X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

Overvalued, Undervalued Trade Targets - Buy/Sell for Fantasy Baseball (Week 7)

michael harris II fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers waiver wire pickups

Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball. Almost as much as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and then see their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor where the standings are concerned.

The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.

Here are some undervalued candidates to pursue in trades and some overvalued ones who you should consider dealing for if they presently occupy a spot on your roster.

 

Undervalued Players To Trade For

Michael Harris, Atlanta Braves

Harris missed time earlier this season due to a stint on the injured list with a lower back strain, so his sample size of plate appearances isn’t quite as large as it could be.

In 55 plate appearances this season as of the start of play on Wednesday, the outfielder is batting .208 with a .309 on-base percentage, a home run, and three stolen bases.

At face value, it’s not an ideal set of metrics for a player who had a breakout rookie season, batting .297 with a .339 on-base percentage, 19 home runs, and 20 stolen bases in 441 plate appearances. The 22-year-old also added the following metrics, making plenty of quality contact.

  • .335 xwOBA
  • 10.1% barrel rate
  • 44.8% hard-hit rate
  • 24.3% strikeout rate
  • 4.8% walk rate

But Harris’ underlying metrics, at least in a small sample size so far, show a significant improvement over last year’s metrics.

Again, we’re still dealing with fewer than 60 plate appearances, but there’s a lot to like about Harris’ underlying metrics so far:

  • .354 xwOBA
  • 15.8% barrel rate
  • 55.3% hard-hit rate
  • 18.2% strikeout rate
  • 10.9% walk rate

What’s more, Harris is also hitting the ball in the air more -- his ground ball rate has dropped from 55.8% last year to 50% this year and his fly ball rate has spiked from 17.9% to 28.9% -- with more barrels. He’s also striking out less so far and drawing walks at a higher rate.

In most instances, some combination of those are hallmarks of a player taking a step forward at the plate. But Harris is doing all of them at the moment. And while it still is a smaller sample size, Harris looks destined for some positive regression in the near future at worst. At best, he could have an even more impactful season than his rookie campaign -- from here on out that is.

Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates

Keller isn’t exactly the most undervalued fantasy pitcher at the moment, not after throwing a complete game, four-hit shutout in his last start.

Overall, the right-hander has pitched to a 2.72 ERA and a 3.02 FIP in 49.2 innings this season for the resurgent Pittsburgh Pirates. He has logged four pitcher wins in his eight starts and added 56 strikeouts compared to just 14 walks and four home runs allowed.

He’s been particularly effective in his last four starts, logging a 1.73 ERA and a 1.51 FIP in 26 innings while adding 10.73 strikeouts per nine frames compared to just 1.38 walks surrendered per nine frames.

Perhaps most crucially in that stretch -- which has also included three pitcher wins -- is the fact that Keller is limiting hard contact at an elite rate, with just a 31.8% hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 87.3 mph during that span.

For the season, opponents have managed just a 27.3% hard-hit rate against the Pirates ace, which sits in the 93rd percentile league-wide.

Speaking of percentile rankings, Keller ranks in the 62nd percentile or better in all of the following categories in addition to hard-hit rate: chase rate (62nd), walk rate (64th), xSLG (66th), xBA (70th), xwOBA (75th), and average exit velocity (88th).

Elsewhere, he entered play on Wednesday with the 14th-best Stuff+ (105) among qualified starters and the joint eighth-best Pitching+ (105) among the same group.

Everything here screams “legitimate” in terms of Keller’s ability, effectiveness, and fantasy ceiling.

However, perception can sometimes be everything. If someone in your league doesn’t think the breakout is real for Keller and thinks it might be fluke-like for a starter with a career 4.70 ERA and 3.96 FIP, now might be the time to make a move.

 

Overvalued Players To Trade Away

Starling Marte, New York Mets

In the past, Staring Marte has generally been productive despite low hard-hit rates. A combination of high BABIP metrics and low strikeout rates certainly helps in that regard, but the outfielder has hit at least .280 in each of the last four seasons despite posting respective hard-hit rates of 38.6%, 30.3%, 39.6%, and 33.9%, respectively.

Starling Marte In The Last Four Seasons:

  • 2019: 586 PA, .295 average, .362 xwOBA, 38.6% hard-hit rate, .319 BABIP
  • 2020: 250 PA, .281 average, .326 xwOBA, 30.3% hard-hit rate, .319 BABIP
  • 2021: 526 PA, .310 average, .347 xwOBA, 39.6% hard-hit rate, .372 BABIP
  • 2022: 505 PA, .292 average, .336 xwOBA, 33.9% hard-hit rate, .340 BABIP

This season, however, his hard-hit rate has fallen to 31.1%, his lowest in a full season since the 2017 campaign. And it’s not just the hard-hit rate either, Marte simply isn’t doing as much damage when he is making contact. He has a .338 xwOBAcon that is on track to be his lowest in a season in any of the last nine campaigns. For reference, Marte’s xwOBAcon has finished below the .370 mark just once in a full season since the start of the 2015 campaign.

Add in a .273 BABIP that is low to begin with and nearly .070 points below his career .342 BABIP, and you have an unideal combination where Marte’s production is concerned.

With that in mind, it shouldn't be a surprise that the veteran is batting just .223 with a .298 on-base percentage and a home run in 125 plate appearances this season.

With his ability to steal bases -- the outfielder has nine so far -- and a regular place in the New York Mets’ lineup, there’s still some fantasy value and upside to be had here. The stolen bases and the place in the Mets' lineup are exactly why now is the time to trade the veteran outfielder.

With stolen bases up league-wide, thus negatively impacting the value of fantasy players who primarily provide stolen base production, it’s possible to replace Marte’s production via the waiver wire or simply with the other players in your starting lineup.

What’s more, if another manager is willing to part with a significant fantasy contributor for Marte while banking on a potential rebound and his past success, it might be prudent to trade the Mets outfielder now. Because unless he suddenly starts getting more fortunate with his BABIP, there just isn’t enough in his underlying metrics to suggest that a major bounce-back is on the horizon this season.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jaylen Waddle1 hour ago

Clears Concussion Protocol
Saquon Barkley1 hour ago

To Do Individual Work Thursday
Pablo LĂłpez1 hour ago

Pablo Lopez To Start Game 1 Of Wild-Card Series
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.2 hours ago

Returns For Diamondbacks
Gus Edwards3 hours ago

No Longer In Concussion Protocol
Aaron Jones4 hours ago

Trending Toward Playing, May Be On A Snap Count
Christian Watson4 hours ago

Likely To Play, May Be Limited
David Montgomery4 hours ago

Expected To Play Thursday Night
John Klingberg5 hours ago

Forced To Exit Early Wednesday
Cole Perfetti5 hours ago

Under Evaluation After Taking Hit To The Head
Filip Zadina6 hours ago

Exits With Injury Wednesday
Mike Matheson6 hours ago

Misses Wednesday's Preseason Game With Injury
Roope Hintz6 hours ago

Unavailable Due To An Upper-Body Injury
Zach Whitecloud6 hours ago

Nursing Unspecified Injury
Christian Watson15 hours ago

Expected To Play Thursday Night
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.15 hours ago

Could Return Thursday
Aaron Nola16 hours ago

Won't Pitch Again In Regular Season
Ronald Acuña Jr.16 hours ago

Ronald Acuna Jr. Swipes 70th Bag Wednesday
Max Scherzer17 hours ago

Throws Light Bullpen
Derek Carr18 hours ago

No Practice For Derek Carr On Wednesday
Jerry Jeudy18 hours ago

Limited With Knee Injury
Golden State Warriors18 hours ago

Rudy Gay Signs Deal With Warriors
18 hours ago

Kobe Brown Healthy To Begin Training Camp
Bryce Young19 hours ago

On Track To Start In Week 4
Victor Oladipo19 hours ago

Won't Be Ready For Training Camp
Jerome Ford19 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Puka Nacua19 hours ago

Still Dealing With Oblique Injury
Miami Heat19 hours ago

R.J. Hampton Joins Heat On Two-Way Deal
James Conner19 hours ago

Dealing With Back Injury
Joe Burrow19 hours ago

Listed As Full Practice Participant
Kawhi Leonard19 hours ago

Paul George Healthy For Training Camp
Cooper Kupp19 hours ago

Rams Hoping Cooper Kupp Can Return In Week 5
Austin Ekeler19 hours ago

Returns To Practice
Christian Watson19 hours ago

Is Questionable For TNF
Corey Seager19 hours ago

To Play On Wednesday
Aaron Jones20 hours ago

Officially Questionable For TNF
Chas McCormick20 hours ago

Out Of The Lineup On Wednesday
David Montgomery20 hours ago

Listed As Questionable Ahead Of TNF
Brandon Aiyuk20 hours ago

Logs A Limited Practice On Wednesday
Deebo Samuel20 hours ago

Does Not Practice Wednesday
Joel Edmundson21 hours ago

To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Hand Injury
Jordan Kyrou22 hours ago

Misses Practice Wednesday
Justin Faulk22 hours ago

Expected To Return To Practice Thursday
Josh Norris22 hours ago

Inching Towards Return
Ryan Mountcastle22 hours ago

Back From Injured List
Jakob Pelletier22 hours ago

To Undergo Shoulder Surgery
Randy Arozarena22 hours ago

Back In Rays Lineup
Nassir Little22 hours ago

Keon Johnson Shipped To Suns
Dylan Gambrell22 hours ago

Suffers Concussion
Yandy DĂ­az22 hours ago

Yandy Diaz Still Out Wednesday
Mikael Backlund22 hours ago

Signs Two-Year Extension With Flames
Starling Marte22 hours ago

Won't Play Again This Year
Grayson Allen22 hours ago

Headed To Phoenix
Jrue Holiday23 hours ago

Moved To Portland In Massive Swap
Jusuf Nurkic23 hours ago

Joining Suns In Three-Team Deal
Deandre Ayton23 hours ago

Portland Obtains Deandre Ayton In Huge Trade
Damian Lillard24 hours ago

Bucks Acquiring Damian Lillard In Blockbuster Trade
Luis Arraez1 day ago

Remains Out For Game 1 Of Twin Bill Wednesday
Blake Wheeler1 day ago

Makes Scoring Debut For Rangers
Alex DeBrincat1 day ago

Debuts For Red Wings With Two Assists
Kasperi Kapanen1 day ago

Battling Minor Upper-Body Injury
Justin Faulk1 day ago

Exits Preseason Contest With Injury
Cam Atkinson1 day ago

Dealing With A Lower-Body Problem
Joel Edmundson1 day ago

In Danger Of Missing Start Of Season
Chas McCormick2 days ago

Injured Tuesday
Tanner Scott2 days ago

Goes On Paternity List
Corey Seager2 days ago

Says He's Fine After Suffering Forearm Bruise
Corey Seager2 days ago

Exits Early With Right Forearm Contusion
Damian Lillard2 days ago

Joining Heat Becoming "Unlikely"
Scottie Barnes2 days ago

"Not Available" In Trade Talks
Buddy Hield2 days ago

Pacers Want To Keep Buddy Hield
Chris Paul2 days ago

Steve Kerr Still Undecided On Chris Paul's Role
Rhys Hoskins2 days ago

Likely Won't Play This Year
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Will Remain With Stewart-Haas Racing In 2024
Los Angeles Clippers2 days ago

Clippers, Brodric Thomas Agree To Exhibit 10 Deal
Tyler Herro2 days ago

Jazz, Bulls, Hornets, Nets All Interested In Tyler Herro
MLB2 days ago

Mets-Marlins Postponed On Tuesday
Ben Simmons2 days ago

Is '100 Percent Healthy' Entering Training Camp
2 days ago

Dereck Lively II Will Get The Chance To Start
Matt Ryan2 days ago

Timberwolves Ink Matt Ryan To Two-Way Deal
Garrett Mitchell2 days ago

Unlikely To Be Activated
Carlos Correa2 days ago

Could Return This Weekend
Torey Krug2 days ago

Expects To Be Ready For Season Opener
Filip Chytil2 days ago

Day-To-Day With Upper-Body Injury
Minnesota Timberwolves3 days ago

Trevor Keels Signs With Timberwolves
Rafael Fiziev3 days ago

Suffers Knee Injury To Cut Main Event Short
Rafael Fiziev3 days ago

Mateusz Gamrot Victorious After Rafael Fiziev Suffers Knee Injury
Michelle Waterson-Gomez3 days ago

Dominated In TKO Loss
AJ Fletcher3 days ago

Drops To 1-3 In The UFC
AJ Fletcher3 days ago

Bryan Battle Submits AJ Fletcher For Second Straight Finishing Win
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Speeding Penalty Costs Him Big At Texas
William Byron3 days ago

Earns Sixth Win Of Season At Texas
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Secures Third Straight Top-Five Finish At Texas
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Late Wreck Ruins Tyler Reddick's Race At Texas
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Delivers Big Value At Texas
Kyle Busch3 days ago

Championship Hopes Take Big Hit After Texas Wreck
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Overcomes Throttle Issue To Finish Second At Texas
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace "Gave it Away" At Texas, Finishes Third
Chris Buescher3 days ago

Has Another Strong Points Day At Texas
Kyle Larson3 days ago

On Playoff Hot Seat After Wrecking At Texas
Ricardo Ramos4 days ago

Submitted Early At UFC Vegas 79
Charles Jourdain4 days ago

Extends Win Streak To Two
Marina Rodriguez4 days ago

Scores One-Sided TKO Win At UFC Vegas 79
Dan Ige4 days ago

Falls Short Against Another Top-10 Opponent
Bryce Mitchell4 days ago

Returns To Win Column At UFC Vegas 79
Brad Keselowski4 days ago

Feels Good About His Car at Texas
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

a Very Strong Option at Texas
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Pegged as Favorite to Win at Texas
Carson Hocevar5 days ago

Looks Impressive Again at Texas
Zane Smith5 days ago

Slow In Practice and Qualifying at Texas
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

in Downgraded Equipment for Texas
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Will Start 25th At Texas
Chase Briscoe5 days ago

The Top Value Play On Sunday At Texas
Ricky Stenhouse Jr5 days ago

.'s Struggles At Texas To Continue This Weekend
Joey Logano5 days ago

Makes For A Nice Bounce Back Play At Texas

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP