X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Cost Analysis - Ozzie Albies vs Jonathan Villar

Ozzie Albies - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Second basemen Ozzie Albies and Jonathan Villar are fantasy baseball draft options with different ADPs that might provide similar value in 2019. Riley Mrack examines each player to decide how to approach the 2B position on draft day.

Second base has become a treasure chest full of talent in 2019. Seeing the position’s deepest player pool in recent memory, each tier of hitters is overflowing with draft day targets. With a mixture of established veterans and a new crop of young talent that is beginning to flourish in the big leagues, the keystone position currently offers plenty of power and speed options.

Ozzie Albies of the Atlanta Braves is a player who offers both of these highly sought after tools. A heavily admired talent among baseball experts within MLB as well as the fantasy community, he’s a superb young player who brings a dynamic energy to the diamond. Currently being selected as the fourth two-bagger off the board, is his ADP of 54 a good value?

With the newfound depth at the position, this selection might be a tad high for the 22-year-old. A comparable option who is going 34 picks later is Jonathan Villar. Although not nearly as sexy of a name to announce on draft day, the results that these two hitters will put up in 2019 could be remarkably similar. A close look at their respective skill sets will have you thinking twice on which player you’ll want to target for your roster.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Al-bies Knees

Albies’ season as a whole was impressive for a 21-year-old in his first big league campaign. He smacked 24 home runs with 105 R, 72 RBI, and 14 stolen bases to go along with a .261 AVG. He profiled as more of a speed threat than a power threat as he made his way through the minor league ranks, so the results of his HR and SB totals were surprising.

What aided Albies’ home run total was his profound ability to square up the baseball through the first three months of the year. He had a Barrel% of 5.9%, and a 33.2% Hard Hit% until the end of June that helped him get the ball out of the park. His 40.2% FB% and 14.8% HR/FB were both numbers he had never met in his entire professional career, which led to 17 HR in these months. Hitting only three more taters in July, he only hit four after July 11 as he didn’t hit the ball with the same prowess that he had done earlier. Although the switch-hitter’s FB% was nearly identical at 39.6%, his HR/FB cut almost in half to 7.5% from July to September. Albies could only maintain a 3.3% Barrel% and an underwhelming 24.6% Hard Hit% in this span, so the ball wasn’t traveling off the bat hard enough to hit the bleachers.

It wasn’t just his pop that suffered in the second half; it was his overall batting game. A .281 AVG pre-break was followed up by a dismal .226 AVG post-break. Albies was lighting it up on both sides of the plate early before faltering against right-handers in the second half. His batting average fell dramatically from .269 to .161 against these pitchers as a result of his BABIP also nosediving from .286 to .192. This drop was again due to the lack of hard hit balls that he was producing in the second half as well as his LD% dropping from 21.7% to 18.3%. Albies saw a heftier dose of off-speed and breaking pitches towards the end of the year as the league did a great job of keeping him off-balance. He will need to adapt to this new pitching approach in 2019 if he wants to return to his previous batting success of squaring up the baseball.

Since he wasn’t finding the same batted-ball profits, the Braves moved him to the bottom half of the lineup for the majority of September. This new spot in the order held a significant impact on his counting stats with the lack of at-bats. Assuming that the demotion in the lineup would cause him to take more chances on the basepaths to create more run opportunities, this wasn’t the case as he only stole two bags from the sixth spot in the Braves order.

 

Villar Radar

Villar doesn't offer as much upside as a player in comparison to Albies, but he is a compelling piece to any fantasy lineup. After an outstanding 2016, he fell back to Earth in 2017 and 2018 as he put up a modest 14 HR, 54 R, and 46 RBI to go along with a .260 AVG last year. Nothing too astonishing, but when you throw in the fact that he had 35 SB, he becomes a fantasy darling. With legitimate base path threats becoming more scarce in this day and age, Villar becomes very appealing. Despite his thrilling speed, he does offer more to the roto categories than we might initially anticipate going into 2019.

There is more to be desired with his career 8.9% BB% and 27.3% K%, but when Villar puts the ball in play, he tends to get on base. His .342 career BABIP has proven to be more than sustainable as he’s maintained this level of production throughout all of his professional years. Using his speed to his advantage, he keeps the ball on the ground at a career 2.41 GB/FB. Also a switch-hitter, he’s matchup proof with career LHH/RHH splits of .262/.254. While the 27-year-old is not a threat to win a batting title, his batting average has a safe floor with his approach and ability to be consistent on both sides of the dish.

Since being traded to the Baltimore Orioles at last year’s trade deadline, Villar’s ceiling as a home run hitter has expanded. Although his former confines of Miller Park were also hitter-friendly, Camden Yards is more balanced for all hitters and plays much better for right-handed batters. This move helps Villar as he’s put up better power numbers on this side of the dish with a .414 SLG and .147 ISO compared to .374/.117 as a lefty. He also already saw an improved performance in his two-month sample size with his new club as he went yard eight times in 54 games. Villar is unlikely to change his GB/FB approach, but he's still managed to average 17 HR per 162 games over his last three seasons.

With the move to a less offensively talented team, he spent all of his games with the Orioles batting in the top three spots of the order. In Milwaukee, Villar spent the majority of his starts as the sixth or seventh batter, which limited his counting stats. The O’s also gave him the green light more often as he stole 21 bags in 236 ABs compared to his 14 thefts in 279 ABs with the Brewers. With Baltimore searching for ways to score runs with a depreciated lineup in 2019, expect this trend to continue moving forward.

 

Where’s The Value?

The primary factor we look at as a fantasy player is the return value. If you're taking Albies at his current ADP, he will have to meet or exceed all five of his roto categories from 2018 to achieve a positive return value. After his Jekyll/Hyde 2018 performance, it's far from a guarantee that this will happen. His batted-ball metrics in the final few months of the year are concerning but we are dealing with a player in his age 21 season after all. It’s possible Albies will adjust to the pitching he saw in the second half, but it’s still a risky bet to assume he will outproduce his ADP. With manager Brian Snitker already stating he prefers Ender Inciarte in the leadoff spot, Albies projects to remain the sixth batter in the Braves lineup. Undoubtedly a stacked offensive lineup, it remains a huge hit to all of his counting stats further damaging his fantasy potential.

Though he is in a worse offense with the Orioles, Villar will still see just as many opportunities on the bases to score runs and steal bases at the top of their lineup. He may not possess the same average and power potential that Albies does, but with the move to the AL East and their notoriously hitter-friendly parks, it will help balance out his pop. He does, however, carry a higher ceiling in the SB category as he's now averaged 40 thefts in the last three seasons. In re-draft leagues, Villar is the player to target with his return value being higher at his 88 ADP.

More Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF