RADIO
We are in the thick of fantasy football draft season and hope springs eternal for most players, but they won't all be winners. Fantasy managers must identify which players to target and avoid at their current ADP and today we're attending The 2024 Playa Haters' Ball. This article will highlight "My Fades," who I can't bring myself to select.
Allow me to get this, “Why take Player X when you can get Player Y in Round Z?” trope out of the way. It is a correct statement but can snowball into not taking anyone in the first four rounds because you need all of your cheap alternatives in Rounds 7-12.
Some feel like popular fades while others aren't, but if "we're all fading them" is true, then I'm not sure how their ADPs remain so high! We'll ding a QB, a couple of RBs, five WRs, and two TEs while citing our aggregate half-PPR ADP. Let's get to it!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
C.J. Stroud, QB5 - Houston Texans
This one hurts but the market has forced my hand. If you believe that Stroud will take a Mahomesian leap in Year 2 with an elite WR trio, then more power to you. I’ve seen him fall a round or two in drafts to where his median expectation plants him, but typically he is the QB5. By most platforms' ADP, he is the QB5. That price skews toward his ceiling too much for this writer.
As a rookie, he made some dazzling plays and posted a robust 23:5 TD:INT over 15 games (more like 14 with the early Week 14 exit). Let’s just look at Weeks 1-13 before the injury and you’ll see he was the QB5 in total points and the QB4 with 20.2 PPG. You can say that was him being a rookie so let’s grow from there, while I can say the cushy schedule is tough to run back.
Today's stat @RotoWire C.J. Stroud had 6 300-yd gms. 4 of 6 gms came in W9-12, which was his only easy stretch of gms (#22-29 vs QBs).Stroud had 1 gm with more than 2 pass TDs. Don't forget, this offense is like the 49ers- they may not pass often. Stroud's ADP may be his ceiling. pic.twitter.com/2aTSw2Myu9
— Jim Coventry (@JimCoventryNFL) June 28, 2024
To be clear, Stroud is not bad and his ADP may very well prove appropriate. But that doesn’t make a good value within the market of fantasy QB ADPs for 2024. Dak Prescott had 21.7 PPG in that W1-13 window. Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy, Sam Howell, Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love, and Kirk Cousins were all within a single point per game of Stroud.
Stroud also was effectively sixth in fantasy points per dropback with 0.53, per Fantasy Points Data Suite. Purdy (0.64) was the leader, with Prescott (0.57) and Lamar Jackson (0.57) joining the elite Josh Allen (0.63) and Jalen Hurts (0.63) ahead of Stroud. Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, and Russell Wilson were also between 0.51 and 0.53.
Stroud’s volume helped get him there, but that can be more difficult to lean on versus the raw output per play metric year over year. The greater point here is that Stroud is not demonstrably better than plenty of QBs going a couple of rounds after him. Most of his ceiling is baked into the price unless he suddenly decides to rush more than 39 times for 167 yards.
The difference between opting for Stroud in Round 5 over a QB in Rounds 7-10 may buy you another point per week. But the opportunity cost of a fifth-round RB/WR such as Tee Higgins or Kenneth Walker III could leave a bigger gap compared to Keon Coleman or Devin Singletary, for instance.
- Vegas projected team scoring: 49ers > Texans
- Surrounding cast: Aiyuk, Deebo, Kittle, CMC, Pearsall > Nico, Diggs, Dell, Mixon, Schultz
- Playoff schedule: LAR, MIA, DET softer than MIA, KC, BAL
- Last year PPG: Purdy > StroudStroud QB6
Purdy QB13— David Zäch (@DavidZach16) July 22, 2024
And while Justin Herbert is a gamer and the price is modest, I am out on plantar fasciitis in general. No thanks! My ranks vs. ADP also tell me I’m colder on Anthony Richardson and Joe Burrow by nearly a round.
Saquon Barkley, RB4 - Philadelphia Eagles
Barkley has dealt with a myriad of injuries and poor play over his six-year career in New York, but can the Bronx native find new life in Philadelphia? With an Underdog ADP of 18, a 15 ADP on DraftKings, and a top-12 ADP on most major redraft platforms, it seems most think he will.
Many are saying he managed 3.9 yards per carry behind the 2023 New York Giants offensive line and now he has a complete team around him after totaling over 300 opportunities in just 14 games for Big Blue. But the 27-year-old will no longer be the clear focal point of his offense.
PHI RB per-game PPR finishes with Jalen Hurts at QB:
2021 - RB41
2022 - RB22
2023 - RB24PHI RB expected PPR points per game, per @FantasyPtsData:
2021 - RB33
2022 - RB26
2023 - RB24 https://t.co/KRU3nlTV3M— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 2, 2024
Jalen Hurts is a clear goal-line threat, with the “Tush Push” proving an invaluable weapon. Some point to Jason Kelce’s retirement and say it won’t be as effective this year, but that’s a disservice to the rest of the line, the crux of the Brotherly Shove, and Richie Gray’s overall influence.
The left guard, Landon Dickerson, and the left tackle, Jordan Mailata, play a bigger role than most assume. Dickerson and Mailata squeeze down and give Hurts an avenue to follow a closing gate on the defensive line. And Barkley is so dang strong that his pushing behind may help Hurts compensate for the loss of Kelce.
All of this yields a tough buy in an unproven concept. PFF’s preseason offensive line ranks still have the Eagles at second, trailing only Detroit. Philly has two alpha WRs, a healthy Dallas Goedert, and a versatile back in Will Shipley. And now it has traded for Jahan Dotson as a capable No. 3 as Johnny Wilson develops. The RB is not yet a focal point.
If Barkley steps into D'Andre Swift’s 278 opportunities and variance limits the number of times Barkley is halted at the 1-yard line, then he could win out. But then again, he appears to be priced at the top of an RB tier that runs rather deeply through the upper rounds.
Why is he going five picks ahead of De'Von Achane? A full round above Kyren Williams and Derrick Henry? Isiah Pacheco had 254 opportunities in 14 games with a similarly potent KC offense and is about two rounds behind Barkley. It doesn’t add up from a coldhearted price-point analysis.
James Cook, RB14 - Buffalo Bills
Cook finished as the RB18 on a per-game basis last season. He averaged 13.7 PPR fantasy points on a 62.4% opportunity share. That was exactly double his opportunity share as a rookie. However, his production and utilization ebbed and flowed from week to week.
Cook had seven games with single-digit fantasy points, eight games between 10 and 19 fantasy points, and just two games over 20 fantasy points. In the five games Cook found the end zone, he averaged 22.9 fantasy points per game, but in the 12 games he didn’t, he averaged just 9.9 fantasy points per game. Quite a contrast!
Touchdowns can vary from season to season, but the Bills consistently went away from Cook whenever they got close to the goal line last season. They gave a 34-year-old Latavius Murray more than double the number of carries inside the 5-yard line (11) than they gave Cook (four). And they'd surely envisioned Damien Harris filling that role originally.
Ray Davis can be what they wanted Damien Harris to be last year. It’s not the best for James Cook’s fantasy value - but it gives the Bills some much needed oomph in the backfield
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) April 27, 2024
As you can see from his production last season, Cook wasn’t giving fantasy managers enough on the games that he didn’t find the end zone. That’s because Cook only saw 54 targets in the passing game.
His route participation rate of 45.9% leaves a lot to be desired for a guy who isn’t scoring touchdowns. Take Alvin Kamara, for example. He only scored six touchdowns last season but was propped up by his 86 targets in 13 games and went on to finish as the RB3 in PPR leagues. Unless Cook becomes much more involved in the passing game and around the goal line, his upside is capped.
And it doesn’t seem like that’s going to happen in 2024 as the Bills drafted Ray Davis and are seemingly comfortable with new-addition Curtis Samuel out of the backfield as well. Frank Gore Jr. just excelled in his preseason work on August 24, logging an 18-101-1 rushing line. Perhaps a Davis injury would not lead to Cook RZ chances.
Chris Olave, WR12 - New Orleans Saints
Olave may be on that earlier list but his 16.6 Underdog ADP and 19.9 DK ADP are only 2-3 slots behind Drake London. At least he’s behind Nico Collins and Davante Adams on DK. But what sizable leap are we projecting for last season’s WR19 (WR20 by half-PPR PPG)?
If the market is placing this much faith in Derek Carr improving, then how is he the QB24 or worse on almost all major platforms? Olave had three top-12 weeks in half-PPR scoring but no finishes higher than ninth. Again, one realizes we aren’t drafting 2023 stats and we hope Klint Kubiak rejuvenates this squad.
We’ve heard that New Orleans is trying to veil its play-calling throughout the preseason so it’s difficult to judge expectations. Underdog’s Hayden Winks posted that they had the fifth-lowest play-action rate (18%) without any RPO plays as of August 19.
Saints with a 0% RPO rate (lowest) and 18% play action rate (5th lowest) so far this preseason. pic.twitter.com/gJ2vsUPvoe
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) August 20, 2024
Perhaps Carr does improve and the market simply has a massive blind spot. Does Michael Thomas being off the team improve Olave’s outlook that much? Maybe that trio of games with 110 or more yards in his final six games of the season is closer to his 2024 median than originally thought.
But selecting Olave in the top 20 when he was barely within that at his position last season, let alone overall, makes it tough to see the vision. If you are a big Spencer Rattler fan, then more power to you, I suppose. This is just not the profile/offense I want to buy into with a second-round pick.
Stefon Diggs, WR18 - Houston Texans
Diggs enters a Texans team that immediately provides more target competition than he’s dealt with in recent seasons. I know my place as a fantasy writer and it is far from the psychiatrist’s chair, but can Diggs handle being a secondary WR?
We saw him yelling on the sidelines in Buffalo as frustrations mounted and we’ve already seen that during the preseason in Houston. It could be nothing, but the precedent has been set. It’s one thing to be the No. 2 WR but he could easily be the No. 3 here!
The market is used to Diggs being the alpha, but can we say that with such conviction next to Nico Collins and Tank Dell? And that would be true even if we assumed the best form of Diggs, which we cannot do after the 2023 season’s second half.
Between Weeks 10-17, Diggs was the half-PPR WR55 with a horrid 6.8 PPG buoyed by one 16.4 score. Otherwise, he never actually topped that 6.8 PPG mark. For reference, he had double-digit points in nine straight games to open the season.
Perhaps you are banking on a phantom injury getting cleared up or simply leaning on the star receiver’s overall body of work rather than succumbing to recency bias. But even then you must contend with Collins and Dell, who had respective team target rates of 26.8% and 23.1% last season.
Dalton Schultz was also a top-12 TE in both raw fantasy points and by PFF’s receiving grade. They brought in Joe Mixon, who has averaged over 50 receptions over his last three seasons in Cincinnati.
C.J. Stroud has shown that greatness is within his wheelhouse, but something has to give so your confidence better shine like this market price. For me, it simply doesn't. These are my fades after all!
Michael Pittman Jr., WR20 - Indianapolis Colts
Pittman enjoyed Gardner Minshew II in relief of an injured Anthony Richardson last season. Jonathan Taylor was banged up for effectively half of the season while Alec Pierce did nothing to earn more than a few deep balls per game.
The stars aligned for MPJ to approach his ceiling in 2023 but the team is healthy around him for now. Perhaps you’re an optimist who says a rising tide lifts all ships.
But the red-zone equity should be ground-centric with Richardson and Taylor. A Year 2 Josh Downs and Adonai Mitchell are contending WRs. It's not ideal for Downs to already have an ankle injury but he shouldn't miss much of the season, if any, and stood out as a rookie more than the "Pittman is a clear No. 1" thought train allows.
Michael Pittman and Josh Downs were on the field together for 424 routes in 2023. The gap in their production while sharing the field was closer than you might realize.
Targets
108 - Pittman
88 - DownsReceiving yards
824 - Pittman
727 - DownsPPR points
165.4 - Pittman
145.7…— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 31, 2024
We didn’t see much from Richardson due to injury, but through their first five games, Pittman only had one target inside the 10-yard line. And that'll be a big piece with deep balls not a proven priority for MPJ.
Of the 57 qualified receivers:
Michael Pittman Jr ranked 48th in Air Yards per reception
With Indy adding Adonai Mitchell, expecting Josh Downs and Jelani Woods to make improvements, and Jonathan Taylor returning, it’s hard to justify Pittman’s WR19 ADP
— Fantasy Football Ring Factory (@FFRingFactory) August 19, 2024
If you can talk yourself into this, then how do we rectify MPJ and Terry McLaurin having a sizable ADP gap? MPJ has a consensus half-PPR ADP of 37 while McLaurin sits at 69. (This is especially egregious on ESPN, where Pittman owns an ADP of 20.)
Both have rushing QBs on iffy offenses. They’re both the No. 1 WR with, let’s say, unproven WR/TE talent around them. Each of them is seemingly locked in for 1,000-1,200 yards with a history of underperforming in the end zone, scoring around 5-6 times for eternity.
Zay Flowers, WR26 - Baltimore Ravens
Flowers had zero top-12 weekly finishes (in half or full PPR) in his first 11 games before exploding down the stretch. Some may say that’s just a rookie getting adjusted to the NFL and then blossoming. But his ascension perfectly coincides with Mark Andrews’ season-ending injury and that cannot be ignored.
Flowers was the half-PPR WR4, WR7, WR103, WR14, and WR9 in Weeks 12-17 (Week 13 BYE) without Andrews.
But Andrews enters the 2024 season healthy, having just led the NFL with 13 red-zone targets when on the field in Weeks 2-10. He caught nine of those, resulting in six TDs. Flowers had one RZ TD on six targets over those nine games. Five games without Andrews saw him catch a pair of RZ TDs on five targets. Does Jackson have to progress beyond Andrews on his reads?
Plus, Derrick Henry reinvigorates a rushing attack that scrambled with Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, Keaton Mitchell, and Melvin Gordon III after J.K. Dobbins was lost in Week 1. The optimist will say that Flowers is still only contending with Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, and a fourth-round rookie in Devontez Walker for WR reps.
But he’s likely still the fourth priority behind Lamar Jackson, Henry, and Andrews. That’s a steep mountain to climb when the opportunity cost in most drafts is a top QB/TE, with others like George Pickens, Amari Cooper, Christian Kirk, Terry McLaurin, and more targets going one to two rounds later.
Mike Evans, WR15 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Hopefully, no one will pay attention to this as I sneak it in. This writer hopes the 1,000-yard streak continues but Evans is another year older, Dave Canales is gone, and Liam Coen is an unknown, while Jalen McMillan and Bucky Irving are robust pass-catching rookies. I've been a Bucs fan since the late 90s but I've got cold feet here.
Sam LaPorta, TE1 - Detroit Lions
LaPorta is exciting but the price sucks. He and Travis Kelce keep switching at TE1/2 but this holds in either case. In all, LaPorta's 239.3 PPR points edged Evan Engram’s 230.3 for TE1 honors. In half-PPR, his 196.3 points had a higher gap over Engram and three others between 170-174 points.
But you’re sharp and won’t be duped by raw totals without further context, right? The best ability is availability and LaPorta played all 17 games, as did Engram. But Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, David Njoku, and T.J. Hockenson did not.
Kittle and Njoku only missed Week 18, but Kelce, Andrews, and Hockenson missed W1-17 time, with Andrews missing seven games plus an early exit. So, let’s take a look at per-game stats rather than totals.
In half-PPR, LaPorta, Kelce, Hockenson, and Andrews all averaged between 11.3-11.5 points, with Kittle tallying 10.7, Engram scoring 10.2, and Njoku with 10. In full PPR, Kelce and Hockenson led with 14.6, while LaPorta (14.1), Engram (13.5), Andrews (13.5), Kittle (12.7), and Njoku (12.6) were behind them.
The point here is that if one assumes general health for the top TEs, then how is LaPorta a good value as the costliest one given the clumping of their PPG? And the opportunity cost of a valuable RB/WR in the third round cannot be overlooked. The suggestion is turning elsewhere when LaPorta tends to come up in draft rooms.
If you disagree with the premise of “assuming general health” and are actively fading some of the older TEs due to wear and tear, then that’s your prerogative. But these kinds of conversations are happening all over.
SAM LAPORTA is a nuanced convo 🥱😄
⭐️ TE 1 in ADP (Rnd 2 on FFPC & 2/3 turn on UD)
🥈 TE 2 in Projections (Behind Kelce👀)Problem is: All these TEs score within 1.5 PPR PPG
🔹 McBride
🔹 Andrews
🔹 Pitts
🔹 Kincaid
🔹Evan Engram
🔹 even Kittle, Njoku & Ferguson🤔— Ty (@TnfFtyrell) June 13, 2024
*Dalton Kincaid would be the next man up but his ADP is a lesser land mine. It’s been a limited sample size but we’ve yet to see Buffalo commit to him with elite volume when Dawson Knox is healthy and available near the red zone. It does seem logical that a lack of other key options will force Kincaid to the top of the target tree.
T.J. Hockenson, TE13 - Minnesota Vikings
Some of you may have IR slots to toy with on draft day but I typically don’t so I’ll use Hock as a greater point to not clog the bench with longer-term injury stashes. At least Nick Chubb has a league-winning upside if 85-90% of his pre-injury form is there (though I'm not targeting him, either).
But we could be without Hockenson through Minnesota’s Week 6 bye. That not only means you’re waiting on Hock, but you’re also hoping that Sam Darnold/Nick Mullens is up to the task.
And you’re burning a bench spot on a tight end after a major injury while passing up on the early season waiver churn that you must be involved in. You have to play to win, just like the lottery. Also, injuries will come, so occupying the IR immediately will squeeze your future decisions.
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