PGA Round 3 Live Bets and DFS Showdown Picks for DraftKings: 2023 Sentry TOC

Byron's top PGA live bets, rankings and PGA DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings. The Round 3 Showdown slate on 2023 Tournament of Champions.

This article is going to take a look at showdown slates, round matchups, and potential outright/T20 adds after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article we are going to break down the previous round's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.

The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range, who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitated towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.

Ownership Analysis

These are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.

By taking a look at round 2 ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in R2 (DK points include finishing position).

• Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
• Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
• Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
• Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.

Round 2 Top Point Scorers

Somehow Scottie came in higher owned that Collin, with the public hoping for Scottie's putter to heat up as Collins cooled down? Luke List was the slate breaker at 2% along with Corey Conners who were the low priced, low owned ballers.

Round 2 Highest Owned

Yesterday's article had us dodge the three highest owned golfer, landing on Scottie, who was amazing today despite still dragging a neutral putter around Hawaii. Collin and Jordan were not on our radar, with Cantlay and Thomas being our high-priced pivots, that let us down. Do we go back to them again at even lower ownership, although they are not really playing all that well?

Ballers

We mentioned that we like to target golfers who played poorly, but that doesn't mean we need to entirely ignore those that played well. We can use a few of these guys in our lineups still, but we want to have the majority of our player pool coming from the prior round "Crawlers" who managed to drag their round to the 18th hole, hoping that the next day would be better.

Crawlers

This list is comprised of players who played poorly. There are definitely a few Crawlers I will be looking to target.

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Round 3 Power Rankings

My power rankings for round 2 are calculated as follows: Pre-event Ranking (50%) + Round 2 Scoring Average (37.5%) + Birdie or Better % (12.5%)

The Chalk Squad

These golfers should be the most owned tomorrow based off of their current performance and general skill level (Pwr Rnk). Tom Kim and Scottie Scheflfer are extremely tempting, as neither has been putting particularly well, while displaying a ball-striking clinic. Scottie's putter has been teasing us for the last few weeks.  We are going with one guy from Mega Chalk in such a small field, so Tom Kim may be locked into all my lineups. Love his price and we know what his putter can get up to when he is feeling it,

$10,000:

$9,000:

$8,000:  Tom Kim

$7,000:

$6,000:

The Pivot People

These guys find themselves in the middle of the leaderboard. Their round did not go according to plan and we are banking on them to bounce back today.

$10,000:

$9,000:

$8,000:  Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris

$7,000: Tom Hoge, Seamus Power, Sahith Theegala

$6,000: K.H Lee,

The Leverage Lads

The lowest owned golfers who should give us the most leverage in a DFS Showdown slate.

$10,000: Justin Thomas (Does his ownership get into the low teens?)

$9,000: Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay

$8,000: Cameron Young, Max Homa

$7,000: Sam Burns, Mackenzie Hughes

$6,000: Keegan Bradley, Russell Henley

Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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