RADIO
The NFL schedule impacts each team in drastic ways. The Eagles opened with the Browns and Bears at home, then destroyed Pittsburgh. What if the schedule was turned around and the Eagles opened with the Steelers? The Steelers would have been a favorite and my guess is they would have won. If the Eagles lost the first one, then who knows what their confidence level would have been for the next couple games. Some teams catch opponents at a good time, while other teams don’t. The Eagles have been one of the lucky ones. Not saying the Eagles are not very good, but their schedule is a big part to it.
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Survivor League Strategy
1. Avoid divisional bouts
Last season in Week 2, the Saints were a sure thing lock of the year against the Buccaneers in New Orleans. Tampa Bay ended up winning, knocking many people out of their survivor contests. Also last year, the Packers were heavy favorites against the 1-7 Lions in Lambeau and proceeded to lose.
2. Avoid taking a road team
I would rather put my money on a home team with a home field advantage. The rule doesn't apply to a team playing in San Diego. The road teams fans fill up a majority of Qualcomm Stadium, making it a de facto home game for the road team.
3. Play the Matchups
I will be using the lines from sportsbook.ag for the season.
Before making any picks, look at each point spread. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us, use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.
Top Survivor Picks for Week 5
Patriots -11 @Browns
You can’t make this line high enough. Bill Belichick’s record after a loss is 39-6. And Tom Brady is back. Maybe this won’t be a blowout as many expect, but the Patriots will definitely win.
@Steelers -7 vs. Jets
The Steelers are catching the Jets at the perfect time. The Jets are falling apart. If they lose, they’ll fall to 1-4 with the Cardinals and Ravens on deck. The Jets are the worst team in DVOA (Defense- adjusted Value Over Average), a stat that takes into account the current situation of the game, downs, distance, and score. Pittsburgh is fifth. Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown nine interceptions the past two games. He’s reverted to his old self and will probably lead the league in interceptions if he doesn’t get benched.
The Jets pass defense has allowed 295 yards a game. Unless Todd Haley calls a conservative game plan, Ben Roethlisberger should easily throw for 300 yards and a couple touchdowns.
Cameron Heyward had an outstanding game last week, three sacks and a deflection leading to a pick. Heyward could cause havoc against the 19th ranked offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus.
Additionally, as seen on Sunday Night Football, Le’Veon Bell brings a whole new dimension to the Steelers offense, only to create more problems for the Jets defense.
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid for Week 5
@Raiders -3.5 vs. Chargers
A divisional game with the possibility of a Raiders letdown. The one time they were more than three point favorites this season was against the Falcons in Week 2. They lost. The Raiders are a very good team, but I’m worried they let the Chargers hang around too long. Maybe that isn’t the worst thing. The Chargers have blown leads in three games this season.
@Rams -2 vs. Bills
The second game in the disastrous LA Coliseum. I have no clue what to make of either of these teams. I still don't believe in the Rams. Every year they beat the Cardinals and Seahawks, but how can anyone trust Case Keenum? Both of these teams are coming in on winning streaks. This should be a low scoring game. A field goal will be the difference.
