Midseason Report Card - Starting Pitchers

July 17, 2021

Jamie Steed's midseason fantasy baseball report card for starting pitchers - whether they are SP risers, fallers and their fantasy projections for the rest of 2021.

Back in late April, I published the early season report card. It was a look at how the top drafted starting pitchers began their seasons and what we could expect from them moving forward. We provided an early-season grade and a projected rest of season grade based on their early results and how they were projected to perform compared to their ADP. You can find that here.

Considering drafts last preseason saw an unprecedented number of starting pitchers being taken early, fantasy leagues will be won and lost more than ever based on how a team's early-round pitching performs. Now we've reached the official "midway" point of the season, it's a perfect time to revisit how they've got on up to this point and give them a midseason grade. We can see if they are justifying their early ADP and assess if they will have provided value by the season's end.

All ADP data is taken from NFBC (1,380 live drafts) and we're going to assess the first 12 starting pitchers taken according to their ADP. In true report card fashion, we'll have a quick look at their performances and grade their work so far compared to where they were drafted. We'll also offer a projected grade for what the rest of the season might look like for them. And we'll revisit the grades at the end of the 2021 campaign. You will have noticed one missing Dodgers pitcher who I'm not going to discuss so we're actually just covering 11 starting pitchers.

Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

ADP: 5.23
Early Season Grade: A+
GP 15, W-L 7-2, IP 92.0, K 146, ERA 1.08, WHIP 0.54

So far, deGrom is on pace for a historical season. His 1.08 ERA is on course to be the lowest of any qualified starting pitcher since 1914 when Dutch Leonard finished the year with a 0.96 ERA. Due to a couple of niggling injuries and the Mets experiencing more postponements than other teams to begin 2021 (having played in 10 double-headers already), deGrom has only managed 15 starts. That's limited him to 92.0 innings (a little more than six innings per start on average), which is only 54th-most in MLB.

Despite that, he's had more strikeouts than everyone except the next name on this list. He's tallied double-digit strikeouts in seven starts and has 11 quality starts having not allowed more than three earned runs in any outing so far. It shouldn't come as any surprise that deGrom has the highest K% among any qualified pitcher (45.1%), the second-best BB% (3.4%) and the lowest batting average allowed (.125). That 45.1% K% will also set an MLB record for the highest strikeout rate in any season among qualified pitchers since 1916 (earliest official recording of K%). It was somewhat symbolic he became the second quickest pitcher to reach 1,500 strikeouts with a 100 MPH fastball earlier this month.

Midseason Grade: A+

It's easy to think deGrom won't be able to maintain his ERA for the remainder of the season and perhaps that's true. He has a 1.50 xERA, 1.61 xFIP and 1.70 SIERA. In the last 50 years, no qualified starting pitcher has had an ERA of 1.50 or better in a season, only Dwight Gooden (1985) and Greg Maddux (1994) have had an ERA better than 1.61 in a season and only six occasions has a 1.70 ERA or better been achieved (once being Bieber's 2020 season).

The only thing which might hold back deGrom is if the Mets choose to be a bit careful with him later in the season if they do manage to secure the NL East division, especially given the little injury issues which cropped up in the first half. It may be clutching at straws, and even then, deGrom has still shown he can put up numbers worthy of being the number one starting pitcher even if he misses two or three starts.

Rest of Season Grade: A+

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees

ADP: 7.21
Early Season Grade: A
GP 18, W-L 9-4, IP 114.0, K 147, ERA 2.68, WHIP 0.93

Much has been made of Gerrit Cole and the MLB's crackdown on "sticky stuff." That's understandable given Cole had a 2.31 ERA prior to MLB announcing their clampdown on pitchers using sticky substances. Following that date (June 21), Cole's next three starts totaled 15.1 IP  and saw him give up 11 earned runs (6.46 ERA). Eight of his 22 walks allowed this year came in those three starts and also included his shortest outing since 2016 when he allowed four runs in 3.1 IP from six hits and three walks against the Mets.

Just when we thought all hope was lost, Cole turned in his best performance as a Yankee. Against the Astros, Cole threw a complete game shutout on a career-high 129 pitches while striking out 12. It marked the first time since May 12th (10 starts) in which Cole struck out 10 or more batters in an outing, something he achieved five times in his first eight starts.

Midseason Grade: A-

Of course, there will be lingering concerns about how much impact the sticky stuff (or lack of it) will have on Cole's performances moving forward. However, last Saturday should act as a reminder of what he can still do on the mound. There's been plenty of chatter about the declining spin-rate since the MLB clampdown occurred (not just for Cole) but I recall something Tyler Glasnow said when interviewed after getting injured following a stoppage of sticky substance use. He referred to how he had to start throwing pitches differently to counter not having any grip enhancement which he believed caused his injury. It's quite likely that other pitchers have taken notice and will be tweaking their mechanics or grips slightly as a result of this. Doing that in-season will lead to results like we've seen from Cole and we could possibly see a few more bumps in the road over the coming weeks.

This is, of course, conjecture and we still only have three weeks of starts since the MLB clampdown so it's too early to see how exactly things play out from here. Last weekend could go a long way to relieving any concerns you may have.

Rest of Season Grade: B+

Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians

ADP: 9.99
Early Season Grade: A
GP 14, W-L 7-4, IP 90.2, K 130, ERA 3.28, WHIP 1.25

Bieber's first half came to an abrupt end when he was placed on the IL with a right shoulder strain on June 14th. Given he had a 1.63 ERA and 0.87 WHIP last year, his numbers in 2021 may be considered a bit of a disappointment. However, at the time of him going on the IL, Bieber led the league in innings pitched and strikeouts. His seven wins (50% win rate) from his 14 starts are also tied second of everyone on this list, so he was still putting up useful numbers in fantasy. His ERA so far in 2020 is the same as his 2021 season, and despite missing four weeks, his 11 quality starts this year is still tied for 13th overall.

Considering the numbers he put up in 14 games, it's hard to grade Bieber's first half too harshly. Only one pitcher on this list was drafted after Bieber and has more strikeouts, so it's still been a productive first half from the Cleveland ace despite missing four starts.

Midseason Grade: B+

All that being said, I still have a bit of a concern for the rest of the season. There are positive signs for Bieber, like his 2.87 xFIP and his .337 BABIP, both suggesting he's been unlucky. However, his other Statcast profile numbers aren't so promising.

The strikeout numbers are great, but his 8.6% BB% is way up on his career mark of 5.1% entering the season and his other expected stats are significantly worse compared to his peers. While being in the 65th percentile for xwOBA isn't bad, deGrom is in the 100th percentile and Cole is in the 92nd percentile. There's a similar story for xSLG and xBA with deGrom being in the 98th and 100th percentile and Cole being in the 72nd and 85th percentile respectively. Bieber still seems weeks away from a return rather than days as he's yet to start throwing a baseball so early-mid August looks like the best-case scenario for his return right now.

Rest of Season Grade: C+

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

ADP: 17.76
Early Season Grade: B+
GP 18, W-L 7-3, IP 105.0, K 125, ERA 3.09, WHIP 1.00

Darvish ended his first half in a similar manner to how he started the season. On Opening Day, he allowed four earned runs in 4.2 IP. Heading into the All-Star Break, Darvish lasted just three innings while allowing six earned runs on eight hits against the Nationals. That saw his ERA move above 3.00 for the first time since April.

Given Darvish had a 2.01 ERA in the shortened 2020 season but a combined 3.98 ERA in 2019, it's somewhat satisfying his ERA currently sits almost right in the middle of the two. His 29.8% K% is almost exactly his career number (29.9%) and he has managed to lower his BB% to 5.7% this year (8.6% career BB% prior to this year). Considering he's had 10 quality starts, only picking up seven wins on a team with a 53-40 record is a disappointment, albeit out of his control.

Midseason Grade: B+

Darvish doesn't seem to offer any real concern for the rest of the season. While he does have a 3.76 xFIP, his SIERA is 3.35 and 3.12 xERA. The discrepancy is in part due to his ability to keep the ball in the park with a 10.5% HR/FB and 1.11 HR/9 rates. Maybe the "deadened ball" is helping, but the move from Wrigley Field to Petco Park better explains the drop. According to ESPN's Park Factors, Wrigley's 1.159 home run factor benefited hitters (10th overall), while Petco ranks 19th with a 0.908 factor (with 1.000 being equal for pitchers and hitters).

Despite having a career-high 47.7% FB% (according to Fangraphs), the fact Darvish is walking fewer batters and has a .209 batting average against him (lowest since 2013) means he is limiting damage. He's also limited regular hard contact so far which should hold him in good stead for the second half (as we can see below). He did go on the IL immediately prior to the All-Star Break with hip inflammation which may have explained his bad outing and it's unclear as to how long he'll be out as of now. Nothing has come out of San Diego to suggest it's serious or that he'll miss much time.

Rest of Season Grade: B+

Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox

ADP: 18.19
Early Season Grade: C-
GP 18, W-L 7-6, IP 104.0, K 125, ERA 4.15, WHIP 1.17

Giolito's 2021 season has been a little unsightly so far. His 4.15 ERA isn't what you'd expect from a pitcher taken in the second round of drafts, but he has a matching 3.56 xERA, xFIP and SIERA (which is pretty remarkable in itself). Following his May 14th start against the Royals in which he allowed five earned runs over six innings, Giolito had a 4.97 ERA. The fact that it's now almost below four should be encouraging. His seven starts since June combined for a 4.79 ERA too, so outside of the three dominant starts he made in between those two spells, inconsistency has blighted him so far.

Giolito has only seven quality starts, yet still has managed seven wins which is a testament to the White Sox offense (ranked fourth in runs scored in MLB with 456). That 10 of his 18 starts have come against divisional rivals when three of the four teams in the AL Central rank in the bottom half of runs scored in the American League tells us he really should be having a better year than he has so far.

Midseason Grade: C

It's strange to think of Giolito as having been inconsistent given his xERA, xFIP and SIERA are exactly the same. His xwOBA, xSLG and xBA are all between the 57th and 67th percentile too, so his numbers are consistent even if the results haven't been. However, consistent doesn't always mean good and a 4.15 ERA is a step back for someone who combined for a 3.43 ERA in 2019-20.

There still remains reason for optimism given those underlying numbers are all much better than his actual ERA. If we compare them to his 2019 season in which Giolito had a 3.43 xERA, 3.66 xFIP and 3.57 SIERA while compiling a 3.41 ERA over 176.2 IP, I'm bullish that he can still end the year with an ERA between 3.60-3.75. Given his strikeout numbers (29.4% K%) and WHIP, that could still leave him around the fringes of being a top-12 starting pitcher.

Rest of Season Grade: B-

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 22.05
Early Season Grade: B+
GP 18, W-L 9-1, IP 114.1, K 114, ERA 2.36, WHIP 0.92

A case could be made for Buehler being a top-three performer on this list. Of the 11 mentioned, he's thrown the most innings, is tied for first in wins, has the third-best ERA and fourth-best WHIP. He is only ninth in strikeouts, largely in part down to his career-low 25.7% K% (62nd percentile). Buehler also leads MLB with 15 quality starts and concerns about the Dodgers' usage of him this year haven't materialized as of yet. His 5.9% BB% ranks in the 82nd percentile and his .191 batting average allowed is 10th among the 63 qualified pitchers. Other than a drop in his strikeout numbers, it's hard to find any fault with Buehler's first half of the season.

Midseason Grade: A

There's been no official word on Buehler's usage for the remainder of the season and he did throw 182.1 regular-season innings in 2019, so they may be less inclined to cap him as they may with Julio Urias. They do have some question marks and issues with the starting rotation so may need to ensure they get a full season from Buehler, especially as winning the NL West is far from a formality right now. I do expect some regression in the second half given Buehler's 3.31 xERA, 3.72 xFIP and 3.71 SIERA, but they are still strong numbers. His .251 wOBA is better than his xwOBA of .287 as well, but that's still in the 80th percentile. Although I expect regression, it shouldn't be to the extent that he won't still be one of the best starting pitchers in baseball.

Rest of Season Grade: A-

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 22.65
Early Season Grade: A-
GP 18, W-L 6-5, IP 101.1, K 126, ERA 4.53, WHIP 1.21

Nola's season has been a disappointment so far with his highest ERA since 2016. Just six wins and seven quality starts this year with a 6.00 ERA since June 1 leaves him ranked 58th among starting pitchers on the ESPN Player Rater. He's had seven outings in which he'd allowed four or more earned runs and seven in which he's allowed fewer than three earned runs. After posting a career-high 33.2% K% last year, his 29.5% K% this year is still his best compared to pre-2020 and only 12 pitchers tallied more strikeouts than Nola in the first half.

Nola was placed on the Covid-19 list on Sunday following contract tracing, and at this point, it's unclear if he'll miss any time or indeed if he's even tested positive.

Midseason Grade: C-

All is not lost for Nola in 2021. He has a 3.72 xERA, 3.35 xFIP and 3.26 SIERA with a .331 BABIP, all suggesting his ERA does get back nearer to his 3.58 career ERA. The underlying numbers are all better than in 2019 when Nola had a 3.87 ERA. Nola's struggles might be attributed to improved control, which may sound strange considering he has a career-low 5.4% BB% (89th percentile) and has a career-high .241 xBA and .411 xSLG. Keeping the ball in the zone when he ranks in the 25th percentile for fastball spin rate and 57th percentile for curveball spin rate might not be such a good idea. As Nola has a 3.23 ERA between 2017-20 and his underlying numbers are significantly better than his ERA, I have faith Nola does manage to turn things around.

The below table shows how all the pitchers on this list have fared after being in an 0-2 count. We can see that despite having more 0-2 counts than everyone else listed, Nola has the highest ERA, AVG, OBP, SLG and wOBA. Hopefully, that's something that is easily corrected moving forward and links back to leaving the ball in the zone more than maybe he should.

Rest of Season Grade: B

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

ADP: 27.33
Early Season Grade: B
GP 17, W-L 7-4, IP 98.0, K 134, ERA 2.66, WHIP 0.88

Scherzer's season so far has been seemingly under the radar. So much so that he was snubbed from the All-Star game, then included on the roster when players dropped out. Scherzer actually ended up starting the game for the National League. Despite turning 37 years old later this month, he doesn't appear to be slowing down. His ERA is the third-best of his career so far (2.51 in 2017 and 2.53 in 2018) while his 35.5% K% is a career-high.

Even though the Nationals have a losing record (42-47), Scherzer has still picked up seven wins and has ten quality starts. Prior to his last start before the All-Star Break in which he gave up seven earned runs in 3.2 IP (including a grand slam to Padres reliever Daniel Camarena), Scherzer had a 2.10 ERA. That one blemish is the only thing holding me back from giving him the highest grade.

Midseason Grade: A

The big question remains for the Nationals: will they trade Scherzer? He's likely to be the most coveted trade piece for any contending team and he is entering the final months of his contract, which means he might not require a huge return. His xERA (2.92), xFIP (3.29) and SIERA (2.81) all suggest he can be a difference-maker in the playoffs for any team so the Nationals should get plenty of suitors. His xwOBA of .271 is in the 88th percentile and .192 xBA is in the 92nd percentile so I'm confident his second half can be just as productive as his first half, perhaps even better for fantasy purposes if he does find himself on a team that can provide more wins.

Rest of Season Grade: A

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 29.14
Early Season Grade: F
GP 19, W-L 3-10, IP 102.2, K 96, ERA 4.65, WHIP 1.41

No pitcher has had such a contrasting first half than Castillo. Castillo posted a 7.22 ERA in 11 starts through May. He'd only managed to get through six innings once and allowed four or more runs on six occasions. In his eight starts since June 1st, Castillo has a 1.97 ERA with six quality starts and hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any outing. The lack of wins has remained a disappointment, but if we look at his numbers by month, we can see how much better Castillo has been in his most recent starts.

Midseason Grade: D

The fact Castillo has improved massively since the end of May is encouraging going forward, but I don't foresee a sub-2.00 ERA for the rest of this season. Castillo's xFIP in April and May was 4.34 and his SIERA was 4.62. In June and July, his xFIP is 3.68 and SIERA is 4.21, so not a huge difference between the two periods given his ERA was 5.25 lower in June and July compared to April and May.

The above table also shows us that while his results have improved, the strikeouts and walks still haven't been great. His 21.4% K% this year is significantly down on his career 27.0% K% prior to this season and he's still only managed one outing without a walk (back on April 13). Castillo's last start saw him walk six batters in 5.1 IP and he's walked three or more in five of his eight starts since June 1.

While I think Castillo wasn't as bad as his 7.22 ERA suggested he'd been pre-June, his recent ERA appears to be an overcorrection. By season's end, I think his ERA will be around the 4.20 range so will be around 3.60 for the rest of the season. Without the assistance of more strikeouts and fewer walks, that still won't be enough to provide much value on his ADP.

Rest of Season Grade: C+

Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals

ADP: 32.81
Early Season Grade: C+
GP 11, W-L 8-1, IP 62.0, K 67, ERA 2.90, WHIP 1.03

Despite making the fewest number of starts of anyone on this list, Flaherty's eight wins are third-most and he's had seven quality starts from his 11 outings. His last start came on May 31 when he tore his oblique. At the time, the Cardinals were 30-24 and 0.5 games back from the first-place Cubs. Since then, the Cardinals are 14-22 and find themselves eight games back of the first-place Brewers. While Flaherty was healthy, he was good and after allowing six earned runs on Opening Day, had a 2.18 ERA since then. That stretch also saw Flaherty win eight straight starts. Unfortunately, his grade has to reflect the lack of total production too.

Midseason Grade: D+

There hasn't been any official word on Flaherty since July 3 when the hope was he would start ramping up activity soon. Even if that's still the case, he'll likely need a rehab stint and realistically, we're looking at a return in mid-late August. That might only leave Flaherty with 6-8 more starts this year so it'll be hard to really garnish much value from a fantasy standpoint moving forward.

Of course, he could be a difference-maker for your team when he returns. Still, I'm preaching caution about that. Not only are oblique injuries unpredictable, but Flaherty's underlying numbers also weren't supportive of his ERA before he hit the IL. His 4.58 xERA, 3.98 xFIP and 3.89 SIERA suggest regression was coming and his .239 BABIP likely wasn't sustainable. His 26.3% K% was also the lowest he's put up since his debut season in 2016 and none of his expected stats really provide a reason for optimism.

Rest of Season Grade: D-

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP: 34.57
Early Season Grade: A
GP 18, W-L 7-4, IP 113.1, K 129, ERA 2.06, WHIP 0.84

If it wasn't for deGrom's season, I'd be saying we've saved the best for last. Woodruff teased a potential breakout in last year's shortened season when he posted a 3.05 ERA over 73.2 IP. The fact Woodruff only has seven wins despite having 14 quality starts is even more unlucky given the Brewers record of 53-39. He's only issued more than two walks in two of his 18 starts and has struck out eight or more in half of those starts.

What is possibly the most staggering statistic is that Woodruff's curveball is the only pitch that has been thrown more than 200 times, but has a sub-.100 wOBA this year (credit to Alex Fast @AlexFast8 for that nugget). Given Woodruff was the last pitcher drafted on this list in comparative ADP yet has the second-best numbers, it's only fair he receives the highest grade.

Midseason Grade: A+

The good news is, there's no reason to believe Woodruff has been entirely lucky and will see his ERA regress back to the 3.66 career mark he had entering 2021. His xERA (2.64), xFIP (2.94) and SIERA (3.18) do all suggest some sort of regression but nothing shows Woodruff will be anything but a top-five starting pitcher come season's end.

One question mark I have is his usage, as his 113.1 IP so far this year is only 8.1 IP short from his MLB career-high he set in 2019. Woodruff did throw 158 innings in 2016 across the Minor League levels, but if they want to avoid over-usage before a likely playoff run, they may look to limit him a bit in the second half. That remains to be seen so we might as well finish with a thing of beauty and they don't come much more beautiful than Woodruff's Statcast profile.

Rest of Season Grade: A

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