RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! While the Rocket Mortgage Classic didn't end the way we'd hoped for the Monkey Knife Fight picks as a whole, we did a solid job of nailing a majority of the prop leans. Rory Sabbatini decided to come out as flat as could be, and Hideki Matsuyama definitely outplayed my expectations on Saturday and Sunday after barely making the cut on Friday afternoon. You'll find that, while the rewards are juicy on Monkey Knife Fight, one wayward drive or a hot streak from a faded golfer can change things in a hurry. Let's see if we can put it all together this week.
Using my PGA DFS and betting research for both DraftKings and handicapping, I'll look into some of the Monkey Knife Fight prop bets for the Workday Charity Open to see which posted numbers make sense to take a stand on. You can use this advice to place your own wagers on MKF. As always, send any questions, comments, or banter my way on Twitter. You can find me @BellRoto.
Now let's get to some PGA Monkey Knife Fight prop bet picks for the Workday Charity Open at Muirfield Village Golf Club!
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Pick 1: More or Less (4x Prize)
Birdies or Better: Jon Rahm MORE than 18.5
Rahm's putter has been letting him down since the PGA's break due to Covid, but that can't last forever. Taking last week off should do him wonders, and he's a good enough scorer where he'll blow past this number as long as he makes the cut and plays decent over the weekend. The bogeys will always be there for Rahm, but this scoring prop is too low.
Birdies or Better: Patrick Reed MORE than 17.5
Reed has been the definition of inconsistency of late, but his history at this golf course should not be overlooked. He's a good long iron player who can start pouring in putts in a hurry. This seems like a good spot for Reed to quietly get back on track and contend for the lead, at least for a day or two. I like the over on this number.
Birdies or Better: Hideki Matsuyama MORE than 17.5
The Saturday showing from Matsuyama reminded us why this guy can be so deadly on any given track. Mix in the fact that Hideki's long irons are some of the best in the business, and I'm confident in taking the over on this number. All we're asking for is a made cut here, and we can assume he'll cruise by 17.5 birdies or better. The slow greens should play to his benefit too.
Pick 2: Rapidfire (20x Prize)
More Birdies or Better: Justin Thomas (+0.5) over Justin Rose
I do like Justin Rose this week. I'll most likely have Rose over Justin Thomas on DraftKings due to price difference and the ability to build balanced lineups. That being said, I'm not concerned at all about JT's missed cut in Connecticut two weeks ago. He's one of the best players in the world, and a lot of that stems from long irons and Par 5 scoring. I'm making the logical pick here.
More Birdies or Better: Jon Rahm (+0.5) over Patrick Cantlay
See analysis above... Patrick Cantlay is a good player, but Jon Rahm is one of the best in the world. He should be the one favored in this matchup.
More Birdies or Better: Hideki Matsuyama (+0.5) over Patrick Reed
I talked briefly about both players above, and I simply have more confidence in Matsuyama's game as of right now. He looked fantastic over the weekend, and I'll take his scoring upside over Reed's at the moment. The win if they tie is a nice bonus too!
More Birdies or Better: Brooks Koepka over Jason Day (+0.5)
This is not as much an endorsement of Brooks Koepka as it is another week of fading Jason Day. It worked great last week, but Reed couldn't muster up one more birdie before he also missed the cut. While this is Day's home course, he has not played it all that well in the past. Day is trying to keep his game from falling apart completely at the moment, and Koepka has shown he still has plenty of competitive juices in the tank. This should be an easy one even if both make the cut.
