NFL Free Agency Preview - Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Edition

With the 2023 fantasy football season completed, all eyes shift to NFL free agency, which opens in March. Rob identifies the biggest wide receiver free agents, their best fantasy football fits, and their most likely destination.

No position this year can rival the talent available in free agency as the running back group, but the receivers set to hit free agency is a really strong group as well. Teams looking to upgrade their offensive playmakers will have plenty of options to choose from these two groups. If you’ve missed the start of this series, you can catch up on the quarterback and running back previews.

We’ll be focusing on nine receivers set to reach free agency in March. The franchise tag still looms and it’s possible one of these potential free agents gets tagged and never reaches the open market. The franchise tag deadline isn’t until the end of February.

This group of free agent receivers includes outside threats, slot receivers, and a wide range of talent. There are a few legit No. 1 receivers available, some solid No. 2s, and a good group of complementary No. 3 options. It’s a strong group and there is no shortage of teams that need receiver help.

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Primary Suitors

Chicago Bears

The Bears have just under $47 million in cap space. Darnell Mooney is a free agent. There’s virtually no trustworthy No. 2 or No. 3 receiver on the roster behind D.J. Moore. The team is in a position to draft one of the top prospects, but could also look to free agency. They have the No. 1 and No. 9 overall picks.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have around $14 million in cap space but have a few bigger contracts they could restructure to get more space. Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Nelson Agholor are their top-three receivers. Both spots behind Flowers could be upgraded. They hold the No. 30 pick in this year’s draft.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have just under $60 million in cap space. However, they have plenty of free agents they could be looking to re-sign. Among those include Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, their No. 2 and No. 3 receivers behind Ja'Marr Chase. They could opt to let both go and add a receiver at No. 18 in this year’s draft.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are around $51 million over the cap. Gabriel Davis is a free agent, which leaves Stefon Diggs and Khalil Shakir as their best two receivers right now. The team has been desperate for a dependable option opposite Diggs for years. The Bills have a late first-round pick, No. 28.

New England Patriots

The Patriots have $66 million in cash and have the No. 3 overall and No. 34 pick in this year’s draft. Their best receivers are DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, and Demario Douglas. Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki are also free agents. This entire pass-catching group needs a complete overhaul.

New York Jets

The Jets have just under $5 million in cap space. Their No. 2 receiver is Allen Lazard, but he found himself as a healthy scratch multiple times last season. They have no real dependable or trustworthy option currently on the roster to start opposite Garrett Wilson. They have the No. 10 overall pick, but that will most likely be an offensive lineman. Their second-rounder is owed to the Packers.

New York Giants

The Giants have just under $22 million in cap space. They have the No. 6 and No. 39 overall picks to attack their receiver position. Their best receivers on the roster are Darius Slayton, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Jalin Hyatt.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have just over $28 million in cap space, but they owe their first-round pick (No. 1 overall) to the Bears. They have picks No. 33 and No. 65 in this year’s draft. Their best receivers are Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, and D.J. Chark Jr.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have just under $29 million in cap space. They hold the No. 8 and No. 43 overall picks. Their best and only receiver behind Drake London -- if we don’t count Kyle Pitts -- is Josh Ali.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have just over $37 million in cap space. They have Trey Palmer, Chris Godwin, and Russell Gage under contract. They have the No. 26 and No. 57 picks in this year’s draft. Mike Evans is a free agent. They’ll likely do their best to re-sign him, but if they lose him, they could become a major player in the receiver market.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans have just over $68 million in cap space. They could cut DeAndre Hopkins and save another $10 million more. Given their current rebuilding status, this could most certainly happen. Other receivers on the roster include Treylon Burks and Kyle Philips. They have the No. 7 and No. 38 overall picks in this year’s draft.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have over $11 million in cap space. By cutting Cam Robinson, they’d save $17 million more. They have Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Parker Washington under contract. The front office has indicated they want to re-sign free agent Calvin Ridley. If they can’t, the Jaguars will likely look for reinforcements at receiver in the free agency or the draft.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have $24 million in cap space. They can restructure Patrick Mahomes’ contract to create a lot more space. However, they have free agents Chris Jones and L'Jarius Sneed, who will be looking to be made the highest paid players at their positions. Creed Humphrey is also in the last year of his rookie deal and will likely reset the center market. That’s three monster contracts they need to deal with. They may not have as much cap space as it appears on the surface. They have Marquez Valdes-Scantling on the roster, but cutting him saves $12 million, a move they’ll likely do. That would leave them with Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney. They’ll have the No. 31 or No. 32 pick in this year’s draft.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have just over $36 million in cap space. They hold the No. 4, No. 27, and No. 35 overall picks in this year’s draft. Marquise Brown is a free agent, which leaves them with just Michael Wilson and Rondale Moore as their primary receivers.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Evans is coming off one of the best seasons in his career. He had 136 targets, which was the fourth-highest total in his career, 79 receptions (third-highest of his career), 1,255 yards (third-highest), and 13 touchdowns (second-highest). Most NFL fans and fantasy managers were lukewarm at best on the Tampa Bay offense when they went from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield, but Mayfield and Evans responded in big ways.

Now, Evans enters free agency fresh off his best season since 2018. That’s evident from the table above where he set high marks in target share, target rate, and yards per route run. Tampa Bay and Evans were in contract negotiations throughout the season, but ultimately could not agree on a price. Considering how well Evans played and Mayfield’s preference for him over Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay may be more reluctant to meet Evans’ asking price. However, Evans’ asking price may have also gone up.

Since the end of the season, their offensive coordinator, Dave Canales, has accepted the head-coaching job in Carolina. Canales brought over Brad Idzik, Tampa’s receiver coach from 2023, and made him the offensive coordinator in Charlotte. Carolina has a massive need at receiver. Could these two connections be enough for Evans to leave Tampa Bay?

Considering his connection and the solid play from Mayfield, his best fantasy option is likely to stay in Tampa Bay. However, Canales in his first year as Carolina’s head coach (with Bryce Young fresh off a very disappointing rookie season) could be desperate to add a legitimate receiver to his team. They could be willing to overpay Evans to sign with the Panthers. These seem to be his most likely options.

If he’s in Tampa again, he should be viewed as a mid to high-end WR2. If he’s in Carolina, Evans' fantasy value would decrease. Young will be learning a new offense and was quite terrible in his first season. Even if he improves, there’s a big gap between what Young did last year to being average, much less good.

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts

If there’s any receiver who is likely to get the franchise tag, it’s Pittman. The chances of him playing anywhere but Indianapolis seem slim to none. The Colts need Pittman back to be their No. 1 receiver, but they also need him back to help Anthony Richardson’s development. The Colts will have playoff aspirations in 2024 and Pittman will be a big part of that plan. The Colts have just under $60 million in cap space, so extending or franchising Pittman are both very doable.

As you can see from the table above, Pittman set career highs in target share, target rate, targets per game, receptions per game, yards per game, and half-PPR PPG average. Most may not view him as a true No. 1 receiver, but he most certainly is. His game is very similar to that of Keenan Allen or in his prime, Michael Thomas. He’s not a downfield threat, evidenced by his yards per target average, but he gets open routinely and draws a high number of targets.

Given Indy’s cap situation, their roster need, and Pittman’s talent level, it seems like a virtual guarantee that he’ll be back in Indianapolis. Working off that assumption, Pittman should be valued as a back-end WR1 who could be on the verge of another mini-breakout if Richardson can provide more upside to the team’s passing attack.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

Higgins is a tough player to evaluate. Some view him as a No. 1 option. Others see him as a good No. 2. The reality is Higgins’ target share, target rate, targets per game, receptions per game, yards per route, yards per route run, yards per target, and half-PPR PPG average have decreased every year since 2021. Some of that can be attributed to injuries for Higgins and quarterback Joe Burrow. Still, not a good look. You can see in the table below how Higgins' statistics have decreased in recent seasons.

Cincinnati has stated they want Higgins back in 2024. They have $59 million in cap space, but D.J. Reader is a free agent and Chase is in his final year. Burrow’s cap hit is also just $30 million in 2024 before his new deal really kicks in, jumping to $46 million in 2025 and $48 million in 2026. They’ll try to re-sign Higgins, but it’ll need to make sense with their books. Higgins is another candidate for the franchise tag at $20.7 million.

If he reaches free agency, he could be the most sought-after receiver on the market. Evans will be 31 before the start of the 2024 season and as previously mentioned, Pittman is highly unlikely to reach the open market. Higgins will be just 25 for the duration of the 2024 season. He’d have no shortage of suitors.

The Bears, Patriots, Giants, Panthers, Titans, Chiefs, Falcons, and Cardinals all have legit holes at either their No. 1 or No. 2 receiver spots and have plenty of cash or avenues to cash to make Higgins a substantial offer. No other receiver’s free agency journey is as interesting as Higgins'. Depending on where he ends up, he could find himself ranked as a high-end WR2 or a high-end WR3. He’ll most likely settle in as a mid-to-back-end WR2.

Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals

Brown is another tough evaluation. As a member of the Ravens in 2021, they lost J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards and were forced to pass the ball way more than they wanted. This led to a career year in targets, receptions, and yards. It’s his only season going over 1,000 yards. He was traded to Arizona the following year to tag team with DeAndre Hopkins, but due to Hopkins’ suspension and Brown's injury, their playing time didn’t overlap all that much. This past season, Hopkins was in Tennessee and Brown was the No. 1 in Arizona; however, this time Kyler Murray missed nine games due to his ACL recovery.

It’s been a tough two-year stretch for Brown due to his own injuries and the injury to Murray, as you can see from the table above. He’s in a similar situation as Higgins. His target share, target rate, targets per game, receptions per game, yards per game, yards per route run, yards per target, and half-PPR PPG average have decreased every season since 2021. That said, he has a four-year stretch of posting a target share north of 22.5%.

He’s not a true No. 1 receiver and he’s best suited as a team’s No. 2, benefiting from more one-on-ones. In that sense, the Falcons could be a good fit for him, assuming they can identify a quarterback. The new offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, has used 11-personnel at a high rate and Brown would garner far less attention than Drake London.

Other teams that would be a good fit for Brown where he would easily settle in as the team’s No. 2 target would be the Bears (behind Moore), Kansas City (behind Rice/Kelce), Bills (behind Diggs), Jets (behind Wilson), and the Bengals (behind Chase if they let Higgins walk).

Brown is unlikely to command a huge salary after two semi-disappointing seasons, which could make him an affordable option for teams like the Bills, Jets, and Chiefs. If he were to sign with the Bills, Jets, or Chiefs, Brown would likely be viewed as a mid-WR3, but he’d be a solid sleeper pick. In almost any other situation, he’s likely to be ranked as a WR4.

Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars

Ridley came into 2023 with sky-high expectations. The last time we saw him in Atlanta back in 2021, albeit for just five games, he was dominating the target share and averaging 10 targets per game. He was a top-five fantasy receiver in 2020. The combination of him with Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson sent his value soaring. He failed to meet those expectations, but that doesn’t mean he was bad.

In the table above, you can certainly see some noticeable differences from 2023 and 2020-2021, specifically in target share, target rate, and targets per game. However, he still averaged eight targets per game, had a healthy 22.6% target share, and finished with 1,000+ yards in his first season back on a new team. That’s not too shabby!

Interestingly enough, if the Jaguars re-sign Ridley, they’ll have to give the Falcons their 2024 second-round pick as part of their trade with Atlanta. If they do not extend him, Jacksonville only gives Atlanta their third-round pick. That’s not nothing, especially since the Jaguars have a mid-second-rounder, No. 48 overall. The front office has still publicly stated they have every intention of trying to re-sign Ridley.

Ridley isn’t a No. 1 receiver. He needs a running mate and he’ll turn 30 during the 2024 season. Considering that, a return to the Jaguars makes a lot of sense. He’s familiar with their offense and Lawrence. There’s also Christian Kirk, who can help take pressure off him. Other appealing situations could include the Bears, Ravens, Bengals (sans Higgins), Bills, Chiefs, Cardinals (assuming they draft Marvin Harrison Jr.), Jets, Falcons, and Buccaneers (sans Evans).

Seeing as he’s on the verge of turning 30 and this is likely his only chance at a big contract, teams like the Patriots or Panthers could potentially overpay him in order to make Ridley their No. 1 receiver. Given the draft day implications on where Ridley signs, it makes him one of the more interesting players to watch in March. Regardless of where he signs, he’s likely to find himself somewhere in the WR3 range.

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears

Mooney had a very promising first two years in the NFL. Despite being a fifth-round pick and dealing with subpar quarterback play, he still finished with 238 targets, 142 receptions, 1,686 yards, and eight touchdowns in his first two seasons. In his second season, 2021, Mooney posted a 26.7% target share and finished with 140 targets. Since then, however, it’s been all downhill.

He missed five games in 2022 and Justin Fields struggled significantly to throw the ball in his third season. This past year, the team added DJ Moore and Mooney fell to third on the team’s target hierarchy behind Moore and Cole Kmet. A once promising career has quickly changed course. Mooney now finds himself as a free agent coming off the worst season of his career. From the table below, you can see that his target share, target rate, targets per game, receptions per game, yards per game, and half-PPR PPG average have decreased every year since 2021.

Mooney won’t have a robust market and because he’ll be much cheaper than the rest of the receivers we’ve previously covered, his market could include almost any team. He’s likely best treated as a No. 3 target option. He won’t be ranked as anything more than a WR6 for fantasy in the best of circumstances. He’ll most likely be valued as a WR8 going into 2024.

Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills

Davis’ fantasy discourse has been a wild one to follow. His high rate of touchdowns, the fact that Josh Allen has been his quarterback, and a crazy four-touchdown playoff game has elevated his stock far greater than it should have ever been. Over the past three seasons, he has had exactly one season with a target share north of 15%. In four seasons, he has never had a year with 50 or more receptions or 100 targets. He has one season with more than 750 yards.

As you can see from the table above, Davis is coming off his worst season in terms of target rate and yards per route run. Everything else is, more or less, the same. He is who he is. He’s an inconsistent deep threat in the same tier as Marquez Valdes-Scantling of the Chiefs.

Any team that signs him will be looking for speed and someone who can offer a vertical element to their passing attack. For fantasy purposes, he can essentially be ignored. Even in the best of circumstances in Buffalo with Josh Allen, running a ton of routes, and with little target competition behind Diggs, Davis was unable to muster a 10.0 half-PPR PPG average.

Much like Mooney, Davis is unlikely to have a robust market. However, teams are constantly enamored with size and the deep ball, so Davis could find more traction than Mooney. However, due to the cheaper contract he’ll command, his landing spot could be almost anywhere. Davis shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a WR8 for fantasy.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals

Boyd had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons on his resume back in 2018 and 2019. Since then, the Bengals have drafted Chase and Higgins, which has drastically impacted Boyd’s target volume and production. Boyd has operated as a full-time slot receiver for the past few years and at this stage of his career, that’s what he’s best at.

Boyd isn’t a bad player. He has had two seasons in the last three years with a target share north of 16.5% and a target rate of 18% or higher. Over the past three seasons, he’s also essentially averaged five targets per game as you can from the table below.

Teams who could be looking for a dependable No. 3 target or slot receiver without breaking the bank will likely be interested in Boyd. Atlanta could be an interesting fit for Boyd. They desperately need receivers and Boyd could operate as a solid No. 3 option behind London and Pitts. Arizona is another interesting spot where he’d be the No. 3 option behind Harrison Jr. (most likely) and Trey McBride.

Even in those situations, Boyd shouldn’t be valued as anything more than a WR7. He’s still a solid player who is likely to have more real-life football value than fantasy value. There’s little chance he’ll be returning to Cincinnati.

Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders

Samuel gets slept on a bit, but he’s a good football player. He only played five games in 2021, so you can see his per-game averages from the 2020 season in the table below. He’s been an under-the-radar effective player over the past three seasons (using 2020 as opposed to 2021 where he missed the vast majority of the season).

He has three straight seasons with a target share higher than 16%, a target rate higher than 19%, and a target per game average over five. He’s a solid No. 3 option in a passing attack and can be utilized in a variety of different ways. He has two seasons with 35 or more rushing attempts and 185 or more rushing yards. He’s scored a rushing touchdown in five out of his seven seasons. He’ll turn 28 years old in August, but can still produce as a team’s No. 3 receiver.

Due to his versatility, Samuel could have a larger market than Boyd, Mooney, and Davis. He can operate out of the slot or as a team’s flanker. His ability to work outside a bit more than Boyd offers teams more flexibility with their personnel groupings. Regardless, Samuel isn’t going to garner a significant contract this offseason. Like Boyd, Samuel won’t be valued as anything higher than a WR7.

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