RADIO
Corbin Burnes 2024 Player Outlook: Ace Looking To Bounce Back At New Home After Down Year
11 months agoIf you draft Corbin Burnes and expect the 2021 version, you'll be disappointed. If you expect something similar to last year, you should be fine. In 32 starts (193.2 IP), Burnes had a 10-8 W-L record, 3.39 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 200 Ks. He's made 65 starts over the last two years so he has been durable. However, the numbers have declined. Burnes had a 3.80 xFIP and 4.02 SIERA, both career highs. Burnes' 8.4% BB% was up from his career 6.7% BB%, his 25.5% K% was the lowest since his rookie year (as a reliever) and his 44.1% GB% was a career-low. All concerning numbers but there are still reasons to draft Burnes. His durability is not to be discounted and although the ground balls aren't as plentiful, he still ranked in the 60th percentile for GB%. Burnes continues to limit hard contact, with his 86.4 MPH average exit velocity (92nd percentile), 32.4% HardHit% (89th percentile) and 5.3% Barrel% (86th percentile). A change of scenery might help unlock the best version of Burnes. Orioles starters had the 11th-best ERA last year (4.14) without having a true ace, so they managed to get the best out of what they had. Now they have their true ace and a Burnes bounceback is certainly worth speculating on in drafts, providing you don't overpay.
