Diving Into Pitch Counts For a Shortened Season

June 8, 2020

Regardless of when the MLB season starts, fewer games will be played. With that in mind, Michael Simione looks at pitch counts and efficiency to judge whether some pitchers should have their value increased.

Pitchers who produce a ton of innings are a rare commodity in today’s game, with those who consistently put up 200 or more innings becoming increasingly valuable. However, with a potential shortened 2020 season and no innings limits, will this playing field be leveled?

At first thought, one might think that pitchers with assumed limits like Julio Urias, Chris Paddack, Lance McCullers Jr., and Jesus Luzardo should be moved up your rankings. That may not always be the case, however, as pitch count limits will still be a factor. Someone like Urias may see a maximum of five innings per start, whereas a pitcher like Lance Lynn will be pitching into the seventh and beyond. 

Pitchers who are more efficient in their pitches per inning and those allowed to go deeper in games have more chances to accumulate counting stats, translating to more fantasy value. Shane Bieber and James Paxton may have had similar K-rates in the second-half of 2019 but Bieber gave you 118 K in 102 innings, while Paxton had only 91 K in 74.1 IP. With that in mind, let's dive into the pitchers most likely to go deeper and whether they should move on your draft board.

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Pitch Count Leaderboards

First, let's look at the top-12 pitchers in 2019 that averaged the most pitches per game:

Notably, all of the above - save Scherzer and Wheeler - pitched at least 200 innings in 2019. The most efficient of this bunch were Verlander and Bieber, respectively averaging 15.5 and 15.6 pitches-per-innings. In terms of efficiency, here are the rest of the leaders in the category:

Out of this bunch, only Kershaw, Verlander, and Bieber averaged 95 or more pitches per start. This begs the question, who becomes more valuable in a shortened season based on efficiency per inning and pitch count per start? With that in mind, let's look at some of the pitchers above and decide whether they should rise in your rankings, or stay the same. 

Top 100 Players in NFBC ADP

Shane Bieber, 26.7 ADP

Shane Bieber was the breakout of all breakouts last year, easily surpassing everyone’s expectations. As you can see from the tables above he was also extremely efficient and consequentially,  the Cleveland Indians let him go deep into games. The biggest issue to worry about is whether Bieber’s elite control (with a career 4.7 BB% in 328 IP) takes a step back. His numbers could also suffer if a 1.3 HR/9 that was tied for 40th among 61 qualified pitchers, becomes more of an issue. With that said, Bieber still has elite talent and should see another great campaign in 2020.

Verdict: Raise

Justin Verlander, 20.4 ADP

Justin Verlander had an amazing 2019 season, edging out his teammates Gerrit Cole for the AL CY Young award. Just like Beiber, Verlander was extremely efficient and the Houston Astros let him pitch deep into games. Now 37-years-old, some may worry he could start to fall off an age-induced cliff but Verlander has yet to show any signs of slowing down. 

Verdict: Raise

Trevor Bauer, 82 ADP

After an amazing 2018 campaign, Bauer turned in an extremely disappointing year for both his MLB and fantasy owners and was traded to the Cincinnati Reds mid-season. As he tinkers a lot with his pitches, Bauer can be hard to figure out, both for batters and fantasy owners trying to predict his production. While he wasn’t remarkably efficient, he did pitch deep into games and finished with a career-high 213 IP, his most since having 190 IP in 2016.

Bauer is most dependant on his four-seamer but the pitch took a big step back in 2019, with a .430 wOBAcon against it, after the pitch garnered a .316 wOBACon in 2018. And his slider performance also slid back, with a .410 wOBAcon that was 150-points higher than the year before, and an 18.3% SwStr% that was a three-point drop. 

He's been a relative workhouse these past few years but a drop in pitch performance and a move to a more hitter-friendly park is enough reason to leave him where he is.

Verdict: Keep

Pitchers Going After 100 ADP

Mike Soroka, 108 ADP

Mike Soroka had a glorious rookie campaign and finished as the most efficient pitcher in baseball. His 14.6 pitches per inning are extremely low but not surprising as he was masterful on the mound in 2019. While his K% is rather low and he seems like a Kyle Hendricks he is still young and could potentially grow into more of a strikeout pitcher. With that potential and no reason for the Braves to hold him back, you should be raising Soroka in your rankings.

Verdict: Raise

Lance Lynn, 118.9 ADP

Lynn became the master of fastballs in 2019, increasing his four-seam usage from 46% in the first half to 59% in the second half, while his average velocity rose from 94.2 mph to 94.9 mph. With great command and by hitting the top of the zone frequently, Lynn was able to continually go deep into games in 2019. It is hard to find a hole in Lynn’s game and since he should keep racking up the innings, raising him in your rankings might be a good idea.

Verdict: Raise

Eduardo Rodriguez, 135.6 ADP

Eduardo Rodriguez enjoyed himself a little breakout campaign in 2019, finishing with 19 wins in 203.1 innings while inducing 67.2% weak-contact. The Red Sox really let him off the leash as Rodriguez had one of the highest pitch counts in baseball. But with previous health issues holding him to just 267 IP in 2017 and 2018 combined, the advantage might not be there in 2020.

Verdict: Keep

Hyun-Jin Ryu, 147.5 ADP

Ryu was the second most efficient pitcher in baseball last year which isn’t surprising since he led the league with a 2.32 ERA. Much like Soroka, Ryu pitches for weak contact and whenever he is on the mound he seems to always be a quality pitcher. The downside is Ryu has only had two healthy years in his career, which could really hurt owners in a shortened season. He also has a brick wall of a defender in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at third base, with the rest of the infield also needing improvement. Based on health and a shaky defense, Ryu should be kept where he is. 

Verdict: Keep

Mike Minor, 174.9 ADP

A teammate of Lynn, Minor also threw a ton of fastballs, with his 1,497 four-seamers the 11th-most thrown in 2019. Paired with an effective changeup, Minor rode the deadly combo to success. Batters managed only a .178 AVG against the changeup with a 24.8% K-rate.

Minor seemed to really take advantage of volume, needing 208.1 IP to rack up 200 K. While he did go deep into games, a shortened season might not be long enough for him to provide an advantage. There is also the question of how good his fastball and changeup really are, given that 2019 was his most successful year to date with the pitches. This leads to a verdict of keeping him where he is in your rankings. 

Verdict: Keep

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