prove himself at Phoenix, but his 31st-place starting position is tied for the second-worst of his career here, and that came when he was driving for Gaunt Brothers Racing. However, his worst starting position came in the last race at Phoenix in last year's finale, where he started 34th and recovered to a 10th-place finish, his third straight top-15 finish and his fourth with the Next Gen car. He has never led a lap here, and he presumably won't on Sunday, but he is likely to finish better than he starts. Since he costs only $7,100 in DFS and is likely to score place-differential points, he's definitely an interesting low-cost option, especially because he really made the option tire work for him last year at Richmond.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
Josh Berry has a knack for qualifying in the NASCAR Cup Series although it often escapes notice. After seven top five qualifying runs in his rookie season and another at Atlanta this year, he starts on the outside of Row 2 at Phoenix today, the best starting position on a non-drafting oval for the No. 21 car since Matt DiBenedetto at Michigan in 2021. Since the Wood Brothers is currently a Team Penske satellite and Penske tends to place disproportionate focus on this track because it hosts the championship race, it might not be surprising Berry is fast, but while he sometimes shows the propensity to battle for the lead and could earn some lap leader points for DFS, he's also the most crash-prone driver and hardly consistent enough to be worth betting on. It wouldn't be surprising if he ran well, but he'll likely finish worse than he starts.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
Considering Erik Jones has been one of the weakest qualifiers in the NASCAR Cup Series in recent years, the fact that Jones qualified fifth for Sunday's race at Phoenix may come as a surprise. However, he has qualified in the top 10 nine times here, including thrice with Legacy Motor Club. But after being dropped from Joe Gibbs Racing, he has never come close to contending here as his best finish in the No. 43 car has been 14th, although he did have a 10th-place average running position in the 2023 finale. It's possible that his cars are faster since Ben Beshore became his crew chief or he is faster since he has healed from last year's injury, but since he qualified fourth last year and ran poorly, you shouldn't count on him, and Legacy's recent history suggests he won't finish well.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
March 9, 2025
Noah Gragson may fade in the background more than any other NASCAR Cup Series driver lately, but his record at Phoenix is really solid as he finished 12th in both events last year and he was actually by far the highest-placed finisher for Stewart-Haas Racing in their final race in last year's finale. Although he qualified only 33rd in his first Phoenix race for Front Row Motorsports, he'll probably have speed because FRM is a Team Penske satellite and Penske has repeatedly gone on all in on Phoenix. Although the TV coverage won't likely pay much attention, expect him to gain a lot of positions in the race. Since he is only valued at $6,800, he's not only a good option for DFS lineups - he's practically a must-have.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
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