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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a weird collection of Sunday pitching matchups, and a few postponed games due to positive Covid tests. The result is a light betting card (for now) that I don't have extreme confidence in. Regardless, it's still baseball on a Sunday afternoon, so what can we possible have to complain about?! Come find me on Twitter @BellRoto throughout the day to see if I add any other bets as lineups (and a few more lines) become available.
Steve Janik already got us started with two great betting articles to start the year, so this is where I pick up! All season long we'll be supplying you MLB betting articles with a few of our favorite picks for the day in baseball. Along with the picks, we'll give a little write-up with some supporting evidence for the picks, and we'll keep track of our records throughout the course of the season. You can always find my updated picks for the day as well as my running tally @BellRoto on Twitter. I'll also do my best to post my picks there on my "Off Days" for this series.
- Saturday, August 1st: 1-2
- 2020 Season Total: 21-21
Without further ado, let's get to the picks for today's slate. Please make sure to follow me on Twitter @BellRoto, as I'll post any updates and/or additions to these picks there throughout the day. I'll also field any questions or comments on Twitter as well as in our Premium RotoBaller Slack Chat under the Sports Betting channel. Here we go!
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New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (-120)
O/U: 11
NYM: David Peterson, ATL: Kyle Wright
Not a huge sample size to go off here, but I do think we have a much more talented pitcher in Wright than we do in Peterson. While the Mets' fill-in for Marcus Stroman did impress in his debut at Fenway last week, he's still the guy who sported a 4.19 ERA in AA ball last season. The new southpaw narrative only goes so far, and I think the Braves bats get him figured out their second time through the lineup Sunday.
Meanwhile, Kyle Wright got roughed up in the third inning of his debut last week, but we saw a glimpse of what made him a top prospect, that nasty slider. The Mets have been known to strikeout in bunches, and I don't think Wright has to be lights out to get a win in this one. Give me the Braves in what should be something like a 7-4 game.
Pick: Braves ML (-120) 1 Unit
Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs (-180)
O/U: TBD
PIT: Steven Brault, NYM: Jon Lester
It never feels right betting my hometown Pirates, but I truly think they manage to pick up a game in Chicago before they head out of town. This unique combo of Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl might give them their best shot. Brault looked good in his two innings before a rain delay last week, and then Kuhl picked up just as Pirates fans hoped he would, after injury-riddled seasons the past two years. If Brault can throw 3-4 one-run innings, Kuhl should be able to do the same, and hopefully get to the back end of the Pirates bullpen, where they can avoid the no-name relievers and get straight to Nick Burdi.
That means this Pirates offense will have to score 3-4 runs off of Jon Lester and company for us to feel safe, and that has proven to be a struggle in the past. I have no significant data that says this team will fare better against Lester than past Pirates lineups, but these bats have to wake up at some point, right? Kevin Newman, Bryan Reynolds, Josh Bell, and Adam Frazier can't all stay cold at the same time. Let's hope a couple of them warm up in a Chicago matinee, and the underdog carries us to a nice 1.55 unit win. Good luck!
Again, check back on my Twitter account @BellRoto to see any games that I add later on as lineups come out. Talk to you all tomorrow!
Pick: Pirates ML (+155) 1 Unit
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