PGA Betting Advice - RBC Heritage Picks

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best under-the-radar plays for the RBC Heritage.

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (81-40-7), netting over 45 units of profit and a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 18 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and three so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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Head-To-Head Selection

Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello -105

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

For what it is worth, Byeong Hun An over Rafa Cabrera Bello is grading out to have the highest win equity advantage for me of any play on the card. Part of the reason behind this is due to Cabrera Bello's poor scoring numbers, although that doesn't become quite as pronounced at shorter venues. Still, though, Cabrera Bello ranks outside the top-100 over his previous 50 rounds in GIR, proximity from 150-200 yards, par-four and five scoring, good drive percentage, birdies or better gained and strokes gained approach.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

I typically don't deviate away from what my math says, but something is causing me slight trepidation with Hun An's volatility level. European players with limited rounds on the PGA Tour yearly will also grade lower than anticipated, and a venue such as Harbour Town does suit the Spaniard's game to a T. There is enough advantage there for me to overlook some of my concerns, but it doesn't mean I am jumping for joy behind the selection.

0.75 Units to Win 0.65

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First Round Leader

• Matthew Fitzpatrick 60/1
• Brian Harman 80/1
• Byeong Hun An 80/1
• Maverick McNealy 125/1
• Russell Henley 125/1
• Bronson Burgoon 150/1
• Talor Gooch 150/1
• Lanto Griffin 150/1
• Chez Reavie 150/1
• Cameron Tringale 150/1
• Sebastian Munoz 150/1

These first-round leader wagers will always carry minimal exposure but are a fun way to get a little action going at a hefty price early in the week. The goal is to find as much volatility as possible on these players and hope to get lucky with the putter in round one.

Top-20

Matthew NeSmith 8/1

Matthew NeSmith has quietly put together nine made cuts in his previous 10 events, finishing inside the top-20 in four of those appearances. Yes, this week's tournament has the big boys out in full effect, but you have to find it encouraging that three of the shorter venues on tour (Pebble Beach, Sea Island and the PGA West Stadium Course) were the locations of his top-20s.

Bernhard Langer 20/1

We went down this road last weekend in my premium article with Bernhard Langer as a top-20 wager, but the 62-year-old was unable to ever get much going by losing 2.2 shots with his putter. If we are looking for some positives, iron play was not the issue with Langer gaining 1.56 shots with his approach game over two days, and we should view that as a positive with Harbour Town being a better natural set up for him to plod his way around the track. We are going to need a little better putting if we are going to get this longshot wager across the finish line, but Bermuda has historically been Langer's best surface.

Last Recorded Results (Charles Schwab)

0-1-0 H2H (-0.75 Units)

Corey Conners Top-20 (6/1 odds) - Dead-heat winner for 2.5/1 odds.

For as poor as last weekend went across the board for us, Corey Conners was able to partially salvage the week with his share of 19th place in Texas. For those of you who aren't aware of how top-20 wagers work when they cross the dead-heat threshold, the best way to describe how to calculate your payout would be this:

Take your potential winnings + stake, divide that by how many players are tied for that spot and multiply that by how many places are available to be had. In this example, a $10 wager would payout $70 total with a non-split win ($60 in winnings + $10 stake). Four players tied for 19th place ($70 divided by 4 =$17.5) and we have two spots up for grabs at 19th and 20th place ($17.5 x 2 =$35.00).

It is unfortunate that we weren't able to grab the full 6/1 price with how the back-nine went for Conners, but it is always nice to secure some profit when we can.

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (9-5-1)

+3.99 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

14-10-0 (+5.66 Units)

2020 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

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