Juan Soto's 2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook - Analysis Of New York Mets Signing

December 11, 2024

Juan Soto's 2025 fantasy baseball outlook after signing with the Mets. Tim discusses the fantasy baseball impact of Juan Soto's new deal for 2025.

OMG: Juan Soto spurned the New York Yankees and signed with the New York Mets for a 15-year, $765 million deal Sunday -- the richest for an athlete in sports history.

Though waning somewhat in recent seasons, the Yankees' reputation for big spending did not compete with Mets owner Steve Cohen's desire to bring Soto in as the face of the Queens franchise.

Fantasy baseball players should filter out all the chatter about why Soto spurned the Yankees (no "Suite Life in the Bronx") and focus on what we should dissect. How will a crosstown move affect the 26-year-old's output for 2025 and beyond? Let's examine Soto's fantasy value heading into his first season with the Mets.

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Juan Soto 2024 Season Review

Soto's $40 earned in 5x5 mixed rotisserie leagues ranked sixth among all players. Investing in his strong foundation isn't the reason players lost their leagues, but instead served as a rock around which to build with risk-reward players.

Standing tall in possibly baseball's most anticipated contract year, he notched career highs with 41 home runs and 128 runs scored to accompany a .288/.419/.569 slash, 109 RBI, and seven stolen bases. Though Soto hardly needs much assistance, having Aaron Judge batting third to protect him certainly helped elevate an already elite profile.

The Dominican also further won Yankees fans' hearts with an elite postseason performance (.327/.469/.633, 4 HRs, 9 RBI, 12 R, 14:9 BB:K in 64 PA).

JUAN SOTO THREE RUN HOME RUN IN THE 10TH!!!!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/Tj4b5CuM4T

— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) October 20, 2024

Statcast backs up his progression during his age-25 season. Soto also notched career bests in barrels per plate appearance (12.8%, third in MLB), hard-hit percentage (57%, third), and average exit velocity (94.2 mph, fifth).

Soto might've sold out a bit more for power (more on this later) but kept his foundational approach intact, further proving why he was an optimal hitter to receive a historic deal. At his age, his approach will grow well with him.

Soto to the Mets: 2025 Fantasy Baseball Analysis

Elite Skills Profile and Revived Power

Few hitters can justify their presence in the same conversation as Soto's plate discipline and ability to draw walks. Across the past three seasons, Soto has led the majors with a 1.15 BB/K and 19.0 BB%, ranks second in OBP (.410), and fourth in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) at 160.

But his power uptick in a timely season has some basis in how violently and effectively he swings the bat. Those Statcast numbers signal that he squared up to the ball at the most efficient rate since arguably his 2019 breakout.

His launch-angle sweet spot percentage (35.4%) was his best since 2019 (36.3%). Plus, his EV50, an average of the hardest 50% of his batted balls, ranked fifth (105.7 mph).

Hitting at Citi Field vs. Yankee Stadium

Soto boasts the skill set that can excel at any park as a home field, but let's nitpick. While the overall impact of the stadium probably isn't too much to worry about, the homer upside might take a hit at Citi Field.

MLB Statcast Park Factors (2022-24)

Soto's career-best total in big flies not so coincidentally came to life at one of the premier homer-enhancing parks for lefty sticks.

Statcast/Baseball Savant contradicts this a bit, however, by arguing that his Adjusted HR Tracker would've put Soto at 47.7 homers total (including postseason), 2.7 more than the 45 combined between the regular season and playoffs.

Summing it up: Soto's more consistent, cleaner, and truer path to the ball probably helped some of this power more than environmental and stadium factors. This wasn't a "Brady Anderson 50 HR" season.

Mets Lineup and NL East

Though Soto loses Aaron Judge as the ultimate protector, pairing at the top with Francisco Lindor leading off should pad Soto's RBI upside in an upgrade from the Yankees' revolving door of erratic leadoff hitters.

The Yankees ranked just 24th last season with 88 stolen bases, with a more station-to-station basepath approach than the Mets, who ranked tied for 16th (106). Soto could be inclined to run more freely on the bases, considering he will not have Judge at the plate if he reaches first base.

With all due respect to 2024 breakout bat Mark Vientos, who's slated to bat third as of publish time, that's a clear downgrade in protection.

Additional super-micro thought: Facing top NL East pitching more could stifle him some weeks more frequently than the AL East staffs on which he feasted.

The Yankees' divisional foes featured few top-flight arms, and Soto will still get the chance to punish uneven hurlers for the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals. However, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies could pose more trouble at the top of their more stacked rotations. (This might prove more consequential in head-to-head, weekly formats where Soto managers could experience a slight dip and risk losing a matchup.)

Juan Soto 2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

These ballpark and lineup dings could be deemed significant enough to influence many players negatively. Soto is not a basic player.

We have to pick away at details a bit more in fantasy when trying to sort through Soto and other first-round names. Fading him for potentially losing a handful of homers comes into play so early on.

However, recommending to harshly fade Soto in his new element would resemble some crazed Yankees fans' social media rantings after Soto's departure.

Soto, of course, isn't the high-SB player who can almost carry a fantasy team's category, like Elly De La Cruz. Still, given the significant impact stolen bases continue to carry when you look at the standard deviations of player auction values, a potential trade of some home runs for a handful-plus increase in swipes could stabilize Soto's dollar output.

Depending on RotoBaller's evolving fantasy MLB projections and raw dollar values, this might nudge Soto ahead of Judge due to a better shot at difference-making, five-category output.

With one of the most bankable hitting profiles in baseball -- perhaps this generation -- Soto retains full confidence as a first-rounder who could occasionally justify a selection in the top few picks. This more strongly applies to league formats that are tailored more closely to his ability to take walks, including points leagues and setups that replace batting average with OBP/OPS.

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