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It's Thanksgiving Week and we have a ton of football and DFS in our lives over the next seven days! My man @JorgePucks said I did such a good job last week that I should take another crack at his showdown article here this week and so here I am back at it again.
Week 11 of Monday Night Football has a big-time matchup between two legit NFC teams as the 6-3 Rams take on the 7-2 Bucs. Tampa is a 4.5 point home favorite here and this game has a 48.5 point total. Both teams have solid defenses but the offenses in this game are very good, too, so we should see some scoring tonight.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on November 23rd (Week 11). These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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DFS Quarterbacks
Tom Brady (16,000 FD, 11,000 DK)
Jared Goff (14,500 FD, 9,800 DK)
After his worst outing of the year against the Saints, Brady bounced back last week against Carolina to throw for 341 and three scores. He has a stable full of weapons at his disposal but will face a tough pass rush from the Rams and a solid secondary. I like the Bucs to win this game and therefore I have to lean Brady over Goff if playing only one QB tonight.
Brady's simply been better this season and has a better chance at putting up a bigger number in this one. Goff has attempted more than 40 passes just once this season (61 in the game against Miami where they trailed throughout) and averages 35 dropbacks per game. Meanwhile, Brady is averaging almost 39 dropbacks per game as Bruce Arians has shown he has no problem letting him air it out.
If you're playing the angle where the Bucs play from in front then going with Goff and some pass-catchers makes sense, especially when it should be tough to get much going in the run game against the top-rated Tampa run defense.
DFS Running Backs
Ronald Jones II (11,500 FD, 8,800 DK, 13,200 DK Captain)
RoJo went totally berserk last week for 192 yards and a touchdown. I thought he could get benched early after another fumble early in the game, but Arians stuck with him and it paid off in a big way. After it was looking like Leonard Fournette was eating into his carries and snap count, he bounced back with a season-high 23 carries and played 59% of the snaps.
While it's still a time-share, Jones is the early-down back and the guy who is going to get the goalline carries. The Rams run defense is the weakest part of an otherwise solid unit and I think we see Tampa try to establish the run throughout this game.
I didn't list any Rams running backs because I honestly don't know which of them to play or if I will play any of them. It's truly a three-headed monster right now and it's really going to limit the chance at any of them being all that productive. Yes, Henderson scored a TD last week and Malcolm Brown had two, but this is a bad matchup for this Rams' running game and the fact that all three backs are going to equally split 30 touches could make all three of them irrelevant.
DFS Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp (12,000 FD, 9,200 DK)
Josh Reynolds (9,500 FD, 6,800 DK)
Josh Reynolds is the easier play here at his price point and with how productive he has been of late. He also looks like he draws the best individual matchup against Carlton Davis, while Kupp and Woods both have much tougher matchups.
I lean Kupp over Woods if I paying up for one of them. Kupp's had the better target floor this season and operates in the slot more than Woods, which is usually where I want to attack teams that run a bunch of cover-2 zone defense.
Chris Godwin (13,000 FD, 8,400 DK)
Antonio Brown (9,000 FD, 7,800 DK)
Mike Evans had a big game last week but is likely to draw Jalen Ramsey in coverage tonight which takes me almost entirely off him and onto the other two main receivers for Tampa. Godwin is such a talent and is such a reliable target for Brady in this offense. I think he'll get a number of good looks tonight and has a good chance of doing something with them.
AB had quite a productive game in his second time in a Bucs uniform with 7 catches for 69 yards. He and Brady showed nice chemistry and he's going to be a mismatch for a lot of corners if he keeps lining up in the slot, especially when Godwin and Evans are demanding a lot of attention from safeties on the outside.
DFS Tight Ends
Rob Gronkowski (8,500 FD, 6,200 DK)
Tyler Higbee (7,500 FD, 4,800 DK)
Gronk is having quite the productive comeback season and has managed to be a relevant DFS player even while playing in an offense that is loaded at the receiver position. He caught a touchdown last week for the fourth time in five games and is always a great red-zone target for his long-time teammate, Brady.
Higbee returned from a one-game absence last week to catch three of six targets and play 84% of the snaps. This Rams offense is one that features the tight end often in the play-action passing game and Higbee is a nice value here, especially if you think Tampa covers the Rams receivers well and forces Goff to find his tight ends and running backs instead.
DFS Defense/Special Teams
Ryan Succop (9,000 FD, 4,000 DK)
Rams D/ST (3,000 DK)
Bucs D/ST (3,800 DK)
Succop has been a solid kicker all season, hitting 20/22 field goals this year for Tampa and the quality of defenses here means we could get multiple field goal attempts from kickers tonight. The Rams will have a new kicker so pay attention to whether Matt Gay or Austin MacGinnis end up being the starter.
Both defenses have the potential to create turnovers and rack up fantasy points, especially if we think both QBs end up having to try to win this game with their arms. Brady is not very mobile any more and the Rams Defense has 31 sacks on the season, including six last week against Russell Wilson.
That's all I got today, RotoBallers! Good luck in your contests and don't be afraid to shake things up as these single-game slates are full of variance!
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