X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Pitcher Prospect Graduates - Sophomore Fantasy Baseball Outlooks (AL West)

George Kirby - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

In the third installment of a 6-part series focused on pitchers who exhausted rookie eligibility during the 2022 MLB season, I review how the pitching fundamentals of select American League West pitchers have evolved and use that information to forecast their MLB futures.

Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) pitcher evaluation model.

Let us begin with individual analyses of three key American League West 2022 pitcher prospect graduates: George Kirby, Matt Brash, and Reid Detmers.

Featured Promo: Get your 2023 MLB Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our preseason Draft Kit, #1 accuracy rankings, #1 ATC projections, Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Quick Overview of FaBIO

An earlier RotoBaller article more fully explains the FaBIO methodology. Every plate appearance is sorted into one of 12 event-type bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull OFFB, Center OFFB, Oppo OFFB, Pull LD, Center LD, Oppo LD, Pull GB, Center GB, Oppo GB) and the pitcher is charged with league's average runs value for that event type.

We eventually wind up with loads of fundamentals-rooted percentile ratings expressed on a 100 to 0 scale where 97 is plus plus, 84 is plus, 50 is average, 16 is minus, and three is minus minus.

The all-in-one Overall Rating (based on expected run avoidance per batter faced over all of that pitcher's batters faced) will be used primarily as filtering criteria with relatively more attention paid to how the three core sub-Ratings of Control (or CTL, based on BB+HBP per batters faced), Strikeout (or K, based on K per batters faced), and Batted Ball Profile (based on expected run avoidance per batted ball) combine to produce Overall Rating.

 

George Kirby, Seattle Mariners

George Kirby - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Ahead of the lost-to-pandemic 2020 MiLB season, the main concern with the hard-throwing George Kirby was that the pitching profile had long leaned too much toward control (which explains only 22% of the variation in expected run allowance that OVERALL aspires to quantify) and not enough toward pure out-generation fundamentals like strikeouts and batted ball profile. By then only once in MiLB and NCAA had he posted a fully plus rating at either K or BATTED BALL PROFILE. Also worrisome was that the MiLB debut and three NCAA seasons all featured forward batter handedness splits (OHB OVERALL<SHB OVERALL) that projected him vulnerable as a starter to managers stacking lineups with lefthanded batters. Kirby largely dispensed worries over how his stuff played versus opposite-handed batters in the 2021 return of MiLB play but the FaBIO profile continued to lean CTL-first.

Though Kirby posted stout enough fundamentals in MLB spring games to break camp with the squad he was reassigned to AA. There he posted near-perfect out-generation fundamentals over five sparsely-spaced starts (100 OVERALL, 89 CTL, 99 K, 100 BATTED BALL PROFILE) before punching a May ticket to the MLB rotation. Kirby leaned heavier on his trademark strike-throwing while cutting his big league SP teeth but the out-generation fundamentals gradually rose and so much so that his profile skewed CTL-last in the regular-season second half (99 Overall, 80 CTL/88 K/99 BATTED BALL PROFILE). Wire-to-wire Kirby finished an impressive rookie season with the 7th highest OVERALL Rating (94) among American League starting pitcher qualifiers (four of the six higher were from this division, three from Astros).

Kirby seems to have his batted ball profile on par with control owing to a unique ability to ride a fastball for IFFB (on full display during his ALDS start versus Astros when mid-afternoon shadows favored that plan) while still leaning toward sinking to running another one for groundballs. His hard movement is hardly limited to up-down either and if that holds he will be an MLB SP for a very long time. Certainly, there is potential for him in future seasons to finish FaBIO triple plus with all of CTL, K, and BATTED BALL PROFILE plus or better.

Perhaps the biggest concern for 2023 may be that Kirby just faced 680 batters between MiLB and the MLB regular season and playoffs after only experiencing 274 batters in 2021 MiLB. That he stands to face a couple more batters per start this time around could limit 2023 gains in K Rating versus the 2022 mark. Else he represents an all arrows up starting pitcher ahead and more so as a dynasty league core starting pitcher per a rare ability to star in multiple performance dimensions simultaneously.

 

Matt Brash, Seattle Mariners

Matt Brash rode a fabulous K, BATTED BALL PROFILE, and Oppo-Handed Batters outcomes 2021 A+ and AA SP season into the Mariners MLB bullpen for that season's final week but never took the mound. He tandem-started with Kirby in 2022 MLB spring games and ultimately won an opening day roster starting rotation spot via spot-on fundamentals. CTL went very south very quickly as MLB batters refused to chase his best offerings and that had Brash soon back in the minors being groomed for a 2022 MLB relief role. After early speedbumps the quality of AAA RP outcomes surged; the final AAA line had triple plus K sandwiched by average CTL and average batted ball profile (undermined by Pull OFFB).

Brash's MLB second half went much better as a short RP to the tune of an 84 OVERALL earned via 22 CTL/93 K/ 78 BATTED BALL PROFILE route; that strong finish earned him a high-leverage postseason RP spot and he rated well then, too (10 BF, 96 OVERALL, 100 CTL/99 K/10 BATTED BALL PROFILE).

The slighter, efforty Brash long contradictorily had the aesthetic look of a short reliever while sporting the fundamentals of a starter. Mariners have kicked around the idea of re-starter-ing Brash, who now has two option years at the ready for such an experiment. Yet for that to be advisable Brash ought first to demonstrate a combination of batted ball profile, control, and opposite-handed batter outcomes in an MLB relief role that is superior to what he has shown to date.

In 2023 fantasy baseball Brash stands to deliver K in volume as a high-leverage short RP weapon that should convey a mix of holds, saves, and stray wins. Dynasty owners should value Brash higher than redraft leaguers do owing to the range of future closer to starter possibilities and being better positioned to wait out any further minor league development that may be required.

 

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels

Reid Detmers fantasy baseball rankings MLB prospects

Reid Detmers, the 10th overall pick of the 2020 MLB Draft, was the focus of a preseason writeup I did on flyballer lefthanded starting pitcher prospects.

Detmers rode extreme K success in MLB spring training games to a 2023 Opening Day rotation spot with the Angels. Among my voiced concerns was that Detmers would be unable to maintain the K success he had in MiLB and NCAA owing to the extreme level of aerial batted ball risk that came with an always upstairs approach in MLB. As I speculated Detmers ultimately did make an approach adjustment that sacrificed K to rather heavily dilute volumes of OFFB and Pull OFFB (each rated above 50, shockingly). He might have paired his 64 K Rating with a league-average BATTED BALL PROFILE if not for that he was especially prone to line drives per a 9 LD Avoid (that also suggests he was very fortunate to have finished with a 67 AVG Avoid on Batted Balls).

Though stories were written to laud a strong finish to 2022 post-All-Star-Break FaBIO Ratings (45 Overall, 37 CTL/82 K/11 Batted Ball Profile) do not inspire the same level of enthusiasm. His strikeouts and batted ball profile stand to be rather seesaw phenomena in that as one improves the other declines. At best FaBIO K and BATTED BALL RATINGS might combine to something in the neighborhood of 120 percentile points of the maximum 200 possible. The MLB SP ceiling on CTL Rating is lower than forecast in that the more he fills the strike zone the K will decrease and the batted ball contact will get louder via some combination of outfield flyballs and line drives.

Angels should derive MLB SP3 to SP4 value from Detmers over the next several seasons. In the realm of fantasy baseball Detmers fits best on a pitching staff that needs strikeouts and is else better able to tolerate an elevated risk of inferior outcomes on batted balls.

 

Other AL West Pitcher Prospect Graduates

Tucker Davidson had miserable CTL and K Ratings in a dozen 2022 MLB starts with Braves and Angels, slots behind Detmers and 3 others on the Angels LHSP depth chart, and is out of options. Look for Astros to deploy Seth Martinez in an RHB-leaning weak contact specialist role before a host of other RHRPs who stand to collect most of the bullpen's holds, saves, and wins. Penn Murfee began his MLB debut hot but wound up sporting a CTL-first profile.

Rookie since '19 Brock Burke had a nice CTL+K season as a big-volume 6 BF/G LHRP but struggled to avoid LD + Pull OFFB just as he had in 2021 AAA. Glenn Otto logged 587 BF in 2022 MLB but K fell one standard deviation and CTL fell two more after promising marks at those fundamentals in a 111-batter late 2021 MLB debut. He and Cole Ragans each have 3 option years remaining and Rangers should make use of the first barring much-improved spring K Ratings from the duo.

Athletics successfully outrighted Daulton Jefferies to AAA after surgery for his latest malady, thoracic outlet syndrome. After a breakout 2021 AA and AAA campaign as a Blue Jays farmhand the 2022 fundamentals of Zach Logue were poor and eerily similar in AAA and MLB. Adrian Martinez is solid enough at everything to eat innings in volume as a back-of-rotation MLB SP but for that to transpire AVG and ISO on Batted Balls Ratings must better parallel LD Avoid, OFFB Avoid, and Pull OFFB Avoid Ratings.

March 2022 trade acquisition Adam Oller could not land K as an MLB SP despite adopting a very four-seams-up batted ball profile at the level. Lefty JP Sears had been extremely successful at K and CTL while working 15 to 17 BF/G as a Yankees farmhand but owed most of an MLB debut 61 OVERALL to what seems like an unsustainable combination of IFFB and LD Avoid.

Domingo Acevedo profiles as a league-average MLB RP who leans mostly on CTL, IFFB+LD Avoid (AVG Avoid), and Same-Handed Batter outcomes.  Zach Jackson shifted to a 4-seams-up philosophy in a 2022 MLB RP debut and successfully collected K+IFFB while disproportionately (unsustainably) biasing his OFFB away from the pull-third around lots of walks; some amalgam of his 2021 MiLB and 2022 MLB FaBIO profiles would cast him as a higher-leverage 2023 MLB short RHRP who provides good fantasy production at little cost.

Eleven saves again or more from Dany Jimenez seems unlikely barring substantial gains in K and Opposite-Handed Batter outcomes. FaBIO profile from the 2022 Rockies MLB debut of groundballer Chad Smith very resembles the 2021 AAA one save for reversals of OHB/SHB Overalls and AVG and ISO fortunes. Kirby Snead posted plus K Ratings in 2021 AAA and 2022 AAA but could only manage a 6 K Rating over 210 MLB batters faced in 2022.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Casey O'Neill20 mins ago

Takes First Defeat Against Former Champion
Jennifer Maia24 mins ago

Earns Decision Win Over Undefeated Opponent
Roman Dolidze26 mins ago

Suffers Setback With Decision Loss
Marvin Vettori34 mins ago

Picks Up Decision Win
Jhon Romero1 hour ago

Guardians Sign Jhon Romero To Minor-League Deal
Yu Chang2 hours ago

Held Up By Visa Issues
Brayan Bello2 hours ago

Looks Good In Spring Debut
Eury Perez2 hours ago

Reassigned To Minor-League Camp
Michael Soroka2 hours ago

To Make Spring Debut Wednesday
Matt Vierling2 hours ago

Playing Monday Against Blue Jays
Michael Lorenzen2 hours ago

Scratched With Groin Tightness
Kyle Busch2 hours ago

Finishes In Top 10 At Atlanta
Justin Turner2 hours ago

Back In Spring Lineup Monday
Ty Gibbs3 hours ago

Finishes Strong In Atlanta
Erik Jones3 hours ago

Gets His First Top-10 Finish Of The Season
Ryan Blaney3 hours ago

Bounces Back From Speeding Penalty
Denny Hamlin3 hours ago

Has A Strong Showing
Austin Reaves4 hours ago

Becomes Unlikely Hero Sunday
Giannis Antetokounmpo4 hours ago

Picks Up A Triple-Double Sunday
Jalen Green4 hours ago

Scores Game-High 40 Points Sunday
Jimmy Butler4 hours ago

Gets A Double-Double With Assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander4 hours ago

Drops 40 Points On Phoenix
Jacob deGrom4 hours ago

Looks Impressive In Spring Debut
Devin Booker4 hours ago

Goes Off For 46 Points
Nikola Jokic5 hours ago

Returns To Triple-Double Form
Jake Fraley5 hours ago

Should Be Fine After Fouling Ball Off Leg
Jesper Bratt5 hours ago

Hits A Hat Trick Against Tampa Bay
K'Andre Miller5 hours ago

Racks Up Four First-Period Points
Nolan Arenado5 hours ago

Expected To Be Fine After HBP
Jaroslav Halak5 hours ago

Keeps Predators Quiet With 22 Saves
Austin Nola5 hours ago

May Have Broken Nose In Cactus League Game
Alex Pietrangelo5 hours ago

Hands Out Four Assists
Jack Eichel5 hours ago

Nets A Hat Trick In Big Win
Matthew Boldy5 hours ago

Extends Points Streak With A Hat Trick
Jhoan Duran5 hours ago

Suffers Leg Contusion On Sunday
Jake DeBrusk5 hours ago

Erupts For Four Points Sunday
Jeremy Swayman6 hours ago

Registers Another Shutout
Tyler Reddick7 hours ago

Hangs in For Fifth Place At Atlanta
Juan Soto8 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Mild Oblique Strain
Corey Lajoie15 hours ago

Corey LaJoie Uses Course To Advantage On Sunday
Christopher Bell15 hours ago

Ends Up With Another Top Five Result
Naz Reid15 hours ago

Is Questionable On Monday
Christopher Bell15 hours ago

Brad Keselowski Noses Christopher Bell Out For Second
Bennedict Mathurin15 hours ago

Questionable To Make Return On Monday
Joey Logano15 hours ago

Goes From Pole To Win Sunday
Kevin Huerter15 hours ago

Uncertain For Monday's Game Against Utah
Kevon Looney16 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Monday
Rudy Gobert16 hours ago

Receives Questionable Tag For Monday
Jalen Duren16 hours ago

Exits In Third Quarter Against Miami
Detroit Lions16 hours ago

C.J. Gardner-Johnson On The Move To Detroit
Scottie Barnes16 hours ago

Exits On Sunday With Wrist Injury
Courtland Sutton16 hours ago

Broncos Unwilling To Deal Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy
Adam Thielen17 hours ago

Agrees To Deal With Carolina
P.J. Tucker18 hours ago

Questionable For Monday
Anthony Edwards19 hours ago

Questionable Versus Knicks
Jaren Jackson20 hours ago

Jr. Questionable For Monday
Lauri Markkanen20 hours ago

Questionable Monday With Back Injury
Kyrie Irving20 hours ago

Questionable To Play Monday
Luka Doncic20 hours ago

Listed As Questionable To Play Monday
Ja Morant20 hours ago

Will Remain Out Monday Versus Dallas
Andrew Vaughn22 hours ago

Took Grounders On Sunday
Seiya Suzuki22 hours ago

Continues Making Progress
Max Kepler22 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday
Brandon Pfaadt22 hours ago

Reassigned To Minors
Glenn Otto22 hours ago

To Undergo MRI
Ricky Tiedemann22 hours ago

Throws On Saturday
Jurickson Profar23 hours ago

Signs With Rockies
Roope Hintz1 day ago

Delivers Three Assists
Brandon Hagel1 day ago

Celebrates A Hat Trick Against Montreal
Igor Shesterkin1 day ago

Shuts Out The Penguins
Sebastian Aho1 day ago

Completes A Hat Trick In Overtime
Evander Kane1 day ago

Pots A Hat Trick Versus Seattle
Brad Marchand1 day ago

Tallies Three Assists Saturday
Nathan MacKinnon1 day ago

Has Three Points Against Detroit
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

Starts 23rd
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Starts 24th At The AmBetter Health 400
AJ Allmendinger2 days ago

Eyes Another Strong Finish
NASCAR2 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse Eyes Back-To-Back Superspeedway Wins
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

May Be Overlooked
Erik Jones2 days ago

Is A Value Play At Atlanta
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Seeks Better Results
Noah Gragson2 days ago

Might Surprise At Atlanta Motor Speedway
Austin Dillon2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Atlanta
Ty Dillon2 days ago

Hoping To Keep Car Running At Atlanta
Pittsburgh Steelers2 days ago

Isaac Seumalo Signs Three-Year Deal With Steelers
NASCAR2 days ago

J.J. Yeley Starts 34th Sunday At Ambetter Health 400
Foster Moreau2 days ago

Visits With Saints
Roman Josi2 days ago

Exits With Injury Saturday
Joonas Korpisalo2 days ago

Hopes To Stay Perfect With His New Team
Mads Sogaard2 days ago

Looking For Form Against Toronto
Brian Elliott2 days ago

Starts For Tampa On Saturday
Jonathan Drouin2 days ago

Will Play Saturday
Mark Giordano2 days ago

Rested On Saturday
Odell Beckham Jr.2 days ago

Denies $20 Million Price Tag
Cincinnati Bengals3 days ago

Nick Scott Agrees To Contract With Cincinnati
Tennessee Titans3 days ago

Kevin Byard Refuses Pay Cut
Foster Moreau3 days ago

Has Visit With The Bengals
Kamaru Usman3 days ago

Seeking Second Title Run
Leon Edwards3 days ago

Looks To Defend Crown On Saturday
Cameron Brate3 days ago

Buccaneers Officially Release Cameron Brate
Isaiah McKenzie3 days ago

Bills Release Isaiah McKenzie Friday
Marcus Mariota3 days ago

Joins Eagles
Mike Gesicki3 days ago

Patriots Sign Mike Gesicki
Robert Tonyan4 days ago

Agrees To Deal With The Bears
Philadelphia Eagles4 days ago

Darius Slay Signs Extension With Philadelphia
D'Onta Foreman4 days ago

Heading To Chicago
Drew Lock4 days ago

Seahawks Agree To One-Year Contract
Gardner Minshew4 days ago

Colts Agree To Bring In Gardner Minshew
Darius Slayton4 days ago

Giants Bring Back Darius Slayton
DJ Chark4 days ago

Visiting With Panthers Friday
Gardner Minshew4 days ago

Colts Looking Into Gardner Minshew
Rafael Fiziev4 days ago

Earns Huge Co-Main-Event Showdown
Justin Gaethje4 days ago

Set For Another Co-Main-Event Showdown
Jordan Spieth5 days ago

Trying To Pay Off Recent Form With A Win
Victor Perez5 days ago

Making A Rare Start On The PGA Tour
Maverick McNealy5 days ago

Still Shaking Off The Rust In Florida
Mark Hubbard5 days ago

Coming Off Strong Players Championship Result
Nate Lashley5 days ago

Finding Some Form To Start 2023
Wyndham Clark5 days ago

A Dangerous Name At The Valspar Championship
Justin Lower5 days ago

Looking To Capitalize On Weaker Field
Byeong-Hun An5 days ago

Flashing Vintage Form
Stewart Cink5 days ago

Looks To Stay Afloat At Valspar
Ben Taylor5 days ago

A Short-Game Wizard
Gary Woodland5 days ago

Has A Poisoned Putter
Martin Laird5 days ago

Playing Scared
Russell Knox5 days ago

Putting Putridly
PGA5 days ago

Adam Hadwin Looks To Continue Valspar Success
Justin Thomas5 days ago

Hopes To Get Putter Going At Valspar
Keegan Bradley5 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valspar
Eric Cole5 days ago

Continues To Play Well
Matthew NeSmith5 days ago

Could Be Considered At Valspar
PGA5 days ago

J.T. Poston Not An Option At Valspar Championship
Davis Riley5 days ago

Overvalued At Valspar Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick5 days ago

Has Risk At Valspar