Pitchers Advanced Metrics Leaders - Trade Candidate Studs and Duds (Week 18)

July 22, 2024

Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose trade value could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 18.

Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for Week 18 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season! Today we'll be taking a look at Garrett Crochet, Jack Flaherty, Cal Quantrill, and Tyler Anderson. Each week, I will usually select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.

With the trade deadline fast approaching, I will instead analyze a few interesting pitchers who could find themselves in new locations come August. Team context and home ballpark play a part in fantasy value, and fantasy managers will likely face tough roster decisions as their trade deadlines approach.

With just a few weeks left to make trades, now is the most important time to identify buy-low and sell-high arms for your rotations. There are plenty of fantasy-relevant starting pitchers who could be on the move, and fantasy managers need to be aware of the potential fantasy implications. Let's dig in while there is still time!

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Trade Candidate Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 21, 2024.

Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox

6-6, 3.02 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 35.2% Strikeout Rate

Garrett Crochet's move to the starting rotation has been a huge success for the White Sox and fantasy managers. The 24-year-old has gone 6-6 with a 3.02 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 35.2% strikeout rate in 20 starts and 107 1/3 innings pitched. With the White Sox expected to be heavy sellers, the first-time All-Star is one of the top trade rumor names on the market. How has he been so successful, and how could his fantasy value change if he were traded?

Crochet's high level of success on a poor team is extremely encouraging. His Statcast profile is covered in red, and he is above league-average for all Statcast pitching categories. Everything starts with his pitch arsenal. Crochet brings a 97-MPH fastball as his primary pitch that has yielded a strong 14.4% swinging-strike rate. His new cutter is an even better swing-and-miss pitch with a 19.0% swinging-strike rate. Finally, he brings a sweeper as an off-speed pitch with a 17.3% swinging-strike rate.

Crochet has seen his strikeout skills play up while also significantly wrangling in his walks. Out of the bullpen, he posted an 11.7% walk rate in 2021 and a 20.3% walk rate in 2023, but has slahed that to a 5.4% walk rate this season. This mark has been one of the top walk rates in baseball.

Generally, any other team would be an improvement for Crochet, as he has received poor run support. Digging in a bit more, things could get tricky due to his inning count depending on where he went. Crochet is already at a career-high IP and had never been stretched out as a starter in the minors. Certain teams handle their young pitchers differently, which could result in some frustrating short outings for him.

However, a trade would be an overall fantasy boost for Crochet, as a potential innings limit would still be an issue if he stays with the White Sox. As I mentioned earlier in the season, fantasy managers may consider trying to sell high on him to capitalize on his value before he does run into an innings limit. They would have to get an excellent return, particularly if he were traded, as he should continue to be a higher-end fantasy contributor even with an innings cap.

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

7-5, 3.13 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 32.4% Strikeout Rate

Jack Flaherty ended up being traded last season and is on the hot stove again this season, although his situation is much different. The 28-year-old has been the best version of himself in many ways, going 7-5 with a 3.13 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 32.4% strikeout rate in 17 starts and 100 2/3 IP. What could a departure from the Tigers mean for his fantasy value?

Many things have changed for Flaherty to help produce his success. The first is his increased control. Flaherty owns a career 8.5% walk rate, which has been a detriment throughout his career. He has posted a career-low 4.3% walk rate this season. He has actually thrown the ball in the strike zone less than last season but has induced a career-high 34.2% chase rate. This has also helped him produce a career-high 32.4% strikeout rate.

One thing that has remained the same is his ability to limit hard contact. Flaherty's average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 68th and 74th percentiles of baseball, despite pitching his home games in one of the more hitter-friendly parks. His batted-ball profile has worked in his favor, as his .283 BABIP is much lower than his past couple of seasons and is in line with his career average.

“The job every single day is to try and win, regardless of whatever is going on. No matter what time of the season it is. The job is to win."
—Jack Flaherty https://t.co/8jaSUcwN35

— Chris McCosky (@cmccosky) July 20, 2024

Unlike Crochet, there are no workload concerns for Flaherty. If traded, his most likely landing spot would be a team in the thick of a playoff race looking for workhorse support from an established arm. This would be a clear benefit for Flaherty and fantasy managers, assuming he can replicate his first-half success. There is no evidence to point to the contrary, so a trade would be a great thing for his fantasy value.

Trade Candidate Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 21, 2024.

Cal Quantrill, Colorado Rockies

6-7, 4.15 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 18.0% Strikeout Rate

Despite pitching his home games in dreaded Coors Field, Cal Quantrill has put together a decent season with a 6-7 record, a 4.15 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an 18.0% strikeout rate in 20 starts and 108 1/3 IP. His performance combined with the Rockies' poor performance has resulted in his name coming up as a potential trade candidate. How much could fantasy managers benefit from Quantrill if he were to move parks?

Surprisingly, it does not seem as though he would get much of a benefit. Quantrill's home-road splits are pretty close, which is a testament to him pitching well in a tough park but is also surprising that his skills have not produced better results outside of Coors Field.

Further investigation inspires even less confidence. Quantrill is a pitch-to-contact pitcher with an 80.0% contact rate. He has done an above-average job keeping the ball on the ground with a 46.6% rate and has only allowed league-average hard contact.

This has seemed to do the trick in avoiding blow-up home starts but has gotten the same results on the road. Additionally, the Rockies have one of baseball's better defenses, which could explain how Quantrill has outperformed his 4.48 xERA and 4.60 SIERA.

Quantrill would receive more run support if he were to be traded, but it is possible he would find a less capable defense behind him. The thought that a move out of Coors Field would be an instant benefit does not play out when digging into the numbers, eliminating the most exciting fantasy component of a real-life trade. Unfortunately, it seems as though Quantrill's fantasy value could be capped even if he were traded.

Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels

8-8, 2.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 16.8% Strikeout Rate

Tyler Anderson had an All-Star-worthy first half, compiling a strong 2.97 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and a 16.8% strikeout rate in 19 starts and 118 IP. With the Angels once again in the midst of a disappointing season, Anderson's name has come up as a potential trade candidate. Can he repeat his first-half success, and would a trade make that more likely?

Anderson's underlying metrics mostly do not align with his peripherals. He does not have overpowering stuff, so his low strikeout rate is not a concern. However, he has put a lot of runners on for free with a 9.8% walk rate. The good news is that Anderson has done a great job limiting hard contact, so his free passes haven't come back to bite him.

His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 86th and 84th percentiles of baseball, respectively. He is a flyball pitcher, with a 17.9-degree launch angle and a 44.6% flyball rate. His .228 BABIP means he has generated a lot of weak fly balls, which turn into easy outs. The confounding thing is that his batted-ball profile this season is almost identical to last season, yet the results have been very different.

Anderson had a 5.43 ERA with a .301 BABIP in 2023 and owns a career .283 BABIP. The highly discrepant results are puzzling, but the fact that Anderson's numbers last season were more in line with his career averages makes me think that his current production is not sustainable.

Anderson's success this season doesn't make sense to me given his underlying profile and the results he has gotten previously. I consider him to be a sell-high candidate for fantasy, and I think a trade away from the Angels would boost his perceived fantasy value. As such, I would be inclined to hope he gets traded and then attempt to shop him once he is on a better team.

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