X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Putting Matt Ryan on Ice

Antonio Losada evaluates Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan as a fantasy football asset by looking into the team's passing attack and whether fantasy owners can trust the veteran QB as the fantasy playoffs approach.

Not long ago Matt Ryan was posting top-tier numbers. By "not long ago" I mean no further than six weeks ago, which is to say, half of the games already played this season.

Back then we were discussing Ryan as a great fantasy quarterback, one of the best in fantasy football in fact. Then, bad luck struck and Ryan fell to an ankle injury, causing him to exit early in Week 7 against the Rams and sit out Week 8 ahead of the team's bye. Ryan has not been the same since that crucial moment.

What has happened to Matt Ryan? Is it health alone or are their other contextual concerns with his offense? Can he recover and have a strong finish to help his owners win their leagues? Sadly, that doesn't seem to be the case. If you don't believe or still have hopes of having the right quarterback on your roster, I'm sorry to be the bad-news bearer. But this is the world we live in now and Matt Ryan is not part of the elite anymore.

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

 

First-Half Matt Ryan: The Tale of an Elite Quarterback

I already told you in the introduction above and I'm going to keep it short: First half of the season Ryan was as good as any other quarterback in 2019. Through six weeks (Week 6 results included) Matt Ryan ranked as the QB5 in total fantasy points, only trailing Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes. Read those names again. All of them were leading the NFL MVP award race at that point, full stop.

Ranking fifth among his peers was good and all, but it was even better considering Ryan's player profile. Ryan is not a scrambler at all. Looking at those other four quarterbacks' numbers through all of their games this season, none of them has rushed the ball fewer than 22 times. Ryan has 19 logged attempts in one more game than Mahomes. And those are only rushing attempts. In terms of rushing yardage, Ryan's 85 yards on the ground are by far the lowest among the five quarterbacks. Ryan did everything with his arm.

Your eyes aren't lying to you. Those are five green bars and one black. That means, five of Ryan's first six games of the season saw him finish the day as a top-12 quarterback in those weeks (and his season opener was just short of finishing in the QB1 tier). With such production, Ryan was clearly on pace to have a career year and become a true league-winner for those who bet on him back on draft day. And this was only getting better with a couple of 34-point plus games in Weeks 5 and 6.

On top of that, Atlanta's pass-catchers started the season with a bang too. Austin Hooper ranked as the TE1 through six weeks in total points, Julio Jones was the WR7, Calvin Ridley the WR21, and Mohamed Sanu the WR34. No other team had more than two players with at least 69.3 fantasy points accrued through Week 6, let alone Atlanta's four.

Nothing was wrong until of course, it was.

 

Second-Half Matt Ryan: The Tale of a Mediocre Passer

Enter Week 7 game. Atlanta versus Los Angeles Rams, or the day Matt Ryan went down injured. With a bye in Week 9, Atlanta played it safe and kept Ryan out of the Week 8 game against Seattle. Ryan made his return in Week 10 against New Orleans and has played three games since, including that one. Here is how Ryan's season has looked from Week 7 to his last game last Sunday against Tampa Bay:

You would have never thought those two charts belonged to the same player if you had been presented them out of context. Matt Ryan hasn't been terrible, and his 13.7 fantasy points per game include the 6.2 he finished with in Week 7, a game he couldn't even finish. His average excluding that week adds up to a much closer to reality 16.1 points. Again, good but not great.

Those hoping for a set-and-forget play at the quarterback position after seeing Ryan coast through the first third of the season are now, well, disappointed at the very least. Ryan has gone from a sure-fire QB1 to a low-end QB2. His 16.1 fantasy points average in the last three weeks rank 20th among quarterbacks behind the likes of Kyle Allen, Jeff Driskel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and even Mitch Trubisky. I'm not saying Ryan is worse than those quarterbacks, or that his true talent is under that of them, but that has been the case lately.

Ryan's splits this season are very telling of his two completely different halves:

From an average of a QB1-level 29 fantasy points, Ryan has dropped to 14 if we break the season in two halves at the Week 6 mark. He's attempting fewer passes, his completion rate has dropped from 72% to 59%, and while he's thrown a lower number of interceptions lately, his touchdown numbers have fallen off a cliff from 2.5 per game to not even one per contest. Perhaps the most concerning thing is the passing yards, which on average are more than 100 lower than they were from Weeks 1 to 6. Ryan is a volume passer who makes up the most of his fantasy numbers thanks to the sky-high numbers he often reaches (think of players like Matthew Stafford or Jameis Winston) so this is impacting his production incredibly.

Getting back to the receivers, Atlanta's top players at both the WR and TE positions have either lowered their production or fallen to injury. The most noticeable loss was that of TE Austin Hooper. After breaking fantasy football for eight consecutive weeks (he finished seven of those games as a TE1 in fantasy points), he was ready to take on the Saints in Week 10 but had to leave the field injured and it's not clear when he'll be back.

Another player lost for good is Mohamed Sanu. He was traded to the New England Patriots after Week 7. His production had been a little bit underwhelming in Weeks 6 and 7, but even with those bad games, he was still averaging 10.1 points per game for the Falcons. Atlanta's No. 1 and No. 2 receivers (Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley) have averaged 12.5 and 19.3 points over the last three weeks. While Ridley's mark is good (sixth-best among WRs), it is probably bound to regress, and Julio Jones should be much better than the WR24 over that span.

If Ryan keeps underperforming and the receiving corps doesn't maintain or improve their production, the Falcons are toast.

 

Matt Ryan Fantasy Expectations ROS

So far this season, with all games taken into consideration, Matt Ryan is the QB11 overall and has had five games in which he's finished inside the top-12 quarterbacks for the week. The problem with those season-long numbers is that they don't tell the complete story, as we have seen. Ryan's season has been a true tale of two halves, and the current one isn't developing in Ryan's favor.

Matt Ryan must keep his volume up no matter what. That is the only way he will be able to compete with the rest of quarterbacks out there who bring rushing upside to the table. Since he doesn't do much on the ground, he only has the passing game left. So far, so good in that department. Ryan ranks third in completions, and sixth in attempts, good for seventh place in passing yardage.

The problem and concern for Ryan's fantasy owners, though, is that all of his numbers and production have dramatically gone down since he suffered his injury a few weeks back.

On top of it all, Atlanta has the second-toughest schedule for a quarterback ROS (Weeks 13 to 16):

That doesn't bode well for Ryan's expectations. With only one favorable matchup against Jacksonville in Week 16, Ryan's fantasy owners will need to trust the rest of their players during the regular-season finale in Week 13 and the first two rounds of the fantasy playoffs. Reaching the championship game and facing your rival with Ryan going against Jacksonville doesn't sound that bad, but you have to get there first. Matchups against Carolina's and San Francisco's defenses will not make it easy.

Ryan is far from a go-to quarterback these days. It is hard to bench someone with his pedigree and track record, but his numbers from the last few weeks are not very encouraging. At this point in the season, trades are not happening and the waiver wire is probably depleted of talent so you will need to trust Ryan going forward. He's not the worst player around, but definitely one to keep you at the edge of the couch weekly while watching games develop and keeping track of fantasy points.

Good luck for the home stretch, Ryan owners. You'll need it!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF