RADIO
Scottie Scheffler is in complete control of his golf ball, leading the field by two strokes while losing strokes putting over the course of the tournament. He seemingly does not need to gain strokes putting to be in contention. He is such a savage ball striker. However, with the majority of our weeklong lineups sitting at the bottom of the water surrounding the 17th green, we need to figure out how we want to approach the round 4 showdown slate.
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
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Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Round 3 Ownership Analysis
Round 3 DraftKings Points
Round 3 Highest Ownership:
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4:
These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for round 4. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website
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$10,000+
Viktor Hovland, Max Homa, and Collin Morikawa are all going to be ridiculously low-owned as they all sit T14 or worse, while Scottie Scheffler is a few hundred bucks more expensive and will be pushing 50% ownership as he leads the tournament. We will lean a little more on Hovland and Homa, with Morikawa probably coming in at single-digit ownership after his last two clunkers.
This course can bite you at any given minute and if Scottie gets off to a slow start, and has a water ball or two, half the contest will have a dud in their lineup. We are going to sprinkle in all three of these guys into our lineups as one of them will most likely be close to having the round of the day, hopefully.
$9,000+
Patrick Cantlay is going to be where the majority of my exposure lands in the $9k range. He is one of the best birdie makers in the field and his short game has been rather flat over the last three rounds. He leads the field off the tee, which sets up success at this venue. If the putter gets hot tomorrow, Cantlay will be surging up that leaderboard.
Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris, and Tony Finau all can have the round of the day with Finau sitting in the best starting position of T26. They will be low-owned, high-upside plays.
$8,000+
Cameron Young was on pace to break the course record today but fizzled out over his final 7 holes. Give us that ball striking again tomorrow. Sam Burns and Keith Mitchell are two high-upside golfers sitting in T47 which will see them coming in with minimal ownership. They could end up in the top 10 if they have a top-end performance tomorrow.
$7,000+
We are going to be sprinkling in a lot of these $7k golfers who have names like Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim, and Shane Lowry ... in the $7K range. Will Gordon, Gary Woodland, Ryan Fox, and Brian Harman don't have the same consistent upside as the aforementioned three, but anything is possible on this course. We like all of these guys because of their ownership as a result of their position on the leaderboard.
$6,000+
Byeong Hun An is arguably the most explosive of the $6k targets in our player pool. The other $6K guys in the screenshot will all be sprinkled into the lineups that we have divided into the three $10k golfers who will be total about 75% of our lineups. Sam Ryder and Brendon Todd will probably be in a few more lineups than the rest of the gang. Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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