NFL Free Agency Preview - Fantasy Football Running Back Edition

With the 2023 Fantasy Football Season completed, all eyes shift to 2024 NFL free agency, which opens in March. Rob identifies the biggest RB free agents, their best fantasy football fits, and their most likely destination.

This is an absolutely loaded group of free agent running backs. There are at least three workhorse backs available, two of which are in their prime. There are two other backs who, based on their 2023 seasons, could classify as workhorse backs and are also in their prime. Where these players decide to sign is going to have a big impact across the league and in fantasy football leagues.

We’ll be focusing on nine free agent running backs who are likely to receive the most interest on the open market once it opens in March. Some of these players are true No. 1 running backs with a three-down skillset and others are best used in a committee backfield. However, with most teams shifting to some kind of committee, these players could yet be fantasy-relevant options for 2024.

We covered the free agent group of quarterbacks yesterday, which you can read here. Unfortunately, the quarterback position looks fairly dry in terms of free agent options. Luckily, this group of runners more than makes up for it. Let’s get started and be sure to look for the receiver and tight end editions, which will be out in the next few days.

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Primary Suitors

Throughout this article, we’ll be talking about these primary eight teams who will likely be the most interested in the free agent running back market. Those eight teams include the Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys (assuming Tony Pollard isn’t re-signed), Philadelphia Eagles (assuming D’Andre Swift isn’t re-signed), Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, and the Los Angeles Chargers. All of these teams have a need at running back. All of them outside of maybe the Bears and Chargers have a legitimate shot at the playoffs and potentially a Super Bowl. The Panthers, Giants, and Raiders could also have interest, but all three teams are somewhat in rebuilding mode and may be less inclined to spend big money on a running back in free agency.

One thing to remember is that the 2024 NFL Draft class for running backs looks barren. It’s a virtual guarantee no running back will be going in the first round and we may only see one in the second round, as well. Drafting a ready-to-play replacement isn’t as good of an option as it has been in recent years, so expect these free agent running backs to get plenty of attention for that reason. These suitors will be mentioned throughout the article as they all have an obvious hole at running back and most of them are going to view themselves as competitors for 2024, so we’ll take a second to look at each team’s cap situation.

Baltimore Ravens

They are estimated to have around $14 million in cap space. They can easily restructure the contracts of Lamar Jackson, Ronnie Stanley, and Marlon Humphrey to create more space. Right now, their best running backs under contract are Gus Edwards and Justice Hill. Running back might be one of Baltimore’s greatest offseason needs.

Chicago Bears

They have just under $47 million in cap space for 2024. That is plenty of money to sign the best running back to a long-term deal. Regardless if they decide to keep Justin Fields or draft Caleb Williams, a strong running game will be important for both quarterbacks’ success. Their best running backs under contract are Travis Homer, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson. They could decide to move forward again with a combination of Herbert and Johnson, but adding a legit star to this backfield is a very real possibility.

Dallas Cowboys

They are almost $20 million over the cap. However, Dak Prescott currently has a $60 million cap hit and will likely be extended. That move will save the team a significant amount of money. Jerry Jones has also mentioned they will be “all-in” for 2024, so don’t be surprised if they figure out a way to make a splash. If they believe Derrick Henry or Saquan Barkley is the missing piece, teams can always move money around. The Cowboys making a huge splash at running back seems a bit unlikely due to their financial situation and the way their Ezekiel Elliott contract turned out, but they have a huge hole at the position. Their best running backs under contract are Malik Davis and Deuce Vaughn.

Philadelphia Eagles

They will have just over $20 million in cap space. D'Andre Swift, Boston Scott, and Rashaad Penny are all free agents. That leaves just Kenneth Gainwell under contract. Philadelphia’s running game really struggled in 2023, so don’t be surprised if they prioritize the position this offseason, either through free agency or in the draft. The team could opt to re-sign Swift if they don’t want to spend big money, but they have Super Bowl aspirations, and making a huge splash at running back shouldn’t be ruled out.

Miami Dolphins

They are estimated to be $52 million over the cap, so signing a big-name running back seems very unlikely. They’ll resign Tua Tagovailoa, which will save some cap this year. They can also restructure Tyreek Hill, Jalen Ramsey, Bradley Chubb, and Xavien Howard. They have all three of their primary running backs under contract from last season. That includes Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane, and Jeff Wilson Jr. It’s possible Miami rolls with these three again, but they were rumored to be interested in Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor when their names were mentioned in trade talks. Miami is clearly all-in and willing to push salary out to future years for a chance at a Super Bowl. Could that include a running back? I wouldn’t think so, but given their interest in Jacobs and Taylor, we can’t entirely rule them out.

Houston Texans

Houston has just under $58 million in cap space and is coming off a surprising divisional-round appearance with C.J. Stroud as a rookie. Devin Singletary is a free agent and Dameon Pierce struggled immensely in his second season. This is one of the best landing spots since this offense will score plenty of points. They have an obvious need in their backfield and are a win-now club.

Los Angeles Chargers

In Jim Harbaugh’s last 17 years as a head coach, his teams have attempted more passes than runs just twice. One of those occurred in the 2020 shortened season. Even when he had Andrew Luck at Stanford, they still ran the ball a lot. In 2009, 63% of their plays were rushes and in 2010, 59% were rushes. Don’t expect the Chargers to run more than they throw it. Not in the NFL and not with Justin Herbert, but the running game is going to get a massive facelift in Los Angeles. That could include a big-time free agent acquisition. Harbaugh came to the NFL to win a Super Bowl, so don’t expect a rebuild here. They’ll be looking to reload. The Chargers are $45 million over the cap, but they can cut Khalil Mack and Mike Williams and get that number down to just $2 million. Corey Linsley is expected to retire and then they would be in the green. They can restructure Joey Bosa and Keenan Allen to create more room. They can create enough space to get involved with any running back if they want to. I wouldn’t be surprised if Harbaugh wants to.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

The fantasy football community might be turned off by Henry due to his age and disappointing 2023 season. He turned 30 in January, a typical red flag for running backs. He’s also coming off his worst statistical season, in some aspects, since 2018. Understandably, that can create some hesitation for fantasy managers. However, I don’t expect the same hesitation from NFL teams. Henry will be one of the most sought-after running backs on the open market this season.

While fantasy managers will look at his PPG average and his decrease in yardage and draw their own conclusions, NFL teams are more likely to add context to those numbers. For example, Tennessee benched Ryan Tannehill mid-season for a second-round, developmental prospect in Will Levis. Their offense finished 27th in points, 28th in yards, 27th in yards per play, and 26th in points per drive. Not only that but according to PFF, the Titans finished with the worst offensive line in the league.

Given the offensive line struggles, it’s not surprising to see Henry’s yard-per-carry average dip. However, Henry remained equally as efficient in yards after contact per attempt as he was in 2022 and 2021. His attempts and his rushing yardage dipped, but that can be attributed to a poor team that had very few opportunities to play with the lead.

There are a number of appealing and common-sense fits for Henry. Those include the Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys (assuming Tony Pollard isn’t re-signed), Philadelphia Eagles (assuming D’Andre Swift isn’t re-signed), Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, and the Los Angeles Chargers. All of these teams have a need at running back. All of them, outside of maybe the Bears and Chargers, give Henry a legitimate shot at the playoffs and potentially a Super Bowl.

Any of these teams would make Henry a formidable fantasy force. Assuming he ends up in one of these locations, he should once again be valued as a top-10 fantasy football asset. Henry proved last season that he can still carry the ball a ton of times, handling over 18 touches per game. There aren’t many running backs who can do that anymore. If he finds himself on a winning team, don’t be surprised if Henry has a resurgent season. Virtually anywhere he signs, as long as it’s not back in Tennessee, will be a massive situational upgrade.

Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders

Jacobs isn’t often recognized as one of the best backs in the NFL, but he sure has been one of the most consistent. He has five straight seasons with 260 or more touches and 1,100 or more scrimmage yards. Much like Henry, this past year was in stark contrast to his previous two seasons. In fact, one could easily argue this was the worst year of Jacobs’ career. Not all of that should be attributed to him.

The Raiders had two different head coaches and three different starting quarterbacks. Their offense finished 23rd in points, 27th in yards, 26th in yards per play, and 25th in points per drive. As bad as the offense was, it wasn’t because of the offensive line. PFF ranked Las Vegas’ hog mollies as the 10th best unit of 2023. This makes his 3.46 yards per carry average and his 1.4 yards after contact per attempt average slightly concerning. However, considering the massive struggles at the quarterback position, most teams were content with letting the Raiders try to beat them through the air.

Jacobs is one of the few true workhorse backs in the NFL. He can handle 250 touches with ease and has twice finished with more than 300 touches. His 2022 season when he averaged 18.5 half-PPR PPG looks like an outlier when comparing it to his other four seasons. That year he averaged 23.1 touches per game, but in his other seasons, he averaged 19.8. He also averaged 120.8 scrimmage yards per game in 2022 compared to his 88.2 per game average in his other four seasons. If fantasy managers are chasing that 2022 season, they’re likely to be left disappointed, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be better than last season.

Like Henry, Jacobs will likely have a good number of suitors. Those include the Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys (assuming Tony Pollard isn’t re-signed), Philadelphia Eagles (assuming D’Andre Swift isn’t re-signed), Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, and the Los Angeles Chargers. With the hire of Antonio Pierce, a player favorite in Las Vegas, it’s also possible Jacobs could choose to re-sign with the Raiders.

Even if Jacobs decides to re-sign with the Raiders, he should be ranked as a top-12 running back going into next season. Much like Henry, virtually anywhere he signs, including Las Vegas, will be a significant situational upgrade.

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

Barkley is likely to be viewed as the best running back on the market. He’s more talented than Jacobs and much younger than Henry. For teams looking to spend money at the running back position, Barkley is likely to be their first call. He’s the best all-around running back available. He’s a true, three-down back who excels at running and catching the football.

His first six years in the NFL haven’t been easy and he hasn’t been able to replicate his masterful rookie season. Some of that is due to injuries (torn ACL, multiple high ankle sprains), but also because of poor quarterback play and even worse offensive lines. Looking at the table below, you can see Barkley’s efficiency has left a bit to be desired. His 2021 season looks dreadful, but this was his first year post-ACL tear and he dealt with a high-ankle sprain for a number of games.

For the past three seasons, 2021-2023, the Giants have finished in 30th place according to PFF’s final offensive line rankings. The Giants offense finished 30th in points, 29th in yards, 30th in yards per play, and 29th in points per drive. They were, without question, one of the worst three offenses in the NFL. Don’t hold his lack of efficiency against him though. Barkley is coming off back-to-back seasons with 20 or more touches and 88 or more scrimmage yards per game. He’s averaged over four targets in each of the past three seasons. His fantasy and NFL arrows are both pointing up.

Barkley will have a number of suitors, as well. Most of them are going to be the same as Henry and Jacobs. Those include the Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys (assuming Tony Pollard isn’t re-signed), Philadelphia Eagles (assuming D’Andre Swift isn’t re-signed), Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, and the Los Angeles Chargers. It’s possible the Giants could franchise Barkley again, an outcome that shouldn’t be ruled out.

Ultimately, I expect Barkley to get to the open market where he’ll finally get out of New York. Anywhere, and I mean anywhere, will be better than the Giants. After years of losing, expect Barkley to focus on the money (obviously), but also on a winning environment. In the right situation, Barkley should be viewed as a top-five running back for 2024.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

In hindsight, Pollard's struggle with the increased workload shouldn’t be surprising. From 2021 to 2022 he averaged 12.9 touches per game. This past year, with Ezekiel Elliott no longer in Dallas, that shot up to 18.0. This increased workload negatively impacted his efficiency. He averaged just 4.3 yards per touch, which was much lower than his previous career-low (4.9), set in 2020.

The Cowboys and fantasy managers saw his efficiency decrease across the board in almost every category. NFL teams will likely have noticed this too and might determine that Pollard is best in a committee instead of the clear-alpha as he was in Dallas. He handled 307 touches this past year and finished with 1,316 yards.

While you can see from the table above that his half-PPR PPG average dropped significantly, a lot of that is due to extremely poor touchdown luck. He had 12 touchdowns in 2022 on 232 touches but scored just six times this past year on 307 touches. That’s despite finishing with 72 red zone touches, which was second among all running backs.

If anything, Pollard might be a good buy candidate in dynasty leagues. He failed to make do on the promise of a potential top-10 season this past year and now he’s a free agent. His value is the lowest since 2020, but he’s still averaged 70 or more scrimmage yards per game in three straight seasons.

The best thing for Pollard’s fantasy value would be a return to Dallas. He finished with the seventh most carries, 11th most targets and second most red zone touches. Even if Dallas brings in competition of some sort, this is still the best place for his fantasy value. Given Dallas’ cap situation and the poor incoming 2024 class of running backs, don’t be surprised if Pollard resigns with Dallas on a somewhat team-friendly deal.

Pollard struggled a bit in a workhorse role and that’s going to impact his dollar-figure value in free agency just enough that Dallas might be able to make something happen to get him back in the fold for 2024. If they can’t, I like the Bears and Texans as the best fits. The Bears, with Johnson and Herbert, could return Pollard to his hyper-efficient role in a committee without breaking the bank. The Texans would have Pollard as their No. 1 back, but Pierce could operate in short-yardage and goal-line situations, a role that Pollard struggled with this past season. Pollard's pass-catching abilities would look good with Stroud too.

Pollard should still be valued as an RB2 going into 2024. Regardless of where he goes, his body of work and skillset will have him handling at least 200 touches with a positive role in the passing game. If he returns to Dallas and they keep their backfield largely the same, he should be a real nice value to fantasy managers this upcoming season.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

Ekeler will turn 29 this summer, so he’s officially in that danger zone for running backs. He handled 587 touches from 2021 to 2022 and at just 200 pounds, that’s a massive workload. He had 230 touches this past season and all that volume may have finally caught up to him. Ekeler hit a wall in 2023. His efficiency decreased across the board, dramatically in some spots. His days as a workhorse are all but over. You can see that from the table below.

Any team looking to sign Ekeler will likely do so with the intent of using him as a pass-catching, third-down option out of the backfield. He’s handled 12-13 carries per game the past three seasons, but fantasy managers should be expecting that to dip below 10 in 2024 for the first time since 2019. Given his age and disappointing 2023 season, he’s not likely to command a large payday this offseason.

Due to his specific skillset, age, and declining talent, Ekeler could garner interest from a dark horse team not previously mentioned. If the Raiders choose to give Zamir White a chance at the starting gig, they could potentially sign Ekeler to a cheaper contract to operate as the team’s primary pass-catching option. Where Ekeler ends up is a bit more challenging to predict because, at this point in his career, he needs a very specific role to be successful.

It’s hard to envision Ekeler as anything more than an RB3 heading into 2024. In all reality, he’s likely someone fantasy managers should avoid. That may seem hard to believe since he had finished as a top-three running back in 2021 and 2022, but life comes at you fast as an NFL running back.

D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles

Ironically enough, Swift received the most touches of his career and finished with his first 1,000-yard season, yet he still managed to have his worst half-PPR PPG average of his career. You might be wondering how that can be possible. It’s quite simple though. He averaged, by far, the fewest receptions of his career and had his worst touchdown per touch average. Some of that could be bad luck, but in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts, that’s going to continue to be a reality even if the tush push is made illegal, which I don’t expect it will.

Swift averaged more receptions per game in each of his first three seasons than he did targets this past season. He also scored more touchdowns in each of his first three seasons despite never playing more than 14 games (he played 16 in 2023) and never having more than 215 touches (he had 268 this past year). He scored a touchdown on every 20.8 touches in Detroit and just one on every 44.7 touches in Philadelphia. The tush push is a big part of that. Because of that, it’s not a stretch to say that Swift’s fantasy value will go up if he signs elsewhere, even if his total touches go down.

Regardless of where Swift ends up, he should be valued as an RB2. Like Pollard, Swift saw some of his efficiency decline with the increased volume. His yard per carry was better than it was in 2021, but as you can see from the table, his yard after contact per attempt has largely stayed the same. His best fantasy landing spots could be with the Chargers or the Texans. If he were to end up there, Swift could flirt with RB1 numbers.

A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers

Dillon isn’t a very exciting running back. He doesn’t catch many passes. He doesn’t have any home-run ability. He’s not going to break off many long plays. He’s a dependable bruiser who can operate between the tackles and in a short-yardage role. For fantasy, there’s not much upside with those kinds of touches.

Looking at the table above, the results are mostly mediocre. Dillon is a running back who, if you need three yards, gets you four. If you need six, eight, or 10 yards, he still gets you four. He can catch the ball, but he’s not explosive after the catch. His efficiency is poor. Dillon is a fine, dependable, in-between-the-tackles running back. Nothing more, nothing less. He’s simple but boring.

Because of this, it’s hard to gauge where he might land in free agency. He won’t receive a large deal in free agency which means almost any team could be interested. Since he’s not a three-down back, plenty of teams could have interest in him as a complimentary piece to their backfield.

Regardless of where Dillon finds himself, he’s likely not to be ranked higher than a mid-to-backend RB3. However, his two best fits could be the Chargers or the Eagles. The Chargers don’t have a ton of cash and the Eagles have historically not devoted a ton of resources and capital to the position. Jim Harbaugh likely wants to establish a more consistent running game and Dillon could help do that. The Eagles rushing attack struggled this past season and they could look for a bigger back to handle those inside zone runs.

Since Dillon is not an alpha running back, there could be many suitors. Earlier we mentioned the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders as possible running back destinations. Barkley could leave. Jacobs could leave. If that happens, both teams have holes at running back. Since they are rebuilding, they may not want to devote a big contract to a position with a lot of turnover. However, a good running game is still important to a young quarterback. In that sense, any of those three teams could have interest in Dillon who could help stabilize their running game at a fraction of the cost.

Devin Singletary, Houston Texans

Singletary has been underappreciated for his entire career. Despite playing in Buffalo for four years where he had to share goal-line touches with Josh Allen and played on an incredibly pass-heavy offense, Singletary still managed to average 204 touches, 1,031 scrimmage yards, and five touchdowns a season. In his first season with Houston, he finished with 246 touches (a career-high), 1,091 scrimmage yards, and four touchdowns. He’s been unbelievably consistent. In his five seasons in the NFL, he’s had between 180 to 246 touches and 956 to 1,099 scrimmage yards each year.

The table above shows that Singletary has been a solid running back for the past three seasons. His half-PPR PPG average is that of a high-end RB3 most seasons. Like Dillon, he’s a fine, dependable, but slightly boring running back. He can catch the ball, but he’s nothing special in that regard.

His best fit is a return to Houston, working in tandem with Pierce, whom he already beat out. If the Texans’ backfield remains status quo heading into 2024, Singletary would have some legit backend RB2 appeal. Anywhere else, and he falls back into that mid-RB3 range where he’s always been. Like Dillon, the Chargers and Eagles could also be appealing destinations if those teams opt for a cheaper running back solution.

Since Singletary is best viewed as a complementary back, there could be other teams that have an interest. The Giants, Panthers, and Raiders certainly come to mind, much like Dillon. Since none of them truly look to be competitive in 2024, they could opt for a cheaper running back solution such as Singletary who can still provide a positive outcome.

Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders

Gibson will be an interesting player to watch in free agency. His 2023 was, by far, the worst season of his career. However, a lot of that had to do with limited opportunities. The coaching staff in Washington stuck with Brian Robinson Jr. and Gibson fell out of favor. That’s far from ideal and is certainly not a good look. He finished with the fewest number of touches (113) and scrimmage yards (654) of his career and scored only three total touchdowns.

As you can see from the table below, there was a major shift in Gibson’s utilization from 2021 to 2022. 2022 marked Robinson’s rookie season. As a rookie back in 2020, Gibson finished the season averaging 12.1 attempts and 56.8 rushing yards per game. He also averaged 3.1 targets, 2.6 receptions, and 17.6 receiving yards per game. In his first two seasons in the NFL, Gibson finished with 506 touches, 2,373 scrimmage yards, and 21 touchdowns. Even in his third year, he still ended the season with 195 touches, 899 yards, and five touchdowns. Say what you will about 2023, but from 2020 to 2022, Gibson was a very productive player.

On the surface, Robinson looked like a far superior player in 2023 based on the final stats. But is this accurate? Gibson averaged 4.1 yards per carry compared to Robinson’s 4.1 yards per carry. Robinson had a 47.8% success rate, while Gibson's was 43.1%. Robinson averaged 2.2 yards before contact per attempt and Gibson averaged 1.9. However, Gibson averaged 2.2 yards after contact per attempt, while Robinson only averaged 1.9.

Gibson is still unlikely to have a big free agent market. This is because he's coming off the worst season of his career and 2024's group of free agent running backs is loaded. He could, however, end up being a nice bargain purchase for a team unwilling or unable to spend big at the position. Gibson has the size to be a three-down back and has demonstrated some of that ability. He's certainly a player worth keeping an eye on to see where he falls.

Right now, Gibson's value is the lowest it's been since coming into the NFL. He was a mid-RB2 as a rookie and followed that up with a sophomore campaign that flirted with a top-12 fantasy finish. In 2022, he was more of a high-end RB3 before falling into fantasy irrelevancy this past season. He'll likely find himself ranked as an RB4/RB5 going into 2024, but if he lands in the right spot, his value could increase to a mid-RB3 with upside. If the Raiders were to sign him to compete in a backfield with youngster Zamir White, Gibson would have some sleeper appeal. He's shown he can be a productive player in the right role.

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