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Matt Holliday Looks to Extend Prolific Career in Pinstripes

What Appears In This Article? hide

The Yankees' youth movement in the lineup was infused with a dash of experience when the club signed Matt Holliday in December. The 37-year-old has missed significant time over the last two years in St. Louis, but will be counted on heavily in New York.

Does he have enough left in the tank to be a fantasy starter in 2017?

Holliday's track record is indisputable; he is a career .303 hitter with 10 seasons of at least 20 HR and nine seasons of at least 80 RBI. While his best offensive years came in Colorado for obvious reasons, Holliday was remarkably consistent in his seven and a half seasons with the Cardinals.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

2017 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

It took a rash of injuries the last two seasons to interrupt his productivity, but this naturally comes as a primary concern. Holliday took 229 at-bats in 2015, followed by 382 in 2016. None of his various ailments were serious or career-threatening, but when the aches and pains keep piling up, it also creates headaches for fantasy owners.

Another red flag is the drop in batting average the last couple of seasons. Holliday had kept his final average above .290 in all of his 10 seasons up until 2014 when it dipped to .272. He then hit .279 in an abbreviated 2015 before falling to .246 last season. His power numbers were still good, as his HR% spiked from 1.4% the year before to 4.7% - the highest since his first season in St. Louis. Unfortunately, his walk rate fell to 8.2%, which was his lowest since 2006. It is hard to speculate whether he was sacrificing contact for power, affected by lingering injuries, or simply losing his eye for the ball as he ages.

There is reason to think he could find major regression in his averages. Holliday experienced a .253 BABIP - by far a career low. He will also be moving out of Busch Stadium to hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Busch ranked lower than Yankee Stadium in Park Factors for hits and runs. His power could increase too, seeing as how Busch Stadium was 21st in HR Park Factor last season, whereas Yankee Stadium ranked first with a factor of 1.377.

The Yankees lineup should get a boost with Holliday presumably at the cleanup spot. It has been a sore spot in recent years for the team and hit a low in 2016. Two of the primary cleanup hitters last season (Alex Rodriguez and Mark Texeira) are now retired. Phenom Gary Sanchez could slot at #3, ahead of Holliday, or vice versa. Whether Sanchez can come close to repeating his rookie season is one of the biggest question marks in all of baseball for 2017. Holliday's RBI numbers are inextricably linked to Sanchez's success, but with Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury at the top of the lineup, the floor on Holliday's run production should remain fairly high. The top half of the Yankees lineup could be one of the most explosive in the AL, but if youngsters Sanchez and Greg Bird struggle, then it could be a different story.

Holliday will get more attention in 2017 than he has in recent years now that he resides in the Big Apple. Some may buy into his run-scoring potential in the American League while others may be scared away by his age and recent slew of injuries. Look for Holliday to make the most of his one-year deal in New York and produce numbers comparable to his 2013-2014 averages.




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