X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Diving Into Pitch Counts For a Shortened Season

Regardless of when the MLB season starts, fewer games will be played. With that in mind, Michael Simione looks at pitch counts and efficiency to judge whether some pitchers should have their value increased.

Pitchers who produce a ton of innings are a rare commodity in today’s game, with those who consistently put up 200 or more innings becoming increasingly valuable. However, with a potential shortened 2020 season and no innings limits, will this playing field be leveled?

At first thought, one might think that pitchers with assumed limits like Julio Urias, Chris Paddack, Lance McCullers Jr., and Jesus Luzardo should be moved up your rankings. That may not always be the case, however, as pitch count limits will still be a factor. Someone like Urias may see a maximum of five innings per start, whereas a pitcher like Lance Lynn will be pitching into the seventh and beyond. 

Pitchers who are more efficient in their pitches per inning and those allowed to go deeper in games have more chances to accumulate counting stats, translating to more fantasy value. Shane Bieber and James Paxton may have had similar K-rates in the second-half of 2019 but Bieber gave you 118 K in 102 innings, while Paxton had only 91 K in 74.1 IP. With that in mind, let's dive into the pitchers most likely to go deeper and whether they should move on your draft board.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Pitch Count Leaderboards

First, let's look at the top-12 pitchers in 2019 that averaged the most pitches per game:

Player Pitches/Game
Trevor Bauer 108.4
Lance Lynn 107.7
Mike Minor 104.9
Jacob deGrom 103.0
Eduardo Rodriguez 102.8
Max Scherzer 102.6
Stephen Strasburg 102.5
Zack Wheeler 101.9
Gerrit Cole 101.9
Justin Verlander 101.4
Shane Bieber 101.0
Patrick Corbin 100.0

Notably, all of the above - save Scherzer and Wheeler - pitched at least 200 innings in 2019. The most efficient of this bunch were Verlander and Bieber, respectively averaging 15.5 and 15.6 pitches-per-innings. In terms of efficiency, here are the rest of the leaders in the category:

Player Pitches/Inning
Mike Soroka 14.6
Hyun-Jin Ryu 14.8
Zack Greinke 14.9
Clayton Kershaw 15.0
German Marquez 15.0
Mike Leake 15.1
Brett Anderson 15.2
Kyle Hendricks 15.3
Masahiro Tanaka 15.5
Justin Verlander 15.5
Shane Bieber 15.6

Out of this bunch, only Kershaw, Verlander, and Bieber averaged 95 or more pitches per start. This begs the question, who becomes more valuable in a shortened season based on efficiency per inning and pitch count per start? With that in mind, let's look at some of the pitchers above and decide whether they should rise in your rankings, or stay the same. 

 

Top 100 Players in NFBC ADP

Shane Bieber, 26.7 ADP

Shane Bieber was the breakout of all breakouts last year, easily surpassing everyone’s expectations. As you can see from the tables above he was also extremely efficient and consequentially,  the Cleveland Indians let him go deep into games. The biggest issue to worry about is whether Bieber’s elite control (with a career 4.7 BB% in 328 IP) takes a step back. His numbers could also suffer if a 1.3 HR/9 that was tied for 40th among 61 qualified pitchers, becomes more of an issue. With that said, Bieber still has elite talent and should see another great campaign in 2020.

Verdict: Raise

Justin Verlander, 20.4 ADP

Justin Verlander had an amazing 2019 season, edging out his teammates Gerrit Cole for the AL CY Young award. Just like Beiber, Verlander was extremely efficient and the Houston Astros let him pitch deep into games. Now 37-years-old, some may worry he could start to fall off an age-induced cliff but Verlander has yet to show any signs of slowing down. 

Verdict: Raise

Trevor Bauer, 82 ADP

After an amazing 2018 campaign, Bauer turned in an extremely disappointing year for both his MLB and fantasy owners and was traded to the Cincinnati Reds mid-season. As he tinkers a lot with his pitches, Bauer can be hard to figure out, both for batters and fantasy owners trying to predict his production. While he wasn’t remarkably efficient, he did pitch deep into games and finished with a career-high 213 IP, his most since having 190 IP in 2016.

Bauer is most dependant on his four-seamer but the pitch took a big step back in 2019, with a .430 wOBAcon against it, after the pitch garnered a .316 wOBACon in 2018. And his slider performance also slid back, with a .410 wOBAcon that was 150-points higher than the year before, and an 18.3% SwStr% that was a three-point drop. 

He's been a relative workhouse these past few years but a drop in pitch performance and a move to a more hitter-friendly park is enough reason to leave him where he is.

Verdict: Keep

 

Pitchers Going After 100 ADP

Mike Soroka, 108 ADP

Mike Soroka had a glorious rookie campaign and finished as the most efficient pitcher in baseball. His 14.6 pitches per inning are extremely low but not surprising as he was masterful on the mound in 2019. While his K% is rather low and he seems like a Kyle Hendricks he is still young and could potentially grow into more of a strikeout pitcher. With that potential and no reason for the Braves to hold him back, you should be raising Soroka in your rankings.

Verdict: Raise

Lance Lynn, 118.9 ADP

Lynn became the master of fastballs in 2019, increasing his four-seam usage from 46% in the first half to 59% in the second half, while his average velocity rose from 94.2 mph to 94.9 mph. With great command and by hitting the top of the zone frequently, Lynn was able to continually go deep into games in 2019. It is hard to find a hole in Lynn’s game and since he should keep racking up the innings, raising him in your rankings might be a good idea.

Verdict: Raise

Eduardo Rodriguez, 135.6 ADP

Eduardo Rodriguez enjoyed himself a little breakout campaign in 2019, finishing with 19 wins in 203.1 innings while inducing 67.2% weak-contact. The Red Sox really let him off the leash as Rodriguez had one of the highest pitch counts in baseball. But with previous health issues holding him to just 267 IP in 2017 and 2018 combined, the advantage might not be there in 2020.

Verdict: Keep

Hyun-Jin Ryu, 147.5 ADP

Ryu was the second most efficient pitcher in baseball last year which isn’t surprising since he led the league with a 2.32 ERA. Much like Soroka, Ryu pitches for weak contact and whenever he is on the mound he seems to always be a quality pitcher. The downside is Ryu has only had two healthy years in his career, which could really hurt owners in a shortened season. He also has a brick wall of a defender in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at third base, with the rest of the infield also needing improvement. Based on health and a shaky defense, Ryu should be kept where he is. 

Verdict: Keep

Mike Minor, 174.9 ADP

A teammate of Lynn, Minor also threw a ton of fastballs, with his 1,497 four-seamers the 11th-most thrown in 2019. Paired with an effective changeup, Minor rode the deadly combo to success. Batters managed only a .178 AVG against the changeup with a 24.8% K-rate.

Minor seemed to really take advantage of volume, needing 208.1 IP to rack up 200 K. While he did go deep into games, a shortened season might not be long enough for him to provide an advantage. There is also the question of how good his fastball and changeup really are, given that 2019 was his most successful year to date with the pitches. This leads to a verdict of keeping him where he is in your rankings. 

Verdict: Keep

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Kyren Williams

Rams Not Willing to Pay Kyren Williams Top-Market Money?
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Christian Kirk

the No. 2 WR in Houston?
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Jerome Ford

the Likely Starter for Cleveland to Begin 2025
Chig Okonkwo

"Poised" for Best Season of Career
Xavier Watts

Falcons High on Xavier Watts
Xavier Restrepo

Training With Star Wideouts
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Tristan Wirfs

Undergoes Knee Surgery, Likely to Miss Start of Season
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic to Delay Extension Talks Until 2026
Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Laken Tomlinson

Confident in Texans Offensive Line
J.K. Dobbins

the Starter in Denver?
JT Woods

Seahawks Release JT Woods
Darren Waller

Trade to Miami Becomes Official
Asante Samuel Jr.

Dolphins Interested in Asante Samuel Jr.
Nyheim Hines

Seeking Return to NFL
Dak Prescott

Expects to be Full-Go for Training Camp
Ajay Mitchell

Posts 16 Points in Summer League Win on Monday
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Waived by Bucks
Brice Sensabaugh

Logs 37 points in Summer League Win on Monday
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
GG Jackson II

Collects 27 Points in Summer League Loss
Ace Bailey

Scores 18 Points in Summer League Victory
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF