RADIO
Jon Rahm is just making those that fade him, depressed. Maybe Max Homa can restore some sanity to the golf betting world with a come-from-behind win tomorrow.
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model that is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
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Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Round 3 Ownership Analysis
Round 3 DraftKings Points
Round 3 Highest Ownership:
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4:
There is a good chance Jon Rahm lands up winning this event by a shot or two once he taps in his final putt on 18, which means that somebody has got within 1 or 2 strokes of him. Who is that going to be? Also, as we discussed above, if we get somebody with elite upside, cough-Rory-cough, who can finally land up putting like the world No.2 he is, we will have immense leverage on the field with a golfer who may not be in the mix to win the event, but who can rattle of 6 or 7 birdies if his round unfolds how we have hoped the last three rounds would have.
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$10,000+
Jon Rahm is a game theory fade. I believe that he may land up winning the event, but with a 3 shot lead, there is a good chance he lands up coasting and playing conservatively down the stretch. We want guys who will be low owned and hunting for birdies. If Rahm lands up having to make a bunch of birdies he most likely messed up early, or someone got off to a hot start. Roughly 40%+ of the field will have Rahm in their lineups tomorrow, and if we think about how much lucky breaks he has had through the last few rounds, if the law of averages bites him in the butt like it did Morikawa at the TOC, we are in business.
Max Homa is in second place and has the best chance of hunting down the big Spaniard. Pairing him with other $10K golfers like Rory or Scheffler who can soar up the leaderboard if they play to their capabilities, will be a way to get different.
Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler have one final chance to redeem us for constantly pivoting to them from Rahm this week. They have the same talent as Jon Rahm and will be fractionally owned compared to the spicy Spaniard.
$9,000+
Collin Morikawa is going to be somebody who can hit a bunch of irons close and soar up that leaderboard, albeit at high ownership.
Will Zalatoris is only a shot back of Collin and will come in at about 10% less ownership, giving you enough leverage and an $800 savings on a top-5 candidate in the $9k range. Will the real Tony Finau please stand up?? (Sheesh dude, give us something). Justin Thomas is another explosive player sitting outside the top-20 who could land up with at T5 if things break our way tomorrow.
$8,000+
Viktor Hovland, Cameron Young and Tom Kim will be our three guys we lean on most in the $8k range, as they should both come in at a fraction of the ownership of Keith Mitchell, who has shown that he gets a little tight in the final round of a tournament.
$7,000+
Seamus Power was on pace to break the slate today until he recorded a triple bogey after rattling off a 3-birdie-streak. We are going back to the power well.
Thomas Detry burnt us today but is now far enough from the lead that he can play freely again. Nick Taylor has been playing exceptionally lately and is sitting all the way down in T55 so a 65 from him tomorrow could come with 1% ownership. Jhonnatan Vegas has one of the most explosive ball striking repertoires in the field, but had a poor outing in R3, with a bounce back paying off massively tomorrow.
J.J. Spaun would be an ownership pivot over Denny McCarthy, sitting a shot back of one of the better putters in the field. Corey Connors has one of the better round 4 scoring averages in the field and although he is in 67th place, he could somehow land up ball striking his way to a sneaky 67 at 0% ownership.
$6,000+
Trey Mullinax, Mackenzie Hughes, Sepp Straka, Ben Taylor and Tyler Duncan will all be in my $6k player pool.
Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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