RADIO
Hey there, RotoBallers! Thanks for stopping by my PGA DFS strategy series that focuses on multi-entry GPP strategy for each specific golf tournament on the PGA Tour. If you haven't read any of my pieces yet, my name is Tommy Bell. I go by @BellRoto in the Twitter world, and I've been writing for RotoBaller since my college days back in 2013!
Our fantastic RotoBaller PGA team has pretty much every facet of golf DFS and betting covered, but this might one extra piece I can add to the mix to help put into words what I believe is the most profitable way to approach PGA DFS. That approach is simply max entering the multi-entry GPP tournaments. For context, I will be using DraftKings as my site of reference, and I will refer mainly to the $3 entry, 20-entry max tournament that they host each tournament. That being said, a lot of what I'll cover can be translated to use in lower or higher buy-in tournaments. It can also (with some tweaks) be used in a 50-entry or 150-entry max approach.
I understand everyone uses different lineup-building tools, and that's great! I'll be using our awesome lineup builder/optimizer tool here as reference. Each week I'll provide some reflection on last week's tournament, some generic thoughts on the upcoming approach to building multiple lineups, and lastly a quick peak at which players will make up my core for building GPP lineups this week. Let's get to it!
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Reflection: Last Week's PGA Championship
The first major of the year was a good one for me! Jon Rahm recovered a bit on Sunday to boost those lineups a bit, but the main money came from my Collin Morikawa lineups that used Joel Dahmen to balance out the salaries. I also had a good chunk of 6-of-6s in what felt like forever. I didn't come out making a ton of money, but I was able to turn my $60 in entry fees into about $80. It's a good step in the right direction, and my live bet on Morikawa at +450 at the turn on Sunday made it feel like a much better week than my DraftKings account displayed.
Let's hope my solid foresight on Dahmen, Morikawa, Fleetwood, Berger, Bryson and Rose is a sign of good things to come. The core foundation was there, we just needed the right combo to really take the next step.
Approach: Wyndham Championship
There's a lot of volatility in this tournament, much like the Rocket Mortgage Classic or the 3M Open. The field is weak, history at Sedgefield Country Club says the winner will get really hot with the putter, and there aren't a whole lot of trust-worthy names beyond $9,000. For that reason, I'll be dropping back down to the $1 GPP this week to avoid giving back more than what I won last week. Might I regret scaling back if I find that right combo? Sure. But history shows that these type of tournaments, at least for me, are much harder to piece together correctly.
That being said, the players I will add to my pool will have the upside to go LOW. I want guys who can be fairway finders off the tee, and then stick their irons close all week long. I'm giving a slight boost to the guys who have putted better on Bermuda in the past. There's only a few names up top that I feel confident in, so I'll be going abnormally heavy on those while cycling in high-upside names from the bargain bin. Let's get into some names!
Staples Over $8.5K: Wyndham Championship
Harris English: $9,300 - About 65%
The price just doesn't match up for English's recent form, his skill set on this track, and the weakness of the rest of this field. English should be able to get his birdies and avoid any hardships at Sedgefield. He's one of my favorite outright bets, and a Top 10 seems pretty safe when considering his recent finishes.
Webb Simpson: $11,200 - About 55%
It's pretty well-known that Webb thrives at shorter, fairway finder tracks. He should be able to dial his drives back, hit some short irons, and get hot with the mid-range birdie opportunities just like he did in his victory at the RBC Heritage. Simpson is expensive, but there's no one in the field that has a higher floor/ceiling combination.
Paul Casey: $10,300 - About 45%
Casey looked great from tee-to-green last week, and this is the kind of event he COULD win. Let's hope the putter doesn't implode, because he can set up as many birdie opportunities as anyone in this field.
Staples Under $8.5K: Wyndham Championship
Russell Henley: $7,700 - About 45%
You'd be hard-pressed trying to find a hotter iron player than Henley right now. He's been uber consistent, and I'm not about to back off now. His putting showed up at RBC Heritage, so let's hope similar greens at Sedgefield does the same for the Georgia kid.
Luke List: $7,200 - About 45%
List has made major strides in his game as of late, and a terrible putting performance last week ruined what could've been an impressive major showing for the ball striker. If he can just be an average putter and keep his tee-to-green game sharp, we could be looking at a Top 5 finish.
Dylan Frittelli: $7,900 - About 40%
Frittelli's recent form is fantastic, and he should be able to have another very strong week tee-to-green. His putting seems to be much better on Bermuda, so here's hoping that part of his game comes around at the right time: In a weak field event like the Wyndham.
Wesley Bryan: $6,600 - About 40%
Nothing tricky here. Bryan struggles off the tee and with his around-the-green game. Two things that should be much less influential on a fairway-finder track with massive greens. Let's hope the irons/wedges get hot and Wes can putt like he did at the Travelers and Rocket Mortgage, which would make this a bargain price tag.
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