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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on November 28, 2023.
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After a weird week of scheduling, it looks like the NHL is back on track with a ten-game slate for us on a Tuesday night. There are a lot of premium teams on the slate, including Toronto, Edmonton, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, and Vegas. Some of these teams are in good spots, while others look to be fades for us. There aren’t a lot of value slates that are popping yet, but morning skate and any line changes could open some up. Minnesota has had a coaching change and lines could get shuffled. They are in a good spot, so it’s definitely a situation worth watching.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options; four of which cost $20 or less to enter and have a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $9 entry tournament with a $10,000 first prize and a $33 entry, 106-person GPP with $1,000 for first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
New Jersey Devils (NJ2 - Jesper Bratt, Ondrej Palat, Nico Hischier)
Holy guacamole has this line played well together this year - wow! As a trio, they have played 43 minutes together and have an xGF/60 (expected goals per 60 minutes) of 4.96. That’s a monster number, and it just so happens that the Devils have one of the strongest matchups on the slate. The Islanders have allowed 1.56 fewer goals than expected per 60 minutes on the road in five-on-five play. If they were to play to their expectations, they’d give up 3.17 goals per 60 minutes. That would be the second-highest number on the slate behind only the Chicago Blackhawks. Their 14.63 high-danger chances are also the second-highest number on the slate behind Chicago. They are just not a great defensive team on the road.
This line should be matched up against the Dobson/Mayfield defensive pairing, which is the most generous pairing on the Islanders. So what we have here is a line that is playing great going up against a defense that’s due for major regression, and we get them at a reasonable price.
Tampa Bay Lightning (TB1 - Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point)
Tampa Bay could very well have the best line in hockey, and on top of that they are white hot at the moment. Over the last ten games, this trio is averaging two goals and three assists per game, a score of well over 50 DraftKings points per outing. For the season, this trio has an xGF/60 of 3.48 in over 120 minutes of play. That’s a very big number for that many minutes of ice time.
Tonight this line is projected to spend the majority of their time on the ice with either Josh Brown or Troy Stecher, both of whom have been horrendous on defense this year. Arizona is due for a little bit of positive regression defensively, but even if they play as the data suggests, they’d still be giving up nearly three goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five play at home; a terrible number. A lot of this has to do with the 12.8 high-danger chances they are allowing per game. Tampa’s top line just so happens to be strongest right in front of the net; a bad omen for the Coyotes.
Vancouver Canucks (VAN1 - Elias Pettersson, Ilya Mikheyev, Andrei Kuzmenko, Quinn Hughes)
John Gibson has been playing out of his mind in net for the Ducks. He’s saving a high percentage of unblocked shots and is allowing 0.21 fewer goals than expected, but advanced data suggests that his strong play isn’t sustainable. The Ducks allow a large number of high-danger chances per game, and they have one of the most generous defensive pairings in the league in Mintyukov/Lyubushkin.
Whispers have started to get louder about Quinn Hughes possibly being the best player in the NHL, and it’s a hard point to argue against. He’s averaging 16.5 DraftKings points per game on the strength of more than an assist and over four SABS (shots and blocked shots) per game. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in 12 of his last 16 games, topping 20 points five times. Meanwhile, the Canucks top line has an xGF/60 of 3.10 and they average nearly five more fantasy points per game at home. Ilya Mikheyev and Andrei Kuzmenko are both priced under $5,000, making it easier to afford Elias Pettersson and Hughes.
Others in consideration: FLA2, MIN1, DAL, EDM1
Quinn Hughes is disgusting pic.twitter.com/eI5m335pdt
— Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn) November 21, 2023
Top Value Stack of the Night
Seattle Kraken (SEA1 - Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers, James McCann)
The only team on the slate that may have a better matchup than the Devils is the Seattle Kraken. They are going up against the Chicago Blackhawks, who have allowed 16.04 high-danger chances per game, which is the highest number on the slate by almost a full chance per game. As poorly as Chicago has played (2.83 goals allowed per 60), they could still do worse as they are allowing over one-third of a goal fewer per 60 minutes than expected. Petr Mrazek has slowed down after a hot start to the year, and he’s now allowed three or more goals in eight of ten starts on the season.
Meanwhile, the Kraken are due for positive regression. They are scoring nearly half a goal per 60 minutes less on the road than expected. The trio of Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers, and James McCann have an above-average xGF/60 of 2.78. They are a rare group in that all three of them play better on the road than at home, scoring 58% more points in road games. This is a prime spot for them to have a ceiling game at a value price point.
Top Goalies to Target
Logan Thompson (Vegas Golden Knights)
It’s not often that we look to use a goalie against the Edmonton Oilers, but Logan Thompson has been playing so well and tonight he’s priced so cheaply at just $7,500. The Oilers are averaging 33.2 shots on goal per game, which is one of the highest numbers on the slate. That should give Thompson the kind of volume that’s needed to put up a big score. He’s starting his seventh road game this year, so playing away from The Fortress won’t phase him, and he’s been good in those starts with an average of 15.4 DraftKings points per game.
On the season, few goalies are playing as well as Thompson. He’s allowing only 2.32 goals per game, which is over half a goal per game less than expected. His save percentage on unblocked shots is ten points higher than expected. He’s allowed more than three goals only once all year. As long as Vegas can stay out of the penalty box they will put Thompson in a spot to put up a big score. He’s more of a GPP play because of how strong of an offense the Oilers are, but at his price point he’s not a total fade in cash games if you need to save money.
Others in consideration (GPP): Tristan Jarry, Carter Hart, Anthony Stolarz, John Gibson, Connor Ingram
Others in consideration (Cash): Thatcher Demko, Jake Oettinger
