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John Johnson's 6 fantasy football bold predictions for the 2025 NFL season, including predictions for Tony Pollard, A.J. Brown, Travis Hunter and more.
Every NFL season is full of surprises. In fantasy football, if you're able to get out ahead of these surprises, avoiding players that will end up disappointing and drafting heavily players who go on to have better-than-expected seasons, you can get a serious edge.
In 2024, we saw rookie running back Bucky Irving put up massive numbers in the second half of the season, despite being a fourth-round draft pick. We also saw New York Jets running back Breece Hall disappoint, despite having a firm first-round ADP.
It's important to take lessons away from every surprise player when we can and apply them to the next season. While we shouldn't expect players' performances to mirror previous seasons -- i.e., there might not exactly be "This Year's Irving" again -- we can dig into the data and try to predict some future surprises!
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:- 2025 fantasy football rankings
- Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
- Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
- Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- NFL rookie fantasy football rankings
- Best ball fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
A.J. Brown Finishes As A Top-5 WR In PPG
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (hamstring) finished last season as the WR12 in PPR points per game, despite having logged seasons of the WR6 and WR5 overall in the last two years. His PPR points per game declined from 17.6 to 17.0 to 16.7 over his last three seasons.
Last season, the Eagles were ridiculously run-heavy. They ran the ball on nearly 56.3% of their plays, which was first in the league by a margin of nearly three percent. That was the highest of any team in the last 16 seasons, most recently only eclipsed by the 2009 New York Jets.
That's a historic rate of avoiding passing the ball. There were a few major driving factors behind this. Philly has one of the best offensive lines in the league. They also have one of their best running backs in Saquon Barkley. But they also had an incredibly easy schedule last season. That won't be the case this year.
🚨 Everyone’s favorite #Eagles Schedule Wallpaper is finally here, courtesy of Labate54 on Reddit. 🦅 pic.twitter.com/KPTQEYXE0m
— Eagles Nation (@PHLEaglesNation) August 23, 2025
With two games against the Dallas Cowboys and contests against the Rams, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Broncos, Vikings, Packers, Lions, Chargers, Commanders, and Bills, the Eagles have at least 11 games against teams that appear set up to have good offenses.
Philly lost a lot of talent on defense -- defensive tackle Milton Williams and edge rusher Josh Sweat both departed for other teams, and defensive end Brandon Graham retired. The pieces are all in place for a lot of shootouts, in which the Eagles might not have the luxury of running the ball so much.
The Eagles ran the ball on 56.29% of their offensive plays in 2024. That's the highest rate of any team since 2009 and third highest in the past 20 years. Big believer in AJ Brown's potential this year and that he's a steal in the late 2nd round
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) August 31, 2025
When a player scores fewer PPR points than they did in previous seasons, that doesn't mean they've regressed as a player. Brown, in fact, actually had better efficiency in 2024 than he did in 2023. He was targeted just 7.5 times per game in 2024, compared to 9.3 times per game in 2023. That's a 19 percent decline.
Despite this, his fantasy points per game declined by just under 1.8 percent. He averaged around 2.22 fantasy points per target in 2024, a 21 percent increase over his 1.83 fantasy points per target in 2023. His other efficiency metrics were among the best in the league.
WR open score and yards per route run. pic.twitter.com/YhPB02zy3e
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) January 16, 2025
He finished third in the NFL, behind only elite receivers Puka Nacua and Nico Collins, in yards per route run, and his ESPN Analytics Open Score was the highest in the league, meaning he was undoubtedly one of, if not the best, wideout in the NFL at separating from coverage and being open for potential receptions.
Brown, despite dealing with injury issues, might have just turned in his finest season as a WR yet. He's 28 years old, still clearly in his prime, and playing on a stable offense that has the potential to produce massive yardage. They just won the Super Bowl, after all.
So his value seems fantastic. He's a late second-round pick right now, and after last season, he's a bit of an "unsexy" pick, as he doesn't have much of a "hype train" behind him on social media right now. Yet it's often those unsexy picks that win you leagues.
Tony Pollard Smashes His ADP, Finishes As A Top-10 RB
Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard turned in a very nice 2024 season. Unfortunately, his production was held back by a variety of factors. The Titans didn't have much of a passing game to support the run game, so opposing defenses could often play the run effectively.
Tennessee also didn't have a great offensive line. They finished the season ranked 21st in ESPN's Run Block Win Rate metric, and Pollard dealt with a nagging foot injury later in the season, which eventually caused his fantasy scoring to plummet.
Tony Pollard with Tyjae Spears sidelined last season pic.twitter.com/LFYd2ayafU
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) August 29, 2025
The veteran's numbers were promising in the games he played without his backup, Tyjae Spears (ankle). Spears is now on Injured Reserve with an ankle injury, meaning Pollard will face little competition for touches in this backfield at the outset of the season. Spears was largely ineffective even when he did play last season, other than in a few garbage-time games.
Pollard is clearly the best running back in this team's backfield, and it isn't particularly close. The Titans drafted a quarterback with the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft and made several improvements along the offensive line, most notably signing guard Kevin Zeitler.
2024 NFL Running Back leaders in Yards After Contact per Attempt (min. 100 rushes):
1. Antonio Gibson
2. Tank Bigsby
3. Jordan Mason*
4. Bucky Irving
5. Cam Akers
6. Tony Pollard** = the only players to log 50% or more of snaps
(Data via @FantasyPtsData)
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) August 31, 2025
Among the top six players in yards after contact per rush attempt in 2024, who had at least 100 rushes, Pollard was easily the leader in snap share, having played 68.9 percent of the team's offensive snaps. A combination of big usage and high efficiency in metrics that try to control for offensive line play is impressive.
Despite all this, he's currently being drafted right around RB26 on Sleeper. That makes him a huge steal in the fifth and sixth rounds of drafts, where you should be heavily targeting him.
Jalen Hurts Finishes As The Overall QB1
Hurts hasn't finished as the overall QB1 in fantasy leagues yet. He's logged finishes of QB9, QB3, QB2, and QB8 in his last four seasons in PPR fantasy leagues, though. In three of those seasons, he only played 15 games. In his one 17-game season, he finished as the QB2 overall -- in 2023.
Yet in 2022, he led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, racking up 25.6 points per contest. On a per-game basis, his last four seasons were finishes of QB6, QB1, QB2, and QB6. As I explained in the section above about his top receiver, Brown, the Eagles might be forced to pass a lot more this year.
A ban of the Push Tush play that the Philadelphia Eagles popularized did not receive enough votes at today’s league meeting in Minneapolis. The play remains alive. There will be more tush pushes this season. pic.twitter.com/sy1DOIznqP
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 21, 2025
Perhaps most importantly, the league didn't get sufficient votes to ban the Tush Push in the offseason. Hurts has scored 10, 13, 15, and 14 rushing touchdowns in his past four seasons, largely driven by the Eagles' success on this controversial type of play.
Hurts being forced to pass more would be excellent for his value. Taking more plays away from Saquon Barkley's rushes and letting Hurts rip it down the field to his elite duo of wide receivers, the aforementioned Brown and DeVonta Smith, would help him reach new fantasy heights or just be the QB1 again, like he's already done.
Bhayshul Tuten Wins Fantasy Leagues
There are a lot of signs pointing to Tuten getting significant playing time in 2025. Some are data-driven, and some are anecdotal. On the anecdotal side, the Jacksonville Jaguars, who traded up to draft Tuten in the fourth round of the 2025 NFL Draft, are now coached by Liam Coen.
The same Liam Coen who was the offensive coordinator of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2024. That team also spent a fourth-round pick on a running back -- Bucky Irving, who went on to finish as the RB7 overall in PPR points per game over the last nine weeks of the season.
This was despite having an RB that finished as the RB4 overall in PPR points the previous season -- RB Rachaad White. White was drafted before Coen was hired. Coen may have had a hand in selecting Irving, and he definitely was a major driving force in the Tuten pick.
A big part of my evaluation process for running backs is asking "What does this player do at an elite level that directly translates to the next level?"
This type of curvilinear acceleration is special. It's Jahmyr Gibbs-esque. 2 blockers whiff and he beats them both, too. pic.twitter.com/TKd02KtuTO
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) August 26, 2025
Like Irving, Tuten is in a backfield with a veteran presence ahead of him on the depth chart. Running backs Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby aren't going anywhere this season, though Etienne was the subject of trade rumors earlier in the year.
Like Irving, Tuten will have to fight his way up the depth chart. But it's possible that Coen doesn't want a future backfield with Etienne or Bigsby, players he didn't pick, as the team's lead back. While it might take a few games for Tuten to truly break out, he shows a ton of promise.
For starters, he's a ridiculously elite athlete. At 206 pounds, he ran a 4.32-second 40-yard dash at the 2025 NFL Combine, which tied for fourth among the fastest running back 40-yard dashes ever. One of the players ahead of him, Dri Archer, was diminutive in size, at just 174 pounds, and he tied with Miami Dolphins RB De'Von Achane, despite weighing 18 pounds heavier.
The Jaguars offensive line hasn't played very well in years. Bhayshul Tuten's ability to force missed tackles in the backfield and burst to beat linebackers to the edge is highly underrated. Dude played behind a Swiss cheese OL and still made explosive plays pic.twitter.com/FCcyKotqhD
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) August 27, 2025
Tuten's elite speed shows up all over his film, and while the Jaguars don't have a great run-blocking offensive line, examples of Coen's elite run-blocking schemes are all over film and will likely help elevate the unit. The Buccaneers were one of the league's best passing and rushing teams last season under his guidance.
The Virginia Tech product isn't just a track star, though that on its own is compelling. Like Achane, he shows off fantastic elusiveness. He's not only able to juke and just run around defenders, but he also plays with great strength and power, and often bounces off tough tackle attempts and keeps his footing. He has great contact balance.
Why is Bhayshul Tuten my RB1? In addition to being an elite athlete, he does some things that I really like running backs to do:
-Breaks tackles
-Eludes tackles
-Carries tacklers with him
-Slips tackles
-Powers through tackles pic.twitter.com/Tj9BjW6GHN— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 28, 2025
Tuten's film shows everything you want in a starting running back. He does have a problem with ball security, but in a league where explosive plays are massively important, that's probably not a death sentence to his career. That's a problem that can be helped with coaching and effort.
Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams fumbled the ball a league-high six times last season, yet was still signed to an extension. Tuten will need to work on this area of his game, of course, but in the end, my analysis indicates it will be too difficult for Coen to keep him off the field.
Just another reminder:
-Bhayshul Tuten is faster than Jahmyr Gibbs
-Running backs who can return kickoffs for long touchdowns are pretty damn good athletes
-You should draft Bhayshul Tuten pic.twitter.com/RKzsbc4QpE— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 19, 2025
Generally, drafting running backs who are good kick returners in college is a good idea. They usually need to be better athletes than the team's lighter wide receivers to get these jobs and display great elusiveness. Tuten checks all the boxes for becoming a league-winner this season, and is basically free in redraft leagues. He's the steal of 2025 fantasy football drafts.
Travis Hunter Outscores Brian Thomas Jr. In Multiple Games
Hunter's playing time on each side of the ball has been subject to immense speculation. Hunter won the Biletnikoff Award, given to college football's best wide receiver, in 2024, and was selected with the second overall pick by the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Hunter has elite talent at the WR position despite not having the experience most players do entering college. He played both cornerback and receiver in college, and was in the film room with and prepared for games with his team's other defensive backs.
So it might come as a surprise to you that Hunter's film and advanced metrics are the most promising of any of this year's rookie wideouts. Additionally, it was made clear to us numerous times that Hunter would play primarily on offense to start the season.
Liam Coen slot receiver production history! In games before season ending injury:
2022 Cooper Kupp: 24.8 PPR points per game
2024 Chris Godwin: 20.7 PPR Points per game2025 Coen slot receiver: Travis Hunter, Biletnikoff Award winner, 2nd overall draft pick. pic.twitter.com/WVQaiO5Z4B
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) August 24, 2025
Preseason usage indicates that Hunter will likely be the team's primary slot receiver in three-WR sets. That's a massively valuable role in a Coen offense. The last two receivers to play in this role were Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin, both of whom averaged more than 20 PPR points per game.
Reminder that Travis Hunter is likely to get a Liam Coen slot role, known for producing league winning per-game production, and was lauded by Matt Harmon's Reception Perception, with positive success rates on every style of route he charted. Hunter is too cheap in redraft. pic.twitter.com/HoguAjdj3G
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) August 20, 2025
Hunter's dominance in college led Matt Harmon, creator of the Reception Perception wide receiver analysis system, to absolutely rave about the Heisman winner's potential as a wideout. I tend to agree with his analysis, and the film backs it up.
The rookie has a special ability to make catches even while contorting his body to a ridiculous degree. He has elite twitch in his routes, changing direction on a dime often, and he has lots of potential to improve throughout the season.
Travis Hunter is legitimately UNFAIR at the catch point
➖ 68.8% contested-catch success
➖ Only 4 career dropsHe’s so good at separating that we rarely even get to see this skill from him… pic.twitter.com/LxxWJF3fq2
— SCOUTD (@scoutdnfl) December 18, 2024
Hunter's win rate in contested-catch situations and his impressive abilities after the catch were highlighted in his film, along with other high-level traits. While many might not believe in quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the data suggests he could make a huge leap with Coen.
Lawrence languished with Darrell Bevell and Press Taylor as his offensive coordinators over the past few seasons. Both were largely maligned for their poor play design and game-planning, and Lawrence never had consistent help from the scheming side of things.
Trevor Lawrence's rookie season was awful.
Since then, he's produced some decent rates.
Fantasy points per dropback:
0.52 - Baker Mayfield the year before Liam Coen
0.53 - Trevor Lawrence the year before Liam Coen pic.twitter.com/FXONxXEsQT— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 27, 2025
In fact, Lawrence and Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield's best season stats before Coen came to town were eerily similar. So it stands to reason that T-Law can take a Mayfield-style leap in 2025, adding further fuel to the fire of a league-winning season from Hunter.
As well as Multiple games in which he outscores his fellow WR Thomas, just like Godwin outpaced WR Mike Evans in multiple contests in 2024 before his season-ending injury.
J.J. McCarthy Finishes As A Top-5 QB
While it might seem insane to pick a first-year starting quarterback that hasn't played a snap of regular-season NFL action as a top-5 QB for 2025, let's first take a look at what happened with the Minnesota Vikings last season. QB Sam Darnold finished as the overall QB9.
Darnold had never finished as better than the QB25 in any previous season before that. He was one of the league's worst quarterbacks in all the seasons that he started, and looked to be on his way out, before Minnesota and elite offensive-minded head coach Kevin O'Connell brought his career back from the dead.
JJ McCarthy looks exactly like Mahomes. Oh my god. pic.twitter.com/XMIhexCiLp
— Cam (@42Cyc) August 9, 2025
Darnold showed us nothing to make us believe he was a competent NFL quarterback until he lucked into possibly the best situation for a quarterback in the NFL. Featuring wide receivers Justin Jefferson (hamstring) and Jordan Addison and one of the NFL's best pass-protecting offensive lines, Darnold put up great numbers.
McCarthy will step into that same situation, this time with elite tight end T.J. Hockenson fully healthy, and bring in major rushing upside. McCarthy is one of the NFL's fastest quarterbacks right now. He never ran an officially timed 40-yard dash, but here's a clip of him outrunning RB Blake Corum, who ran a 4.54.
Blake Corum: really fast
JJ McCarthy: also really fast pic.twitter.com/MktKyfGilF
— Sidelines - Michigan 〽️ (@SSN_Michigan) January 19, 2022
McCarthy's reported 4.48-second time thus seems backed up by his play on the field. That's absurdly athletic for a quarterback and would immediately make him likely the second-fastest NFL starting QB, behind only Lamar Jackson. There are, of course, other capable QB rushers, like Jayden Daniels, but Daniels' top speed is only around 20 miles per hour, tracked by Next Gen Stats, which is consistent with players that run in the 4.6 range.
McCarthy's 2024 season ended before it started with a meniscus injury, but all recent reports have suggested that he's been fully healthy for months. It will be important how much he decides to actually take off and run, of course, but it will be an extra dimension of the offense that O'Connell can tap into.
JJ McCarthy literally has the greatest supporting cast in NFL history. How does it get better than this? pic.twitter.com/3GYclwHwlX
— vikesinsider (@vikesinsider) August 27, 2025
The team also brought in WR Adam Thielen. Despite his age, he still excelled as a separator last season and was the Carolina Panthers' No. 1 receiving target. McCarthy has an absolutely stacked supporting cast -- potentially the best in the league.
A less elite offensive environment helped Darnold far exceed his previous potential, and with rushing ability being the "Exodia" cheat code of fantasy production for running backs, we could see a huge inaugural fantasy season from the Vikes QB1.
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