Jamie Steed's Bold Predictions for 2022 Fantasy Baseball

April 3, 2022

Jamie Steed continues RotoBaller's Bold Predictions series with some outside-the-box calls for the 2022 fantasy baseball season.

Bold predictions can be the key to fantasy seasons. Predicting players who will outperform or underperform expectations by extreme amounts can win leagues. Bold predictions can also be entirely unhelpful, speculative thoughts that are just fun to consider.

And the latter is what these are! Sort of. I'm not going to tell you I think Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is going to be the no.1 overall fantasy player this year. That's not exactly bold now, is it? I do think that each of these predictions has a legitimate chance of occurring this year but I'm not banking on them. They should offer some insight into what I'm looking at in terms of performance from the relevant names

Last year's predictions were hampered by injuries, with Mitch Garver, Nick Senzel and members of the Marlins rotation suffering extended IL-stints.  I did big-up Ty France, Jared Walsh and Sean Manaea, all of whom had better than expected seasons. And as I don't like to wish ill of anyone, they're all positive upside predictions. So here's hoping for better health and maybe we can hit a couple of these outlandish predictions.

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Joe Ryan leads Twins pitchers in Ks and is a top-25 SP

Let's start off with the team that has probably made the most surprising moves this offseason, but I'm picking someone they acquired last year to make himself a household name and become a fantasy star.

Ryan was part of the trade that saw Nelson Cruz head to the Rays and Ryan had yet to make his MLB debut prior to the trade. He only made five starts for the Twins (26.2 IP), but impressed with a 4.05 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 6.0 K/BB. Granted, it's a very small sample but his MiLB numbers support this.

In 226.0 IP in the Minors, Ryan had a 2.67 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 6.15 K/BB. ATC projections have Ryan with 141 K in 134.0 IP and all projection systems have Ryan having a K% between 24.6% - 26.1%. If he performs as I suspect he will do and the Twins are in the playoff hunt, as I suspect they will be, he could go over 150.0 IP.

The trend of starting pitchers throwing fewer innings will likely continue given the shortened Spring Training this year and teams looking to be more protective of their starters in the early weeks of the season could mean 150 innings ranks in the top-50 of workloads this year. And his body of work will be better than most.

Ryan's fastball isn't one to light up the radar guns (averaging at 91.2 MPH) but it has plenty of life on it to get batters swinging and missing.

 
Ryan will likely need to develop his slider, curveball and changeup further and have at least two of them be good pitches to become a true frontline starter but he's shown plenty of ability throughout his young career and his slider and curveball are above average already.

Ryan has been given the nod as the Twins' Opening Day starter, confirming their faith in him and with an ADP of ~216, he's primed to outperform his ADP handsomely.

Brendan Rodgers is a top-five fantasy shortstop

Every year I pin my flag on a Rockies hitter having a breakout, and every year they hurt me. Despite my heart barely being able to take any more Colorado-based trauma, I'm ready to be hurt again.

Rodgers doesn't run, with zero stolen base attempts in 134 MLB games. However, he did steal 12 times (15 attempts) in 95 games at the Double-A level in 2018. And last year his sprint speed was in the 44th percentile, so he's not a lumbering base clogger by any means. Maybe the Rockies throw caution to the wind and Rodgers picks up seven or eight steals.

As a hitter, Rodgers put up solid numbers last year, enough to make me back him having a big 2022. In 102 games (415 plate appearances), Rodgers had a fantasy line of 15 HR, 51 RBI, 49 R and zero SB while hitting .284/.328/.470.

He doesn't walk, as evidenced by his 4.6% BB% (third percentile) but he can hit the ball hard when he does make contact, as evidenced by ranking in the 82nd percentile for maximum exit velocity. With a 79.8% contact% which ranked tied-13th among all shortstops (minimum 400 PA), only four of the higher-ranked shortstops hit more homers.

Everything points me in the direction of a breakout opportunity with just one or two minor changes to his hitting. This is a 25-year-old with a full season behind him, who hit 66 homers in 392 Minor League games (with a .298/.354/.504 line).

A .300 batting average, 25 homers and 85+ runs and RBI aren't out of the question so sprinkle in some steals and you have someone outperforming their ~162 ADP (21st shortstop) by a considerable margin. Playing half your games at Coors Field will help with that too.

Seth Beer out homers Nelson Cruz and finishes above him in fantasy rankings

Father Time remains undefeated and despite Cruz defying the odds, sooner rather than later we will see Cruz's powers diminish and we got the first glimpse of that last season.

His 32 homers were the fewest he's hit (over a full-length season) since 2013 and despite hitting 13 homers in 55 games for the Rays, his line in Tampa Bay was .226/.283/.442. His season-long line was .265/.334/.497, that slugging percentage being his lowest in a decade.

This isn't to diminish Cruz or his career and he's still a fine option in fantasy but it's time for Cruz to hold my beer (see what I did there?) and hand the DH crown over to young Seth.

The universal DH will likely give Beer a route to regular playing time and he's certainly making a case for himself in Spring. Through 11 games, Beer has a .474/.565/.842 line with one homer and four doubles.

In his first year as a pro, Beer hit 12 homers in 67 games and followed that up in 2019 by hitting 26 homers (123 games) across two levels. Last year, Beer played 100 games in Triple-A, hitting 16 homers and managed to hit his first Major League homer in his first at-bat for the Diamondbacks.

 
Beer has an ADP of ~606 and is undrafted in most formats while Cruz's ADP is ~175. There's a very real chance that 2022 is finally the year that age catches up with Cruz and Beer reminds everyone why the Astros drafted him in the first round just four years ago. I highly doubt the finish 400+ places apart at the end of the season.

Kevin Smith has a 20/20 season

Oakland fans need something to get excited about after the Front Office decided winning wasn't fun anymore. And the ready-made replacement included in the Matt Chapman trade could be the answer.

Smith has hit at every Minor League level and has career MiLB numbers of 73 HR, 266 RBI, 250 R, 67 SB and a .268/.328/.490 line (400 games). In 94 games at Triple-A last year, Smith had 21 homers and 18 steals prior to his call-up to Toronto. Tell me that's not the making of a 20/20 player in the Majors?

This Spring, Smith is doing all he can to make a case for being the A's starting third baseman (who can also play shortstop) by hitting .290/.313/.548 with two homers, two doubles and a stolen base over 31 at-bats.

If he breaks camp with the A's, his ADP of ~660 could look ridiculous in a few months' time and he might be the only reason fans bother turning up to watch Oakland in 2022.

David Robertson is a top-10 reliever

Call me nostalgic. Call me crazy. Maybe if we all wish it hard enough, we can make Robertson an elite closer again.

The Cubs might turn to Rowan Wick or Mychal Givens to close out their games, or possibly a combination of all three. While I have concerns about all three of them, Robertson is the one I can look back and see a period of excellence that makes me believe he can have another run at greatness.

Robertson picked up 110 saves between 2014 - 2016 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 33.1% K%. In 2017 and 2018, although he only tallied 19 saves in 130 outings (138.0 IP), he remained dominant with a 2.54 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 34.6% K%. We don't have to go too far back to remind ourselves of what he was (and possibly is still) capable of.

He'll be 37-years-old during the first weekend of the season and has only 18.2 IP in the Majors over the last three years, but to put a positive spin on things, that's three years less wear-and-tear on his arm, leaving him primed for one more season.

Maybe that's stretching it but strangers things have happened. No one expected 40-year-old Adam Wainwright to have over 200 innings with a 3.05 ERA in 2021 so why can't Robertson get through 60.0 IP with a 3.00 ERA and pick up 35 saves?

The Brewers have eight players with 20+ homers

I won't sit here and run through why all of these hitters will end up having 20+ homers, but with the universal DH in place, the Brewers have enough talent to do this. They already roster seven players who have hit 20+ homers in a single season.

These being Hunter Renfroe, Willy Adames, Christian Yelich, Andrew McCutchen, Luis Urias, Rowdy Tellez and Omar Narvaez. Keston Hiura has 36 homers in 204 MLB games, while last year, Kolten Wong hit 14 homers in 116 games and Tyrone Taylor hit 12 homers in 93 games.

Assuming they don't suffer a multitude of injuries, there should be enough playing time for everyone to reach that target. If you don't think that's particularly a bold prediction, no team had eight players hit 20+ homers last year. Toronto had seven, Boston and the Dodgers had six and that was it.

Max Stassi hits 20 homers and is a top-five catcher

Stassi is currently the 21st catcher being drafted with an ADP of ~295 (based on two-catcher leagues). There aren't 20 catchers I'd rather roster than Stassi. In fact, I don't think there's even ten.

Over the last two years, Stassi has played 118 games (424 plate appearances) and has 20 homers with a .250/333/.452 slash line. Pretty solid for a catcher. The projection systems mostly all have him hitting 15 homers in ~100 games.

Stassi had spent more time on the IL in the last two years than he'd have liked. That's what has held him back from playing 110+ games so is it too much to expect better health given he's still only 31-years-old?

That seems to be all that's stopping Stassi from hitting 20 homers which should be enough to see him rank as a top-5 catcher in fantasy.

Cardinals outfield trio Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Carlson and Harrison Bader combine for 90 homers, 45 steals and all finish as top-25 outfielders

This is the one I'm most bullish on and I continue to believe the Cardinals outfield trio could have a historic season.

I don't think there is another outfielder who has experienced as much helium over the last six months as O'Neill and he finds himself with an ADP of ~48 (15th outfielder). So him finishing inside the top-25 outfielders shouldn't be a surprise.

Then we have Carlson who appears to be a candidate for being the Cardinals' lead0ff hitter. He's the 43rd outfielder being taken with an ADP of ~168. Last but not least, is Bader, the 63rd outfielder taken in drafts with an ADP of ~262.

This is what they did last season;

So combined, they hit 68 homers and had 26 stolen bases.

The ATC projections of all three are shown below and have the trio combining for 71 homers and 30 steals.

A far cry from 90 homers and 45 steals. So what will need to happen for them to reach those numbers?

O'Neill will need to hit 40+ homers. Considering he hit 34 in his first full Major League season, an extra half a dozen isn't exactly beyond the realms of possibility leaving Carlson and Bader needing to hit 25 each. Again, not much of a reach given last years' numbers and their projections.

Then there are the steals. A big part of my prediction is believing (or maybe it's hoping) that Carlson runs more. He ranked in the 73rd percentile of sprint speed last year and if he does get the leadoff role, the Cardinals may look at him running more.

Carlson had 20 steals in 126 Minor League games in 2019 so it's not like he's never shown that speed on the bases before.

Then there's O'Neill, who ranked in the 98th percentile for sprint speed and Bader, who ranked in the 97th percentile. I know, sprint speed doesn't automatically equate to stolen bases so if Carlson can get 10-12 steals, 35 between Bader and O'Neill is plausible.

My one disappointment this draft season is not having all three rostered on the same team as that has the makings of being an incredibly fun and successful fantasy team.

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