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Thunder Dan Palyo gives his picks against the spread, over/under, and on the moneyline. These are the best NFL bets for Week 11.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers, and welcome to this week's NFL betting picks. We saw the Ravens secure their spot atop the AFC North last night with a dominant win against the Bengals, but they lost their best receiver (TE Mark Andrews) in the process. Meanwhile, the Bengals were with Joe Burrow in the second half and dropped to 5-5 with the loss. It could be trouble in Cincinnati if Burrow ends up missing more time.
By the way, I am Thunder Dan Palyo -- the lead sports betting and DFS analyst and editor here at RotoBaller. I'm just filling in this week for our usual betting picks author Mitch, but you can follow me @ThunderDanDFS on X if you want as I am usually posting betting or DFS content for NFL (and other sports) quite often.
Mitch will be back next week and he can recap his Week 10 picks and update his record. For now, let's jump right into the picks!
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Week 11 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Minnesota Vikings (+2) @ Denver Broncos
Sunday, 8:25 pm | O/U: 42.5
It's hard not to really like this Minnesota team, right? They lost their best player Justin Jefferson for four weeks and then their franchise quarterback Kirk Cousins for the rest of the season and they are still battling at 6-4. The trade for Josh Dobbs has worked out incredibly as he came off the bench in his first appearance to lead them to an improbable win and then played great again last week as they upset the New Orleans Saints.
I don’t even know what else to say about Josh Dobbs at this point. The Vikings got him from the Cardinals for basically nothing! pic.twitter.com/82xT7urxd0
— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) November 12, 2023
The Purple People Eaters have now rolled off five straight wins and are positioning themselves for a potential postseason bid. They head into Denver a confident bunch and Justin Jefferson seems to be itching to return, though it might not happen this week just yet (stay tuned). The Vikings are now 4-1 on the road this season and 3-2 as underdogs, showing some true resiliency in the face of adversity.
Now, Denver is no slouch either and they happen to be playing some of their best football of the year as well, winning three in a row including two huge wins over the Chiefs and Bills. This should be a battle, but I like the Vikings offense over the Denver defense (although it has been much improved) and I think the Minnesota defense is highly underrated and could have the edge against the Bronco offense. In a game that could be a coin flip, give the underdog and the QB who has been making big plays (Dobbs).
Pick: Vikings ML (+110), Bet 1 Unit to win 1.1 Unit
Week 11 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) @ Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U: 44
The Chargers have been a letdown. At 4-5, they are under .500 despite having one of the best offenses in the game and some phenomenal defensive players (Mack, Bosa, etc). This is all too familiar for fans as the Chargers have been good, but not great, for the Justin Herbert era and everyone keeps waiting for them to take the next step toward becoming an actual championship contender.
The season is only half over, and if they have aspirations of a playoff run they need a win on the road in Green Bay this week. They battled the Lions admirably last week, putting up 38 points but still losing in heartbreaking fashion. The good news is that their offense is firing on all cylinders, but this defense simply continues to give up way too many points and yards to opponents.
Touchdown machine.
Austin Ekeler rushes in for the TD.#Chargers cut the lead to 7.#BoltUppic.twitter.com/aSsPZx24k8
— Chargers Central (@BoltCentral) November 12, 2023
The Packers offense is...well, they are NOT anywhere close to the Lions. Jordan Love has shown some nice accuracy on deep balls but is still inconsistent and threw two crucial interceptions in the final minutes that doomed a Packers comeback against the Steelers last week. The Packer defense is middling at best, giving the Chargers a big advantage and I expect them to take advantage.
Three points here isn't much to cover for a team that is far more talented. As long as the Chargers bring their "A-game", they should take care of business. That certainly isn't a guarantee with this group, but with this being a must-win game I think we see LA's best effort.
Pick: Chargers -3 (-115), Bet 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Week 11 NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) @ Houston Texans
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U:48
I am ready for some offense in this game and building a lot of my DFS lineups around the players in it. The Houston Texans are surging right now with two straight wins in which they put up 39 and 30 points. C.J. Stroud is feeling himself and has been getting the ball to his playmakers (Collins, Dell, Schultz, Brown), while Devin Singletary got the ground game going again last week with 150 yards on 30 carries.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals' offense is reborn with Kyler Murray back under center. They were shut out by Cleveland during the one-week gap between Joshua Dobbs' departure and Murray's return, but this unit moved the ball up and down the field last week and ended up beating Atlanta 25-23.
The camera angle on this Kyler Murray scramble from Sunday 🔥 pic.twitter.com/zEGvAkO8jS
— The Fantasy Source (@FantasySource_) November 14, 2023
Murray showed he can still make some electric plays while scrambling and made some big-time throws, too. Arizona's defense ranks near the bottom of the league in nearly every metric, which means Houston should be able to run and pass the ball at will. But with Murray now elevating the rest of his playmakers on offense, I think we see the Cardinals do their part and score on the other side of this matchup, setting us up for a shootout of sorts.
I am going over 48 points here and I won't be surprised if these teams end up combining for around 60+. Stack it up in DFS and let's cash this ticket!
Pick: Over 48 (-108), Bet 1.08 units to win 1 unit
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