X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Cost Analysis - Ozzie Albies vs Jonathan Villar

Ozzie Albies - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Second basemen Ozzie Albies and Jonathan Villar are fantasy baseball draft options with different ADPs that might provide similar value in 2019. Riley Mrack examines each player to decide how to approach the 2B position on draft day.

Second base has become a treasure chest full of talent in 2019. Seeing the position’s deepest player pool in recent memory, each tier of hitters is overflowing with draft day targets. With a mixture of established veterans and a new crop of young talent that is beginning to flourish in the big leagues, the keystone position currently offers plenty of power and speed options.

Ozzie Albies of the Atlanta Braves is a player who offers both of these highly sought after tools. A heavily admired talent among baseball experts within MLB as well as the fantasy community, he’s a superb young player who brings a dynamic energy to the diamond. Currently being selected as the fourth two-bagger off the board, is his ADP of 54 a good value?

With the newfound depth at the position, this selection might be a tad high for the 22-year-old. A comparable option who is going 34 picks later is Jonathan Villar. Although not nearly as sexy of a name to announce on draft day, the results that these two hitters will put up in 2019 could be remarkably similar. A close look at their respective skill sets will have you thinking twice on which player you’ll want to target for your roster.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Al-bies Knees

Albies’ season as a whole was impressive for a 21-year-old in his first big league campaign. He smacked 24 home runs with 105 R, 72 RBI, and 14 stolen bases to go along with a .261 AVG. He profiled as more of a speed threat than a power threat as he made his way through the minor league ranks, so the results of his HR and SB totals were surprising.

What aided Albies’ home run total was his profound ability to square up the baseball through the first three months of the year. He had a Barrel% of 5.9%, and a 33.2% Hard Hit% until the end of June that helped him get the ball out of the park. His 40.2% FB% and 14.8% HR/FB were both numbers he had never met in his entire professional career, which led to 17 HR in these months. Hitting only three more taters in July, he only hit four after July 11 as he didn’t hit the ball with the same prowess that he had done earlier. Although the switch-hitter’s FB% was nearly identical at 39.6%, his HR/FB cut almost in half to 7.5% from July to September. Albies could only maintain a 3.3% Barrel% and an underwhelming 24.6% Hard Hit% in this span, so the ball wasn’t traveling off the bat hard enough to hit the bleachers.

It wasn’t just his pop that suffered in the second half; it was his overall batting game. A .281 AVG pre-break was followed up by a dismal .226 AVG post-break. Albies was lighting it up on both sides of the plate early before faltering against right-handers in the second half. His batting average fell dramatically from .269 to .161 against these pitchers as a result of his BABIP also nosediving from .286 to .192. This drop was again due to the lack of hard hit balls that he was producing in the second half as well as his LD% dropping from 21.7% to 18.3%. Albies saw a heftier dose of off-speed and breaking pitches towards the end of the year as the league did a great job of keeping him off-balance. He will need to adapt to this new pitching approach in 2019 if he wants to return to his previous batting success of squaring up the baseball.

Since he wasn’t finding the same batted-ball profits, the Braves moved him to the bottom half of the lineup for the majority of September. This new spot in the order held a significant impact on his counting stats with the lack of at-bats. Assuming that the demotion in the lineup would cause him to take more chances on the basepaths to create more run opportunities, this wasn’t the case as he only stole two bags from the sixth spot in the Braves order.

 

Villar Radar

Villar doesn't offer as much upside as a player in comparison to Albies, but he is a compelling piece to any fantasy lineup. After an outstanding 2016, he fell back to Earth in 2017 and 2018 as he put up a modest 14 HR, 54 R, and 46 RBI to go along with a .260 AVG last year. Nothing too astonishing, but when you throw in the fact that he had 35 SB, he becomes a fantasy darling. With legitimate base path threats becoming more scarce in this day and age, Villar becomes very appealing. Despite his thrilling speed, he does offer more to the roto categories than we might initially anticipate going into 2019.

There is more to be desired with his career 8.9% BB% and 27.3% K%, but when Villar puts the ball in play, he tends to get on base. His .342 career BABIP has proven to be more than sustainable as he’s maintained this level of production throughout all of his professional years. Using his speed to his advantage, he keeps the ball on the ground at a career 2.41 GB/FB. Also a switch-hitter, he’s matchup proof with career LHH/RHH splits of .262/.254. While the 27-year-old is not a threat to win a batting title, his batting average has a safe floor with his approach and ability to be consistent on both sides of the dish.

Since being traded to the Baltimore Orioles at last year’s trade deadline, Villar’s ceiling as a home run hitter has expanded. Although his former confines of Miller Park were also hitter-friendly, Camden Yards is more balanced for all hitters and plays much better for right-handed batters. This move helps Villar as he’s put up better power numbers on this side of the dish with a .414 SLG and .147 ISO compared to .374/.117 as a lefty. He also already saw an improved performance in his two-month sample size with his new club as he went yard eight times in 54 games. Villar is unlikely to change his GB/FB approach, but he's still managed to average 17 HR per 162 games over his last three seasons.

With the move to a less offensively talented team, he spent all of his games with the Orioles batting in the top three spots of the order. In Milwaukee, Villar spent the majority of his starts as the sixth or seventh batter, which limited his counting stats. The O’s also gave him the green light more often as he stole 21 bags in 236 ABs compared to his 14 thefts in 279 ABs with the Brewers. With Baltimore searching for ways to score runs with a depreciated lineup in 2019, expect this trend to continue moving forward.

 

Where’s The Value?

The primary factor we look at as a fantasy player is the return value. If you're taking Albies at his current ADP, he will have to meet or exceed all five of his roto categories from 2018 to achieve a positive return value. After his Jekyll/Hyde 2018 performance, it's far from a guarantee that this will happen. His batted-ball metrics in the final few months of the year are concerning but we are dealing with a player in his age 21 season after all. It’s possible Albies will adjust to the pitching he saw in the second half, but it’s still a risky bet to assume he will outproduce his ADP. With manager Brian Snitker already stating he prefers Ender Inciarte in the leadoff spot, Albies projects to remain the sixth batter in the Braves lineup. Undoubtedly a stacked offensive lineup, it remains a huge hit to all of his counting stats further damaging his fantasy potential.

Though he is in a worse offense with the Orioles, Villar will still see just as many opportunities on the bases to score runs and steal bases at the top of their lineup. He may not possess the same average and power potential that Albies does, but with the move to the AL East and their notoriously hitter-friendly parks, it will help balance out his pop. He does, however, carry a higher ceiling in the SB category as he's now averaged 40 thefts in the last three seasons. In re-draft leagues, Villar is the player to target with his return value being higher at his 88 ADP.

More Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF