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Doug's best MLB player prop bets for today (4/28/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Juan Soto, Cal Raleigh, and more!
Tonight should be a lot of fun, as the 15-game slate features some of the worst pitchers of 2026 if we judge by SLG allowed, Hard% allowed, and home runs allowed. You get no bonus points for taking big risks, so I’m attacking the low-hanging fruit to try to turn a nice profit.
That’s not to say that we can’t attack these gas cans with some guys who have longer odds, but there’s no point in getting too cute. Great American Ballpark? Why, yes, I think I’ll take some shots there. Zack Littell and his 11 home runs allowed through five starts? Sure, that sounds like a good spot to take. See, it doesn’t have to be that hard when the numbers are in your favor.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (4/28/2026)
Nathaniel Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+435 DraftKings)
Heading into Tuesday’s slate of games, no hitter on the Reds is hotter than Nathaniel Lowe. Over his prior three games, Lowe has blasted four home runs, leading the team with a .417 ISO and .722 SLG against right-handed pitching this season.
NATHANIEL LOWE
WALK-OFF HOME RUN 🤯 pic.twitter.com/EXfCfsvGO2
— MLB (@MLB) April 25, 2026
Opposing Lowe and the Reds is Tomoyuki Sugano, who has allowed a .469 SLG and 41% Hard% against left-handed bats over the past two seasons. Sugano has allowed at least one home run in four of his five starts this season, posting a 1.7 HR/9 rate. His 17% home run to fly ball rate in 2026 is considered high by major league standards.
That number won’t get aided playing away from Coors, as the Great American Ballpark has the second-highest park factor for home runs over the past two seasons behind only Dodger Stadium. Colorado’s bullpen has allowed the fourth-most home runs this season, so even if the Reds chase Sugano early, Lowe should still be in a good spot to go long.
Juan Soto OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 Bet365)
The New York Mets have been wildly disappointing this season, but maybe their fortunes can turn around against arguably the worst pitcher in the major leagues in 2026, Zack Littell. Littell has allowed 11 home runs through five starts, a ridiculously high 3.96 HR/9. His 25% home run to fly ball rate is so bad, and he’s allowed an average of eight fly balls per game.
He’s been particularly bad against lefty bats, allowing a .810 SLG and 47% Hard% over. Littell has given up at least two home runs in all but one of his four starts this season, giving the Mets some hope for life in this game.
There hasn’t been anyone in New York who really stands out offensively this season, but Juan Soto was easily their best left-handed bat in 2025. Soto led the team with a .568 SLG and .280 ISO against right-handed pitching last season, blasting 32 home runs. He’s only hit one homer so far this season, but is seeing the ball well with five walks over his past four games, and could be ready to break out.
