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Analysis of five fantasy baseball outfielders to draft in the middle rounds. Potential 2022 fantasy baseball sleepers and undervalued OF to target in drafts.
Welcome officially to the 2022 fantasy baseball season! Now that an MLB deal is in place, a lot more fantasy drafts will be taking place -- and we're here as always to guide you through it. Once you reach the middle rounds of drafts, everyone is looking to draft players with upside that can provide a great return on value. You can afford to start taking a risk or two on a variety of different players, including emerging prospects, overlooked veterans, players returning from injury, or even talented players who may have some playing time concerns. The early rounds are critical and the late rounds are where you can take your chances on dart-throw sleepers, but the middle rounds can absolutely make or break your roster as those picks are going to make up roughly half of your starting lineup.
Today, we're looking at some middle-round outfielders for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a mid-round draft target that you're going to want to prioritize? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2022 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all of our in-depth 2022 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2022 Draft Kit.
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Tyler O'Neill, St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Tyler O'Neill bounced back in a significant way last season after struggling during the 2020 campaign. O'Neill hit .286 with a .352 on-base percentage, 34 home runs, and 15 stolen bases in 537 plate appearances for St. Louis, showing the kind of power and speed that made him an intriguing prospect for years. A .366 batting on average on balls in play might look unsustainable at first glance. However, with a 90th percentile ranking or better in both hard-hit rate and barrel rate, as well as expected stats like xwOBA, expected batting average, and xSLG, O'Neill isn't an obvious regression candidate.
By all accounts, the production looks like it's here to stay. That's certainly good news for fantasy managers. Admittedly, the outfielder still strikes out at a fairly high rate. He registered a 31.3% strikeout rate last season, but that didn't stop him from turning in a quality batting average and an extremely productive season. O'Neill currently has an ADP of 72, which seems too low given his ability to make an impact with his over-the-fence power and speed. He has the potential and ability to easily outperform that draft position.
Franmil Reyes, Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians designated hitter Franmil Reyes was solid in 115 games last year, bashing 30 HRs with 57 runs, 85 RBI, four stolen bases, and a .254 batting average. His knack of hitting for power comes with some strikeout issues, though, and that continued in 2021 as he endured a career-high 32 K%. That made it hard for Reyes to hit for average, even with a .314 BABIP, especially considering his sub-optimal 9.7-degree average launch angle. It has been this way for his entire career as his .280 and .275 batting averages in 2018 and 2020 were paired with a .248 and .240 xBA, respectively. The 26-year-old will never factor in stolen bases, and the four bags he stole last season were the first of his career.
However, the power Reyes showed this previous season is sustainable. He produced a 94th-percentile Barrel%, increased his pull rate by 4.8% to an above-average 37.5%, and he has now hit 92 HRs in 411 games. The Guardians lineup isn't a strength and there is little firepower behind him, but if Reyes can hit close to 40 long balls, the RBI and run totals will naturally reach 80. His ability to contribute in three categories without completely killing the batting average is worth more than what his 127 ADP is saying.
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Orioles first baseman/outfielder Ryan Mountcastle was a popular sleeper heading into 2021 fantasy drafts after slashing .333/.386/.492 with five homers in 35 games in 2020. After a slow start, hitting just five long balls through May 31st, the 24-year-old went on a tear from June 1st on and mashed 28 home runs over his last 95 games. Mountcastle set the Orioles single-season rookie home run record with 33 in 2021. Overall, Baltimore's slugger slashed .255/.309/.487 with a .335 WOBA across 586 plate appearances.
He's projected to hit second in the Orioles lineup, and his dual-position eligibility at first base and outfield only boosts his fantasy value. Mountcastle's low walk rate (7.0%) and inability to get on base (.309 OBP) dings him a little in points leagues. Still, he is a robust fantasy option in standard 5x5 leagues, especially in league formats that require five starting outfielders.
Can the former first-round pick take the next step? Steamer is projecting Mountcastle with a .336 WOBA, a .260/.316/.478 slash line, 32 long balls, and five stolen bases in 2022. Statcast data is not on Mountcastle's side as his 27.5 K% is 14th in percentile rankings while his 39.7% hard-hit percentage is 41st per Baseball Savant. Despite not having the most extraordinary Statcast data, all Mountcastle has ever done since the minor leagues (career .295 average with a .800 OPS in the minors) is mash. According to RotoBaller's Expected Draft Values, Mountcastle's Steamer projection makes him roughly fair value at his current NFBC ADP of 109
Joey Gallo, New York Yankees
Nothing changed for Gallo with the move to the Yankees in the middle of 2021. He posted another classic Gallo season, slashing .199/.351/.458 while popping 38 homers and striking out at a prolific 34.6% clip. He is an absolute crater to your team's batting average, and it does not seem that is ever going to change. The upshot is that his career 15% walk rate has kept him from doing the same to fantasy teams in OBP leagues, so you need to make some serious adjustments on Gallo depending on your league settings.
Gallo hit near the top of the Yankees batting order while with them, which helped propel him to a strong 90 runs scored to go with his 77 RBI. He should post strong counting stats figures again in 2022, but that is canceled out by an egregious batting average and very few steals (all six of his steals in 2021 came in a Rangers' uniform). His ADP of 182 is a steal in OBP leagues, and it's not too bad in batting average leagues either given how great he should be in R, HR, and RBI.
Myles Straw, Cleveland Guardians
In a game where fantasy managers are obsessing over stolen bases, Myles Straw swiped the quietest 30 bags imaginable in 2021. His overall line of .271/.349/.348 might explain why, as it's tough to be a major leaguer with so little power that your OBP exceeds your slugging percentage over a full season of plate appearances. Straw isn't going to suddenly transform into a power hitter if his 88 mph average airborne exit velocity and 1.3% rate of Brls/BBE are any indication, but he should still deliver the steals that managers crave.
He has a great eye (21.9% chase rate) that allowed him to work a 10.5 BB% despite opposing pitchers not having to fear him at all, helping him get on base to steal a bag. Straw's 92.6 Z-Contact% and 19 K% ensure that relatively few of his PAs end in a fruitless strikeout. He also made the most of balls in play with a .336 BABIP categorized by a low 33.6 FB%, suggesting that he understands that airborne balls aren't for him. His 25.7 LD% might regress and hurt his average somewhat, but he should still be a slight plus in the category while adding runs scored as Cleveland's projected leadoff man. Throw in 30 steals and you have a guy who's well worth his current ADP of 191.
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