Model Kombat - The Charles Schwab Challenge (2023) by Spencer Aguiar & Byron Lindeque

At RotoBaller, we are constantly searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we proudly announce our new 'Model Kombat' article, a piece that will compare some of the differences inside the projections on the site from Spencer Aguiar and Byron Lindeque.

If you would like a more in-depth answer for all players inside this week's field, we hope you consider signing up for our PGA Platinum VIP Package. There, you will find all of our amazing content for the week, including Byron's 'Stat Buffet' and Spencer's 'Rankings Wizard Model.' 

Those are two tools that we are incredibly excited to share with all golf enthusiasts, and the ability to create your own model from their information is something that we believe can generate an edge for anyone trying to dive deeper into these boards.

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Last Five Winners Of The Charles Schwab

Expected Cut-Line

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats From Byron

Key Stats From Spencer

• 50% Stats/30% Weighted Form, 20% Course History
• 25% Weighted Tee to Green
• 10% Strokes Gained Total - Short Courses
• 20% Weighted Scoring
• 10% Bogey Avoidance
• 20% Weighted Approach + Weighted Putting
• 15% Total Driving + GIR Percentage

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Just so you are not confused

Hi guys, its Byron! I hope you enjoy the heck out of this article as we are having a blast throwing kicks and low blows at each other's model rankings. In the below writeups there will be (XX%) after each stat referenced, which is the weighting attributed to a golfers ranking in my model and the bigger the % the bigger the impact on his ranking. Just wanted to clear that up before punches get thrown.

Players Spencer Is Higher On This Week

Round 1...Fight

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200)

Spencer - It is hard for me to find too many things that my model doesn't like about Tommy Fleetwood at Colonial Country Club. The Englishman is trending positively with nine consecutive made cuts and features a top-five grade for my 'pitch-and-putt' category. That metric is supposed to highlight the frequency a golfer will hit a green in regulation at this course and then make the opportunity he creates for himself. The baseline data at a generic venue does present a downshift in production because of a shaky long-term proximity number from 200+ yards. Still, the over eight percent decrease of shots from beyond that distance is one of the reasons Fleetwood finds himself skyrocketing up my sheet.

Byron - Tommy was a surprising difference between our two rankings, but I think what my model is punishing Fleetwood for, is his Bentgrass putting (10%) that ranks 93rd in a field of 120 golfers. His 51st ranked bogey avoidance (15%) is the 2nd worst of all golfers above $8,500 on this slate. With about 25% of his stat weightings sitting 51st and 93rd, it's no surprise that he sits outside the top-20 in my rankings despite his recent play.

K.H. Lee ($8,300)

Spencer - I have always been a contrarian individual regarding course history outputs. It is not as if it doesn't matter, but the general public overweighs that factor when we look at projected ownership for an event. It is worth noting that my model always runs some approximation weekly to account for past trends at a course, but we get one of these situations here where this is about as low as my model will push K.H. Lee because of his flawed finishes at the track. When running this for upside, Lee becomes a legitimate top 15 win equity option to consider. I will bet on that potential at sub-six percent ownership.

Byron - K.H. Lee grades out as 93rd in course history that makes up about 15% of my total rankings, missing two cuts in his most recent attempts, with a T64 in his first of 3 cracks at Colonial CC. Statistically, not a lot is wrong with K.H. outside of his strokes gained off the tee on courses shorter than 7,400 yards (5%) ranking 84th, and his Bentgrass putting ranking 61st.

Cameron Davis ($8,600)

Spencer - Some of the pure "statistical" totals are not as clean as my overall rank. The inaccuracy off-the-tee is something that did push Davis marginally lower when measuring a model only from a numerical sense, but the safety numbers for the Aussie did keep him inside the top 15 of all iterations of a cash-game model. It is up to everyone how aggressive they want to be with the 28-year-old in MME builds, but these club-down spots have always been advantageous for his chances.

Byron - The tricky part about running a model on a course like this, is the fact that Davis is 108th in accuracy off the tee (7%) but 6th in SG OTT on courses less than $7,400 yards. He also got off to a slow start in 2023 which I believe my 2023 approach (40% total) numbers are punishing him for, ranking 106th in good shot % (18%) and 79th in weighted strokes gained approach (17%). His last 24 rounds on approach (5%) also haven't been the best as his inconsistency has him 72nd over that span.

Vincent Norrman ($7,000)

Spencer - This feels like one of those spots where something has to give. The long-term numbers don't have a ton to pull from when looking at Vincent Norrman's history on these plodder tracks, although the boost my model is encountering stems from him making three of his past four cuts. Norrman does slip to 59th overall when we only look at the data and ignore outside factors.

Byron - Despite his 21st ranked SG OTT (8%) Norrman is getting dinged for his 79th ranked accuracy (7%) and 84th ranked shorter course SG OTT grading out as 101st (5%). He is also 118th in weighted good shot % (18%) and 107th in weighted SG APP (17%), with his L24 approach (5%) moving in the right direction but still around field average at 58th. Him being 81st in bogey avoidance (15%) also doesn't help his cause.

Matthew NeSmith ($7,000)

Spencer - Here are the 10 golfers that see the most considerable boosts in expectation inside my model when looking at the top 50 players at a short track versus a random course on tour. Those names would be J.T. Poston, Russell Henley, Brian Harman, Thomas Detry, Greyson Sigg, Lee Hodges, J.J. Spaun, Matthew NeSmith, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Alex Smalley. NeSmith's form is trending with four consecutive made cuts, and I wouldn't overlook a golfer that does grade as a value in this min-$7,000 section.

Byron - NeSmith grades out exceptionally well across all 5 of my approach categories but has a few duds in the course history (15%) at 81st, medium course scoring 85th (5%), SG OTT <7,400 is 84th (5%). His Bentgrass putting is 108th (10%) and he struggles to avoid bogeys with a ranking of 70th (15%). Even with solid approach play, the other areas of his game are letting him down for me.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Players Byron Is Higher On This Week

Round 2...Fight

Ryan Fox ($7,500)

Byron - This is a weird scenario, as my model has no PGA Tour stats available for Fox, so I manually adjusted him to sit just outside the top 20. This ranking makes sense to me as he is the 41st ranked golfer in the world, who has gained the 18th most strokes over the last 24 rounds in this field, with most of them coming on US soil.

Spencer - I fear that Ryan Fox will lose his greatest strength of distance at Colonial Country Club. The weighted tee-to-green numbers are okay for an adequately priced and low-owned golfer, but we have yet to receive many long-term indicators that Fox plays better at a club-down venue. My model has him ranked 76th in this field at short courses that would mimic this location, and his 87th-place grade for total driving + GIR percentage adds to the trepidation.

Justin Lower ($6,100)

Byron - Although he is ranked 72nd in my model (not great), he is priced $6,100 which provides us with relative value in DFS. Lower's sole claim to fame of the 72nd roster spot is his Bentgrass putting that ranks 3rd in the field (10%). Everything else is relatively bad although his last 10 rounds since the RBC Heritage have been much better, averaging +0.78 per round on approach.

Spencer - You just need to know what you are getting into here with Justin Lower. The approach play has turned around recently, generating four consecutive starts gaining with his irons, but Lower remains a boom-or-bust target that would be MME-only for me because of his sinkhole of a floor. The upside totals in my model do like his potential, but the American sees the issues form when looking into his 107th-place safety rating.

Greyson Sigg ($6,300)

Byron - This dude embodies the phrase "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts". Grayson Sigg hits the 22nd most good shots (18%) in this field and then every other metric gets very "slightly above average". Outside of his course history (15%) and L24 SG Total (10%), every other metric that is weighted in the model is better than 59th, which, by definition, is above average. His bogey avoidance (15%) is 43rd, his SG APP (17%) is 55th, Bentgrass putting (10%) being 48th, and his accuracy off the tee (7%) and SG OTT <7,400 (5%) clocking in at 44th and 49th respectively. He is just solid across the board. Who would have thought my longest writeup would have been about Grayson Sigg?

Spencer - I have a few interesting things to note about Greyson Sigg. As you can tell, my 53rd-place rank is not too shabby either for a golfer priced at $6,300. That number sees an increase to 35th when ignoring form and course history and only shooting for pure upside with the data. However, the reason Byron has Sigg graded higher stems thoroughly from the four missed cuts in his last five starts that pushed him down my sheet. That total sees an even more significant decrease when trying to find safety for this event at his 86th-place rank, but it just comes down to what game structure you are considering him for this week. I'd be out in single-entry or cash. I'd view him as a dart throw in an MME.

Adam Schenk ($6,800)

Byron - The biggest impact of Adam Schenk's profile on this ranking discrepancy, is his 19th ranked Bentgrass putting (10%). He grades out as the 33rd best golfer on medium courses (5%) and his bogey avoidance (15%) is 48th. Those three categories were enough to bump him up to 57th in my model.

Spencer - Outside of Michael Block, Adam Schenk was my second-largest disparity this week in DraftKings value. My model viewed him as a stone-min $6,000 target that landed as one of my head-to-head options this week when I took Ben Griffin -120 over him in a full-tournament matchup. Schenk experienced a 39-spot decrease in projected tee-to-green for Colonial over his expectation at a random tournament, and the weighted proximity encountered the same slip when I looked into his 23-position fall for this course.

J.T. Poston ($7,200)

Byron - J.T. Poston hitting the 28th most good shots (18%) is part of the reason he sits 33rd in my model. A much better stat of his although for less weighting, is his Bentgrass putting (10%) of 19th in the field. He is also the 31st most accurate golfer playing this week, with most of his other stats averaging to about 47th in the field. Just a solid stat profile for me.

Spencer - I don't love the ownership of a golfer that has missed three of five cuts here to go along with multiple top-20 finishes. I get the intrigue on his upside and even talked a little about him being one of the most significant climbers for me at a short course, but there are probably other $7,000 targets I prefer playing that aren't going to be so boom-or-bust. I would feel much better about taking a shot if ownership landed sub-five percent. I don't want to find myself playing 15%+ of J.T. Poston to create leverage.

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