January 21, 2019

In his third full season in the majors, Adam Duvall had a forgettable 2018. He posted career-worst numbers across the board with 15 HR, 48 R, 61 RBI, and a paltry .195 AVG. The right-hander had tremendous success in his previous two years as a Cincinnati Red averaging 32 HR, 82 R, 101 RBI, and a .245 AVG, so it was shocking to see his numbers this low. Although he had the best walk rate of his career (8.7%), his 27.4% K% and 13.1 % SwStr% was his worst marks to date. He hit the same amount of fly balls as his previous years, and his 36.6% Hard% was a percentage higher than his career average, so it was a little odd to see his .237 BABIP be so far off of his previous two season's rates (.290 and .275). Chalk some of it up to being utilized primarily as a pinch-hitter over the last two months of the year. After the Reds traded him to the Atlanta Braves at the trade deadline, Duvall failed to hit a home run with the Braves, and he batted a destitute .132 with a 29.8% K% and .194 BABIP. With the Braves re-signing Nick Markakis, Duvall will have the same role going forward with mainly getting starts against left-handers. His high strikeout rate will limit his average, but his BABIP should regress positively, so something in the .220-.230 range is conceivable. His limited at-bats will only provide around the same number of counting stats as he accumulated last year. Unless an injury strikes to one of the Braves outfielders, Duvall won't offer much value even at his 537 ADP.--Riley Mrack - RotoBaller