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Chris Wassel's NBA betting picks for 12/18/19. He analyzes NBA Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
It is a new beginning on RotoBaller as we expand into NBA betting. At first, there will be two short columns a week and the hope is for an expansion of not just NBA betting but who knows what else may come.
I'm here to break down each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even money lines for this Wednesday NBA schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you every week.
Wednesday night's slate features nine games on the schedule in all.
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS to chat about basketball and my picks.
Washington (-1.5) vs Chicago
O/U: 230.5
The Wizards and Bulls represent a matchup of contrasts. Washington and Chicago are both bottom dwellers of the Eastern Conference. Both teams have been fairly cold of late with Chicago going 4-6 in their last ten while Washington has gone 3-7.
The Bulls come in with no rest and after just giving up 143 points to the New York Knicks of all teams. Washington won its last game and can give up 120+ and score 120+ points with much ease. It is why there exist a fun and interesting "double bet" potential.
However, this will not be as easy as it looks. Washington is 8-17 straight up on the season but is 5-5 ATS at home while Chicago is 10-19 straight up and 7-6 ATS on the road. That just seems to make some hesitant. However, giving up just a point and a half is not terrible. It's almost a push if one argues that home advantage can carry 2-3 points typically. Both teams have sailed past the over in two straight games. That includes last night's Chicago game where the Bulls and Knicks combined for 263 points. Even the moneyline is not bad for this game, but let's not push our luck.
Picks: Washington -1.5, over 230.5
Charlotte (+3) at Cleveland
O/U: 213
The Bobcats are on a bit of a roll winning four of the last five games and going 4-1 ATS in that span as well. That includes hitting the over in their last contest. Cleveland has connected on the over in three straight games but has lost two in a row. Cleveland is a dismal 3-10 at home while Charlotte is 6-9 on the road. The wrinkle is that Charlotte is 8-7 ATS on the road. There have been typically a lot of movements with their games so that will be something to watch out for. Could this spread move to +2 or +2.5? It is quite possible. This spread has moved to +3.5 in some places too. Keep that in mind.
One might be inclined to look at the over and again that is enticing. However, with two bottom-paced teams (27th and 25th in the NBA) facing each other, this game could be ugly offensively. The spread becomes a safer pick and betting Charlotte to win outright on the moneyline is not outrageous.
The most prudent thing is to take the Hornets with the points on Wednesday night. It is expected to be a very close game and again, Charlotte could win outright.
Pick: Charlotte +3
Golden State at Portland (-9)
O/U: 220.5
It is safe to say that Portland has improved a little over the last ten games -- going 6-4 in that span. They are a mediocre 5-6 at home but that is a lot better than Golden State's abysmal 3-13 road mark.
The first half over/under was pondered. On the other hand, this game could turn hot in the second half. The overall over/under carries some intrigue here as it is only 220.5. That is a reasonable number. Some sites even trended closer to 222 for a bit but that has backed off some.
However, the safest bet on Wednesday here is the spread of just nine points. Consider that Golden State has been outscored overall by a margin of 9,4 points per contest. That number jumps to almost 12 on the road. There is some risk given that Portland is only 4-6-1 ATS at home and Golden State is 8-8 on the road ATS. On the other hand, Portland could be a late hammer here and is a reasonable cover at -9. If this gets to -10 or greater, then pivot to the under of 220.5 but otherwise, stay with the spread.
Pick: Portland -9
Boston at Dallas (+3)
O/U: 218 1/2
Dallas has been one of the craziest teams to figure out all season. They started hot, got cold, and now have won seven of their last ten games. Boston had won six of their previous eight games but have dropped their last two in troubling fashion. The Mavericks are getting about three points on average across the board here. Even the over/under is set at a solid number.
It would be intriguing to try Dallas with the three points given their performances of late but that over has connected four consecutive times. Even Boston has seen the over hit in each of their two previous losses. Let's keep this one simple. Take the over in this game as Dallas averages just over 118 points per game and 116.6 at home. Boston scores at a rate of almost 109 a night on the road.
Pick: Over 218.5
