RADIO
Hello and welcome to the U.S. Open edition of Horse For The Course! If you are a golf fan, this week is like Christmas! Golf only has four major championships per year and the U.S. Open generally presents golf's toughest test. After a couple years at new venues, the USGA heads back to a classic course this week at Shinnecock Hills. Of course, this week's field is loaded with golf's best players, but we will also see some names that we aren't familiar with. The U.S. Open is truly democratic, if your game is good enough you can play your way in through qualifiers. Unfortunately, we won't have much course history to work with this week, as the last time Shinnecock hosted a U.S. Open was 14 years ago. DFS sites are offering tons of options this week, including DraftKings "Millionaire Maker", which you can enter for a modest $20 entry fee. If you haven't played it in the past, I definitely recommend it. In honor of the U.S. Open, I will be expanding the number of selections this week. Let's get to it!
Horse For The Course will take a look at players that have traditionally flourished at the course that hosts this week’s PGA TOUR event. This is not a traditional picks column, but rather an attempt to pinpoint players that have outstanding results at a specific course. "The Horse" is a player with an elite course history and that has a great chance to repeat his success in this week's tournament. "The Ponies" are players with very good course history, that might be entering this week's tournament under the radar or have a DFS price that is a great value. Due to this week's tournament being played on a course that is not a regular Tour stop, we are forced to veer away from our normal course history strategy. This week's column will attempt to identify the best DFS plays available.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finklestein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
The Course: Shinnecock Hills - Par 70 - 7,445 Yards
After visiting a brand new venue last year, the USGA brings the U.S. Open back to a classic track this week. Shinnecock Hills is an iconic course located on Long Island. It last hosted the U.S. Open in 2004. That event was won by Retief Goosen and has become part of golf lore for the difficulty of the greens during the final round. The USGA was famously forced to water the seventh green between groups during the final round. Shinnecock is a links-style course that has removed several trees and enlarged some greens since the last time it played host to the U.S. Open. Players will face massive distances, thick rough, and very fast poa annua greens. Wind and the weather in general could definitely be a factor this week. Par is traditionally considered a good score in the U.S. Open and I expect that to be the case again this week.
The Horses
Dustin Johnson (DraftKings - $11,700 & FanDuel - $12,400 )
DJ dominated the field in Memphis at last week's FedEx St. Jude Classic and I'm happy for him. Selfishly, I wish Johnson would've quietly finished tied for ninth or something. I feel like DJ was going to be flying under the radar heading into this year's U.S. Open, but now he has everyone's attention going into Shinnecock Hills. Despite that fact, Johnson is still one of my horses this week. I'm of the opinion that golfer's have different gears. What I mean by that is that every golfer can't play their absolute best every week...sometimes we see a player's "A game" or "D game", but most of the time we are watching their "B or C game". I believe that Dustin Johnson has a different gear than just about every other golfer in the world. Basically, if DJ has his "A game" this week, I think he will win the U.S. Open. I'm obviously not in the minority on this opinion, Johnson is the highest priced DFS option on both DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as the odds on favorite at sportsbooks.
Johnson's stats are, of course, ridiculous. He ranks first in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, and Scoring Average. Obviously, those are very important categories and all will be crucial this week, but I'm even more impressed when we dig deeper into some of DJ's more obscure stats. There are a few things that will be of the utmost importance at Shinnecock Hills this week and Johnson passes the test. He ranks second in 3-Putt Avoidance and ninth in scrambling from the rough. Pretty impressive stuff from a guy that's mostly known for how long he hits it. We have seen evidence that Johnson can handle U.S. Open layouts, including a remarkable three-year stretch that saw him finish tied for fourth in 2014, tied for second in 2015, and finally taking home the title in 2016.
Due to this being a major, DFS pricing is a bit relaxed throughout the field. Though DJ's price tag is substantial, you aren't forced to make huge sacrifices to fit him in your lineups. If we start out DraftKings lineups with Johnson, we are left with $7,660/avg per player. The depth of the field offers tons of flexibility and options in that price range. I do believe Johnson's ownership will be inflated due to his win last week, but he will still be a viable GPP option.
Justin Rose (DK - $9,900 & FD - $12,200)
Our second horse this week is Justin Rose, the 2013 U.S. Open champion. Rose has had a fantastic 2018 season, picking up two wins on the European Tour in the fall and recently winning the PGA Tour's Fort Worth Invitational over Brooks Koepka in very impressive fashion. The Englishman hasn't missed a cut this year and appears to be peaking at the right time. Surprisingly, Rose has missed the cut in his last two U.S. Open starts, but I'm willing to overlook those disappointing outings. Rose is currently playing the type of golf that can't be ignored and he seems to be especially dialed in over the past month.
While he is not as dominant as our other horse Dustin Johnson, Rose's strength lies in his consistency and complete overall game. We won't find Rose ranking first in many stats categories, though he does rank first in Birdie Average, but he is solid across the board. He sits eighth in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 17th in SG: Off the Tee, 27th in SG: Approach, and 15th in SG: Around the Green. Perhaps the largest contributing factor in Rose's amazing play this year is his drastic improvement on the greens. We have seen an unbelievable jump in his putting statistics this season, in 2016 Rose ranked 134th in Strokes Gained: Putting, in 2017 he was 123rd, this year...10th in Strokes Gained: Putting. That is almost unimaginable difference for a player that is already an elite ballstriker.
The one downside to Justin Rose this week will be his popularity. He is really too cheap on DraftKings at only $9,900. While he is the second highest priced player on FanDuel, he unbelievably has six players priced above him on DraftKings. As a result, Rose's ownership will be substantial. I expect him to be one of the highest owned players in the Millionaire Maker. How should we handle this problem? We must be willing to differentiate our lineups in other spots by pairing Rose with players that we expect to be contrarian picks or go underowned.
The Ponies
Henrik Stenson (DK - $8,800 & FD - $11,300 )
I know, I know...this list is quite chalky so far. Henrik Stenson has been rolling in 2018 and should be on everyone's radar this week. Since missing the cut at the Valspar Championship in March, Stenson has played on the weekend in six consecutive tournaments, with two Top-5's, a sixth, and two Top-25's. The sixth came in The Masters, a tournament that Stenson has traditionally struggled in throughout his career. I believe that is a very positive sign for this week. The 42-year-old Swede seems to have a newfound willingness to adapt his game to what the course requires. In the past, we have witnessed some ugly performances from Stenson that included blow-up rounds and even early withdrawals. We haven't seen any signs of that type of frustration this season.
Stenson is perhaps the only player in the field that rivals Dustin Johnson's statistical dominance. Simply stated, Stenson has put on a ballstriking clinic this year. He ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green, Greens in Regulation, and Driving Accuracy. Stenson's lack of distance off the tee is a bit worrisome at a U.S. Open layout, but he is solid overall, ranking 13th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The Swede's putting has always been his achilles heel, but he is rolling it well enough to contend. In 540 recorded holes this season, Stenson has only 12 three-putts.
The Iceman might be the highest owned player on DraftKings this week. I hope that I'm wrong about that, but that's the feeling that I'm getting. Like Rose, Stenson's price is really too cheap. I'm willing to eat the chalk with Stenson this week. Contrary to popular opinion, it is very possible to win a large-field GPP with a chalky player, but it is important to differentiate our lineups in other spots. A little trick that I like to employ when I have a couple of popular guys in a lineup is leaving some salary on the table. Most casual fans that enter lineups in majors will use every bit of the available salary cap. I've found that leaving even a few hundred dollars on the table can make a surprisingly substantial difference.
Francesco Molinari (DK - $7,600 & FD - $9,200 )
Those of you that read Horse For The Course regularly might remember that Franceso Molinari burned me pretty badly at The Players Championship. Unfortunately, that's the risk with streaky players like Molinari. Of course, shortly after The Players, Molinari seemed to find his putting stroke and won the huge BMW PGA Championship event in Europe. The Italian followed that victory with a second place finish at the Italian Open a week later. I'm jumping back on Molinari this week in an attempt to ride the hot streak.
Molinari's ballstriking is elite as evidenced by his ranks of 15th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and 7th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The issue has always been his balky putter. Molinari is a miserable 202nd in Strokes Gained: Putting over 27 measured rounds this season. However, on the rare occasions that Molinari gets his putting stroke working he is able to win tournaments such as the BMW PGA Championship.
The Italian Stallion is a boom-or-bust DFS option and I am recommending him on a GPP basis only. Molinari is not a player for the faint of heart. If you are only playing a single lineup this week, you might want to go with a safer option in this price range, like a Webb Simpson or Matt Kuchar. I favor Molinari in large-field GPPs because of his massive upside, but we must also be prepared for a missed cut if he his struggling with the putter. Those entering multiple lineups definitely need exposure to a player with Top-10 upside like Molinari.
Emiliano Grillo (DK - $7,100 & FD - $8,800 )
As we make our way down the price scale, I'm jumping on Emiliano Grillo. The 25-year-old from Argentina is almost criminally underpriced this week and his ownership will probably reflect that. Grillo has been playing at a borderline elite level this year. He has made the cut in every tournament he's played in 2018 and logged two Top-5 finishes along the way. Grillo is relatively inexperienced in major championships, but he grabbed Top-20 finishes in The Masters, The Open Championship, and the PGA Championship in 2016.
Grillo seems to play tough golf courses well and that is definitely the case with Shinnecock Hills this week. His game is solid from tee-to-green, he ranks inside the Top 30 in multiple Strokes Gained categories, including: Off the Tee, Approach, Putting, and Tee to Green. He is also 10th in Driving Accuracy Percentage and 37th in Scrambling From The Rough. We are getting a lot of bang for our buck with Grillo this week.
I am all-in on Grillo this week. I feel comfortable using him in both cash games and GPPs. He will be popular, but I'm willing to eat the chalk in order to gain what I feel is tremendous value. Grillo is the perfect compliment to Dustin Johnson in aggressive lineups. For those of you that are a tad conservative, I also like the safety that the veteran Steve Stricker offers in this price range, though I think Grillo's upside is far greater.
Sam Burns (DK - $6,400 & FD - $7,900)
Let's do a little dumpster diving for our final selection. That term is probably not fair to apply to Sam Burns, who I think is a rising star in the golf world. Burns has limited professional experience, but we have seen some flashes of brilliance. The young LSU product was paired with Tiger Woods in the final round of the Honda Classic earlier this year and responded with a clutch 68 on the way to an eighth place finish. Almost more important than the finish, the pairing with Tiger shows me that the young man can handle the pressure of big moments similar to what he will face this week. Burns played well on a tough golf course at the Valspar Championship, where he picked up a 12th place finish. The 21-year-old also grabbed a victory on the Web.com Tour in April when he captured the Savannah Golf Championship.
Burns is a bomber with touch, which golf fans know is a rarity. In limited measured rounds on the PGA Tour this year, he ranks 11th in Driving Distance and 4th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Now, those numbers are skewed by the sample size, but they aren't far off from his Web.com stats. Shinnecock Hills will challenge players both off the tee and on the greens. Burns has the tools to compete.
Obviously, I'm recommending Burns as a GPP-only value play. He is a great player to sprinkle in for those mass-entering tournaments. At this price we would be very happy with a made cut, which I think Burns is definitely capable of. He allows us to fit both our horses, DJ and Rose, in the same lineup. I will tread lightly with Burns, but he is definitely a viable gamble in this price range.
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