RADIO
Davis Thompson was on 59 watch after heading out in 28 strokes, only to record a measly two-under 34 on the back nine to finish to finish with a -10 (62). Very impressive stuff. He recorded back-to-back eagles on the two par 5s on La Quinta, which is where the majority of the golfers we choose for R2 showdown will be playing tomorrow. If you can birdie either hole adjacent to the pair of par 5s, its one of the easiest streaks of 3 birdies on tour. La Quinta is also the easiest of the three courses.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range, who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitated towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
Ownership Analysis
Going into Round 2, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in R2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
Dollar per point scored by course
The question that I am asking myself: Is the ownership going to LaQuinta because it is an easy course or is it going to the group of players that started on La Quinta (easily the highest average salary)? My opinion is that the ownership followed the quality of golfer and not the difficulty of the course.
Top Points Scorers
A very healthy blend of all three courses is in this graphic.
Highest Owned Golfers
An unhealthy blend of La Quinta in this graphic. Granted, a lot of the best golfers went off on La Quinta, really skewing the data a little, which is why I included their R2 power ranking so you can see who all warranted that ownership. It kind of confirms that the ownership on La Quinta is due to the players and not the course. We still think that La Quinta is the easiest course and it has a pair of par 5s that offer a great opportunity to collect a 3-birdie-streak.
Lowest Owned Golfers Who Scored 40+ Points
Three La Quintens ...
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Round 2 Power Rankings
These golfers can all be considered for cash games or double-ups. The golfers who played LQ today will play NT tomorrow and that very yellow left column once again emphasizes the quality of golfers on that rotation. Let's find some gems in the La Quinta rough, shall we?
PLEASE NOTE: If you want the entire showdown cheat sheet, it's free to download here.
The Chalk Squad
These golfers should be the most owned tomorrow based on their round 1 performance.
$10,000: Nobody.
$9,000: Nobody.
$8,000: Nobody.
$7,000: Keith Mitchell.
$6,000: Nobody.
The Pivot People
These guys find themselves in the middle of the leaderboard. Their round did not go entirely according to plan, and we are banking on them to bounce back today.
$10,000: Nobody.
$9,000: Nobody.
$8,000: Sahith may have had his best round of the tournament today and for that reason, I am out.
$7,000: Justin Rose, Charley Hoffman
$6,000: Mark Hubbard, Stewart Cink, Danny Lee
The Leverage Lads
The lowest-owned golfers who should give us the most leverage in a DFS Showdown slate.
$10,000: Scottie Scheffler!
$9,000: Will Zalatoris (goes back to the course he absolutely tore apart last year). Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Tom Kim.
$8,000: Aaron Wise, Tom Hoge, Cameron Davis, Brian Harman
$7,000: Emiliano Grillo, Davis Riley, Brendon Todd, Chris Kirk
$6,000: Lucas Glover, Justin Lower
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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