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Welcome to the latest edition of the PGA DFS Hole-By-Hole Breakdown, where Josh Bennett (@JishSwish) breaks down the course the PGA Tour is playing each week. We think this course breakdown is an important slice of the "PGA DFS pie" and will help change the way you do your research for every tournament. A good understanding of the course that's being played is extremely important before diving into individual players. Each week, this article will give you everything you need to know about the course, strategies players could take, and statistics that fit the specifics of the layout.
This week's Breakdown features Quail Hollow Club for the PGA Tour's Wells Fargo Championship. They have to keep it between the trees and hit long irons well to be successful this week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
*Note: images of the course on Google Earth are from before the course updates in 2016, so they are not present in this edition of the breakdown because the current images in Google Earth are inaccurate.
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Hole 1: Par 4, 495 Yards
Off the Tee: A difficult tee shot to start the round. It is narrow between the trees and bunkers line the left side and are in play no matter how far or short they hit it. This is a long hole and will leave a long approach no matter what, so keeping it straight will be important.
Approach: A long approach to a narrow green that is surrounded by bunkers. There really is no good place or easy place to miss on this hole. Anything on the green is great and a par should be a great score to start the round.
Advantage: Ball-Striking, Total Driving, Scrambling, GIR
Hole 2: Par 4, 452 Yards
Off The Tee: A little extra room on the second tee shot, but it still has to be between the trees. Extremely long hitters may be able to cut the corner going left and have a much shorter approach shot left. Long and straight is always an advantage obviously, but it's important on this hole and will be the theme we will see throughout the course.
Approach: A shorter approach than the last hole, but it will be with a mid-iron still. The green is similar to the first hole, there is just less protection from bunkers. Just one bunker on this hole at the back-right. This should be a more gettable hole, but par will still be plenty good because of the length.
Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking
Hole 3: Par 4, 483 Yards
Off the Tee: They can move this tee back over 500 yards if they want to, but should be no need to do that as the tee shot is hard enough already. Anyone with average length or more will have to avoid a fairway bunker on the right, the rest should have some extra space to miss on the left. A right miss is out of bounds on the driving range, so we will probably see a lot of tee shots error to the left.
Approach: Another mid-iron approach for most to a larger green than the last two with bunkers protecting the front. This will be an easier green to hit than the first two, but the approach is still with a longer iron so there will be plenty of misses. Just like the first two holes, anything on the green with a good chance for par is great.
Advantage: Ball-Striking, Total Driving, Scrambling
Hole 4: Par 3, 184 Yards
Approach: This will be a mid-iron for most of the field to a decent-sized green with bunkers that protect the front. If there's scoring to be had, it could start on this hole.
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 3 Scoring
Hole 5: Par 4, 449 Yards
Off the Tee: More room to miss on this tee shot, but bunkers are strategically placed so that the really long hitters have to contend with two bunkers instead of just one on the right. It may even entice some of them to take a fairway wood off the tee. They'll likely want to hang around the 300-yard mark to avoid the bunker issues off the tee and leave a short-iron in.
Approach: A short-iron into this green that has just one bunker protecting the front-right. Given that there is not much issues with the tee shot, they should be able to do some flag hunting here and leave a good chance at scoring for two holes in a row.
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 6: Par 3, 249 Yards
Approach: From a short par 3 to a very long par 3, they were at least nice enough to leave the front of this nice-sized green open to roll the ball up onto. Shorter hitters will probably have fairway woods in their hands here, especially if the wind is coming back into them. Due to the length of the hole, anything on or near the green with a good chance at a par is plenty good.
Advantage: GIR, Scrambling
Hole 7: Par 5, 546 Yards
Off The Tee: Although many holes are long on this course, this par 5 is actually short for these guys. A big miss left will be out of bounds and a big miss right will be in the water or also out of bounds, so straight is the key here. Average length and longer hitters will also have to contend with the fairway bunkers on the left. They will have a great chance of scoring if they can keep the ball in play, so accuracy is important here.
Approach: As long as the tee shot has a look at the green, the whole field should have a shot at getting to this green in two. The green is large and it's main protection is water on the front right. They'll likely error to the left or take extra club to make sure they're getting over the water. From there it shouldn't be too difficult to get the ball near the hole for a great scoring chance.
Advantage: Ball-Striking, Driving Accuracy, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 8: Par 4, 346 Yards
Off The Tee: This is definitely a risk/reward tee shot, but most will likely opt to lay up off the tee. Bunkers are lined up nicely on the left side to catch any miss that way, and trees are on the right if it goes too far that way. There is also a bunker in the front of the green that will catch any balls that try to roll up towards the green. The likely play will be a shot around 245 yards leaving just over 100 left.
Approach: A wedge from around 100 yards is likely for the whole field. The bunker in front of the green won't be in play with wedges, they'll just go after the pin locations here and try to get a birdie on the card. For a course that won't give up many of them, it will be important to have a chance at one on this hole.
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 9: Par 4, 505 Yards
Off the Tee: A very long par 4 here with trees lining both sides of the fairway. As mentioned before, long and straight is the key here, not much else to it.
Approach: An approach near 200 yards for most on this hole to a green with bunkers protecting the front, so they won't be able to roll it up onto the green if they have a long way in. Front pin locations will make this hole much more difficult as many will error long or choose to play out of the bunkers in the front. Any way they can get a par on this hole will be good.
Advantage: Ball-Striking, Total Driving, GIR, Scrambling
Hole 10: Par 5, 592 Yards
Off the Tee: Not much of note on this hole. Trees once again line the fairway on both sides, but there's a little extra room after about 270 yards so they should be able to keep it in play here. Even with a miss, it's a long hole so the strategy really comes into play on the second shot, not the tee shot.
Approach: Very long hitters may be able to give this green a go in two, otherwise the rest will be coming in with a wedge. The front of the green is open, so the long hitters can run the ball up onto the green if they need to. It is a small green though, so getting it onto the green from that far away will be difficult. GIR percentage will be high on this hole, but likely won't be many under GIR's. It should be a scoring hole whether they're coming in with wedges after a layup or tried to get to the green in two.
Advantage: Driving Distance, Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 11: Par 4, 462 Yards
Off the Tee: Another tee shot that will require both length and accuracy. The very long hitters can eliminate the fairway bunkers on the left, which will be a huge advantage, especially since the hole also bends that way. Long hitters will have much shorter approaches in to the green with less tree trouble. The rest have to keep it straight to stay out of the trees and bunkers.
Approach: Long hitters could end up with wedges in their hands, others will be playing mid-irons. The green is small, so having a wedge will be a huge advantage. Bunkers also protect the left side and will be in play on longer approaches.
Advantage: Driving Distance, SG: Approach
Hole 12: Par 4, 456 Yards
Off the Tee: No surprise here. Long and straight needed. The fairway is narrow and trees aren't far off either side. It will be a very difficult fairway to hit.
Approach: Another mid-iron or possible short-iron for longer hitters to a narrow green protected on the front corners by bunkers. Given how narrow the fairway is, we will probably see a lot of shots coming in low to the ground in the form of punch-outs or keeping it under trees, so the bunkers in the front will be more in play than you would think. The tee shot makes this hole very difficult, so a par will be a great score.
Advantage: Ball-Striking, Total Driving, Scrambling
Hole 13: Par 3, 208 Yards
Approach: Made it to the 13th hole to get a par 3 that is a little more standard in length for the tour. Bunkers are on the front and right sides and will be in play when pins are near them. It is not an overly difficult hole, but the shot is still pretty long so anything that gets onto the green for a shot at par is plenty good.
Advantage: GIR
Hole 14: Par 4, 344 Yards
Off The Tee: We probably won't see anyone try to take this green on, and we should see a lot of tee shots from clubs other than driver here. Anything to keep the tee shot out of the bunkers and the water is just fine.
Approach: The green is very narrow and it's main defense is water on the left. There are some bunkers as well but are not really in play, given that they'll have wedges into this green. Just like the last short par 4, it will be important to get a scoring chance on this hole because there aren't many of them throughout the course.
Advantage: SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring
Hole 15: Par 5, 577 Yards
Off The Tee: They have to be careful with water on the left here, but there should be enough room that they can miss a little right and still be OK. The real strategy comes into play on the approach.
Approach: Longer hitters may be able to get to the green if they want, but the green is protected in the front by a bunker and it is a smaller green, so most will likely hit their second shots to a comfortable wedge distance. From there, bunkers won't be in play anymore and it should be another scoring hole like the last one.
Advantage: Ball-Striking, SG: Approach, Par 5 Scoring
Hole 16: Par 4, 506 Yards
Off The Tee: Plenty of room off this tee, but the hole is long so length will be important. Leaving a look at the green is the main priority though because the upcoming approach will be difficult.
Approach: A long approach to this green that is narrow and protected mostly by water on the left side. There is a bunker on the right side that will collect shots that error to the right in order to avoid the water. There won't be many balls that make it onto the green on this hole, so we will see a lot of short game work here.
Advantage: Ball-Striking, Total Driving, Scrambling
Hole 17: Par 3, 190 Yards
Approach: The approach on this hole will be extremely similar to the approach on the last hole. A long shot that will have to error right because of water on the left. The only difference to the last hole is that there is no bunker on the right side, so a miss right is a little more safe. Again, just like the last hole, short game will be on display here and par will be a great score.
Advantage: GIR, Scrambling
Hole 18: Par 4, 494 Yards
Off the Tee: The only hole on the course that has wide open driving areas is the last one, although they do have to be careful of the water running down the middle of the hole. Avoid that and there's not much else to this tee shot.
Approach: A short or mid-iron to a decent-sized green that has the water running on the left side and two bunkers on the right. Like most other holes before this one, because of the length of the hole, anything onto the green with a chance for a par is plenty good to finish out the round.
Advantage: Driving Distance, SG: Approach, Scrambling
Conclusions
Good Ball-Striking is the key to this course, with equal importance on length and accuracy. Many holes are narrow and tree-lined, but they're also very long so getting shorter approaches from longer drives will be an advantage.
There won't be a ton of scoring on the par 4's other than the two short ones, so they need to take advantage and score on the par 5's. Good par 5 scorers will give themselves some cushion for the hard par 4's.
Approach play, especially with mid or longer irons will be important, given how long all the par 3's and par 4's are. Long hitters will be using them on the par 5's as well. Good play from longer distances will help keep bogeys off the sorecard.
Other stats to consider: Total Driving, GIR, Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Approach
Assumptions
Images and measurements were done on Google Earth. These satellite images can sometimes be up to five or more years old and not show very recent changes to courses if there were any.
Carry distance is used for off-the-tee distances shown in the images. The average carry distance on tour in 2021 was 281 yards, so that is what is used here.
I used a total dispersion off-the-tee of 60 yards. This comes from an article that Jon Sherman wrote for Practical Golf (@practicalgolf) discussing average dispersion, and I took 5-10 yards off from that number.
I assumed a 10-15 yard roll out from the carry distance to start the measurement to the green. Measurements to the green were rounded to the nearest five yards and measured from the center of the fairway to the center of the green.
Green measurements were also measured to the nearest five yards.
Things like weather, rough length, elevation, etc. are not taken into consideration on the measurements. I can only see and assume so much from satellite images. However, I do note where possible on each hole if things like elevation and wind could impact how the hole plays.
Scorecard:
