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J.D. Martinez 2021 Outlook: Better Than 2020 But Not Worth The Price Tag
4 years agoRed Sox slugger J.D. Martinez is in the running for most disappointing 2020 after slashing just .213/.291/.389 with seven homers in 237 PAs. The reason why is simple: his average exit velocity declined significantly on both airborne batted balls (93.9 mph vs. 95.1 in 2019) and grounders (82.6 mph vs. 87.5). He also hit a lot more fly balls (34.8% in 2019, 43.5% last year) in a season where his HR/FB cratered (23.4% in 2019, 10.4 last season), leading to a lot of lazy flies that opposing outfielders had no problem gobbling up. Advanced stats suggest that the 33-year-old is due for somewhat of a rebound with an xBA of .231 and .447 xSLG, but those figures are nowhere near his .304/.383/.557 season with 36 long balls in 2019. Martinez himself blames the lack of in-game video to analyze his swing between PAs, but fantasy managers don't know if that's a real thing or if batters will have that tool back in 2021. Martinez is also utility-only in most formats, costing gamers valuable roster flexibility. At an ADP of 98.44, it might be prudent to let somebody else roll the dice on a rebound.
