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Analysis of five shortstop fantasy baseball targets to draft in the late rounds. Potential 2024 fantasy baseball sleepers and undervalued SS to target in drafts.
Welcome to our late-round shortstops article for 2024 fantasy baseball drafts! Late-round picks in fantasy baseball can often be the difference between a mediocre team and a championship contender. While it's easy to get caught up in the excitement of selecting big-name players early in the draft, finding those hidden gems in the later rounds is equally essential. As a fantasy manager, it's crucial to do your due diligence and research these overlooked players' statistics, injury history, and current team situation. While taking a chance on a player based on a hunch or a cool name may seem appealing, making informed decisions that increase your chances of success is the wiser strategy. With careful consideration and some luck, these late-round picks could be the key to unlocking your team's full potential.
Today, we're looking at some late-round shortstop options for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a priority late-round draft target? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Usually only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2024 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today to start reading all of our in-depth 2024 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools, including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more – available exclusively in our 2024 Draft Kit.
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Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies
On the surface, Colorado Rockies shortstop Ezequiel Tovar's 2023 season was lackluster, with a .253-15-73-79-11 line, a .298 WOBA, and 70 wRC+. However, when compared with other shortstops, he totaled the second-most doubles and was top-10 in hits, runs, and RBI. If it weren't for his poor April and July, he would have had a much more respectable .270 BA, and the righty even had a 15-game hit streak in the middle of the season.
This was despite his 31.3% Whiff% and 2nd percentile Chase% of 42.0%. ATC projections foresee a .263-16-71-79-13 season with a .311 WOBA and 79 wRC+. Going at the end of drafts with an NFBC ADP of 195, he won't cost you much, and RotoBaller ranks him a bit higher at 176, so there could be some value there. If you're looking for additional reasons to buy, he's still 22 years old and plays his home games in the thin air of Coors Field, so there's room for his numbers to grow.
-- Jarod Rupp - RotoBaller
Zach Neto, Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels shortstop Zach Neto played 84 games at the big-league level in 2023. While his overall numbers were not great, there was a span of 51 games where he was outstanding. Before landing on the injured list in mid-June with a left oblique strain, Neto slashed .279/.359/.468 with 12 doubles, six home runs, and five stolen bases across 51 games. This may be a relatively small sample size, but it shows two things. First, Neto is comfortable playing in the majors. He debuted less than a year after being drafted, leading to many initial concerns. However, he was ultimately able to produce in the big leagues. Second, his numbers likely went down in the second half because he was hurt.
In 2023, he had two different IL stints. His subsequent numbers suggest that he never got quite right. Fortunately, going into 2024, it looks like he is healthy and ready to go. While spring training numbers do not necessarily indicate how a player will do in the regular season, it is nice to see Neto hitting .316 with two HRs and a 1.122 OPS over his first 19 plate appearances. With an NFBC ADP of 308, he has the potential to exceed expectations in 2024. ATC projects Neto to slash .248/.326/.419 slash line with 18 home runs, 63 RBI, 65 runs, and nine stolen bases over 532 plate appearances, making him a late-round value at his current ADP.
-- Wade Smith - RotoBaller
Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros
From a power perspective, Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena's 2023 was a disappointment. In 2022, the rookie belted 22 home runs and had an above-average ISO of .173 in 521 at-bats, but in 2023, the HR total dipped to just 10, and the ISO went to a below-average .118 with 577 ABs. There were some encouraging signs in 2023, nonetheless, because with his 2022 power came a lot of swing-and-miss. In 2023, the former World Series MVP saw his K% drop from 24.2% to 20.3% (22.7% league avg.) while Contact%, SwStr%, and O-Swing% all improved as well. Also, even though his walk rate remained below average, it rose 74% (on a relative basis) from 3.9% to 6.8%.
Additionally, despite seeing his Barrel% drop to 4.0%, his average EV and Sweet-Spot% remained unchanged, so there is hope he can at least land somewhere in the middle power-wise while continuing to improve elsewhere. ATC projections forecast a .261-15-63-74-13 line with a .310 WOBA and 97 wRC+. With an NFBC ADP that stands at 226 overall, Pena won't cost managers much, and there's enough upside to take him earlier, near his RotoBaller rank of 202 overall.
-- Jarod Rupp - RotoBaller
Carlos Correa, Minnesota Twins
Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa saw a massive drop in overall production in the 2023 season. The 29-year-old slugged 18 home runs with 60 runs scored and 65 RBI across 135 games but also continued to deal with a foot injury that continues to be a concern. He noted to fans at TwinsFest this winter that he is "starting to turn a corner" in regards to his foot woes, but his .711 OPS from 2023 lingers large. He did rank in the 71st percentile or better in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the 2023 season and also suffered from a .272 BABIP that is well below his .312 career mark.
Age and foot injuries are an ominous issue for players at the shortstop position, however, as it is difficult to gauge how he will respond in an attempt at a bounce-back campaign in 2024. He hasn't stolen a base since collecting one in the 2019 season, and while his 20 projected home runs by ATC are solid, he remains an injury and production risk at his 242.72 ADP. Managers can still expect solid production from the former Houston Astro if he can avoid the injured list.
-- Brenton Kemp - RotoBaller
Jordan Lawlar, Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop prospect Jordan Lawlar reached the big leagues in 2023 and even cracked the divisional, championship, and World Series postseason rosters. However, his brief debut was not a productive one as he hit just .129 (4-for-31) with one stolen base and a 32.4% K% across 34 trips to the plate. He also made a pair of postseason plate appearances off the D-backs bench. However, Lawlar hit .278 with 20 home runs, 36 SB, and a .874 OPS in his age-20 season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels. His power and speed combination is elite, and he exercises patience at the plate, posting an 11.4% BB% in the minors last season.
Dynasty league managers should be salivating at the potential, but redraft managers need to exercise patience. ATC is projecting 94 games from Lawlar in the bigs in 2024 with a .243 average alongside eight HR and 15 SB. The long-term outlook is appetizing, but his 354.11 ADP as the 27th shortstop off the board is rich, considering more minor-league seasoning likely awaits in 2024. Lawlar was optioned to Triple-A Reno but could be called up to the big leagues soon if incumbent starting shortstop Geraldo Perdomo falters, making him solid value at a consensus ADP of 347.
-- Brenton Kemp - RotoBaller
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