4 Overvalued Wide Receivers To Avoid In 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts

Adam's four wide receivers to avoid in fantasy football drafts for 2025. His four overvalued wide receivers (WRs) to avoid in 2025 fantasy football leagues and drafts.

In a previous article, I wrote about four tight ends to avoid in 2025 fantasy football. In this article, we'll take a look at the wide receiver position. Who should you avoid and why?

All four of these guys have big names. Some might call them "polarizing" players heading into the 2025 season. But that doesn't mean you should draft them in fantasy football. In fact, these are guys you should actively avoid drafting in 2025.

Just because they've done it before doesn't mean they'll do it again. Some of these guys saw declining efficiency metrics in 2024, and others just aren't worth their inflated cost for one reason or another. Avoid these four wide receivers in your 2025 fantasy football drafts.

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Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins

Do I think Cheetah could explode in any game? Absolutely! Am I willing to draft him as the 10th wide receiver off the board in 2025, absolutely not!

The 2024 season was the first time we saw any sort of opportunity and efficiency decline from the 31-year-old. It was the first time in his three-year Miami career that he fell below a 30% target share. And he wasn't even close to 30%. Hill finished the season with a 21.9% target share, which ranked 38th among wide receivers.

His 1.92 yards per route run (YPRR) in 2024 was also the lowest it's been since his rookie season. In his two previous seasons with the Dolphins, Tyreek averaged 3.63 YPRR. Tua Tagovailoa missing six games certainly affected his efficiency, but he also struggled with consistency even in games Tua was under center.

In 2023, Hill produced 20+ fantasy points in 63% of his games. Last season, in games with Tua, he hit that threshold in just 27% of his games. And what else happened in 2024 that could have affected Tyreek's output? Jonnu Smith, that's what happened.

Jonnu was a revelation in his eighth NFL season. In his first year with the Dolphins, he registered career highs in receptions (88), yards (884), and targets (111). His 2.38 YPRR was also a career-best. He put up these numbers while playing just 56% of the snaps with a 59% route participation rate.

Essentially, there's still room for Smith to grow in this offense. Jaylen Waddle also had a down year in 2024 and could bounce back in 2025. Remember, Waddle is just 26 years old and has battled some injuries in the past two seasons.

The ascension of Smith in this Dolphins' offense combined with Hill's age and declining efficiency metrics is cause for concern in 2025. Avoid the once sure-fire bet at wide receiver this upcoming season.

Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals

It's not that MHJ is bad, by any means. But for fantasy football purposes, his rookie year opportunity and efficiency metrics leave a lot to be desired.

The Cardinals deployed Harrison Jr. on the outside over 80% of the time. Per PlayerProfiler, he ranked 70th among wide receivers in slot snaps in 2024. As a result, his average depth of target (aDoT) was 13.5 yards, 17th among receivers.

His high aDoT was similar to guys like D.K. Metcalf, George Pickens, Rashod Bateman, Terry McLaurin, and Courtland Sutton. The easiest way for these archetypes to return value in fantasy football is by catching touchdowns. When that's not happening, their output leaves a lot to be desired.

For example, despite being a very good receiver, Pickens finished as just the WR36 and WR39 in 2023 and 2024, respectively. That's what happens when a high aDoT guy doesn't score a lot of touchdowns. Pickens has scored just eight total touchdowns on 209 targets in the last two seasons.

MHJ scored eight touchdowns last season. That was good for a 12.9% touchdown rate on 62 receptions. But we know touchdowns aren't sticky, meaning they're generally random year-over-year. For example, here's Sutton's touchdown rates over the last four seasons starting in 2021: 3.4%, 3.1%, 16.9%, 9.9%.

Harrison Jr.'s teammate, Trey McBride, had just a 3.6% touchdown rate on 111 receptions. If MHJ had that 3.6% touchdown rate as a rookie instead of McBride, he would have averaged just 9.4 fantasy points per game, good for WR54.

As mentioned earlier, Harrison Jr. also left a lot to be desired in terms of his efficiency. He averaged just 1.68 YPRR while ranking 107th among wideouts in target separation. He's fast, he's explosive, but he's currently overvalued as WR18 on Underdog.

Maybe his role changes in Year 2, but that's unlikely given Jonathan Gannon remains the head coach and Drew Petzing remains the offensive coordinator in Arizona for a third-straight season.

"Marvin Harrison Jr. can win like CeeDee Lamb, but isn't used like him." And that's where the problem lies.

Average Separation Scores on horizontally-breaking (out, dig, etc.) vs. vertically-breaking (go, post, etc.) routes.

+ Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., and Josh Downs (!) the biggest vertical threats

+ Marvin Harrison Jr. can win like CeeDee but isn't used like him pic.twitter.com/JzpWfii8NG

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) February 24, 2025

DJ Moore, Chicago Bears

As a first-time NFL head coach, Ben Johnson used his first two draft selections on pass-catchers. Michigan TE Colston Loveland was picked 10th overall, while Missouri WR Luther Burden III was taken with the 39th overall pick.

While Johnson is building an offensive juggernaut to mirror what he had as the offensive coordinator in Detroit, that spells more target competition for DJ Moore. Keenan Allen is gone, but Loveland and Burden join Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Moore as the pass-catchers in Chicago.

That's a crowded room with a lot of talent. Moore is one of those talented guys, but he regressed quite a bit in 2024. His 1.52 YPRR and 22% target rate were both career lows. His aDoT also dropped to a career-low 7.5 yards.

And last season, his target competition was an aging Allen, a rookie in Odunze, and Kmet. This season, it's an ascending Odunze, Kmet, and 10th overall pick that Ben Johnson absolutely loves in Colston Loveland (no pun intended).

Ben Johnson has been the most Fantasy friendly offensive designer of this decade.

He had this to say after picking TE Colston Loveland 10th overall:

“First pick as a head coach… you’re exactly what we’re looking for, man! Match made in heaven”

📈📈📈📈📈📈📈 https://t.co/lJ5N8UHfq0 pic.twitter.com/9bn66kg2I0

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) April 25, 2025

Can Johnson elevate Williams? That remains to be seen. It wasn't pretty at times in his rookie season. However, if Williams and the offense take a step forward, the pass-catchers would also naturally get a boost. The problem for Moore, though, is that he showed signs of decline last season and isn't one of Johnson's guys.

Was the efficiency drop-off in 2024 a product of an inept offense, or was it a product of catching passes from Williams behind an atrocious offensive line? Either way, Ben Johnson drafted two of his guys as a first-time head coach to surround Caleb with as much offensive firepower as possible.

While I do think Ben Johnson elevates the Bears' offense, I won't be paying a premium (WR16 ADP) to find out what that means for Moore with all of the other weapons Williams will have at his disposal in 2025.

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr has a mystery shoulder injury, and the Saints selected Louisville QB Tyler Shough in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft. They'll enter the season with an injured Carr, a rookie, and a second-year man in Rattler, who struggled as a rookie.

That doesn't bode well for Chris Olave, especially when you consider Rashid Shaheed outplayed him in 2024. Shaheed bested Olave in target share (24.6% vs. 19%), target rate (25.3% vs. 24.6%), and route win rate (55.3% vs. 49.7%), per PlayerProfiler.

Shaheed was incredible before suffering a meniscus injury in October last season. His meteoric rise led to some sizable opportunity decline for Olave. Olave's target share dropped from 25% in 2023 to just 19% in 2024. His YPRR was still good (2.23), but Shaheed was right there with him in that metric (2.17).

If Olave and Shaheed were priced similarly, this might be a different conversation. But they're not. Olave is currently the WR33 on Underdog, while Shaheed is going off the board as WR55. So long as both guys are healthy, Shaheed feels like the smash buy at his ADP.

Olave, on the other hand, should be avoided in 2025, given his "demotion" to WR2 on the team. The Saints also brought in sure-handed veteran Brandin Cooks this offseason. While he's not likely to earn more targets than Olave or Shaheed, he could be just enough of a thorn in Olave's side to suppress his upside.

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