X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Houston Astros Pitching Analysis & Projections: 2014 Fantasy Baseball

RotoBaller Kyle Braver brings you his analysis and projections for the Houston Astros starting pitchers (SPs), relief pitchers (RP) their fantasy values for the 2014 fantasy baseball draft season.

In a continuation of my last piece on the Houston Astros offense, today I'm going to examine the current pitchers on the Astros roster for the upcoming fantasy season. In case you don't like reading, though, here's the readers' digest version of this one: none of them are draftable in 2014 fantasy baseball leagues, and I mean that in almost every league you might be playing in. At this point, Astros pitchers are relevant only to the extent that they're warm bodies that are taking the mound, and they will thus have opportunities to accumulate stats. If you play in a deep enough league (and I mean something like a 16-team AL only league) where innings are scarce enough to be valuable in and of themselves, then target the Astros on draft day in the very late rounds. For the great majority of fantasy owners however, this won't-- and shouldn't-- apply.

Note: One of the stats I'll be listing is FIP, a stat which some readers might not be familiar with. Essentially, what FIP does is estimates what a pitcher's ERA would be if we stripped away all the factors outside of his control (things like defense) and evaluated him only based on the things he can control-- namely, strikeouts, walks and home runs. It is of course not a perfect stat, but it has been shown to have much more predictive power than ERA, which is why I include it.

 

2014 Houston Astros - Pitching Staff Preview

Scott Feldman

2013: 12 W, 12 L, 30 Starts, 181.2 IP, 6.54 K/9, 3.86 ERA (w/ 4.03 FIP)

2014 Steamer Projection: 10 W, 11 L, 27 Starts, 173 IP, 6.28 K/9, 4.34 ERA (w/ 3.99 FIP)

As his stats suggest, Feldman is pretty much your stereotypical fifth-starter type. He doesn't excel at much, but he'll keep his team in the game long enough to give them a chance to win more often than not. Sadly, with the Astros' well-below-average offense behind him, he probably doesn't have much of a chance to win more than the 10 games. Steamer has him projected right there, and this understandably limits his usefulness as a streaming option. It should go without saying that you wouldn't want to draft Feldman. His limited upside and low floor combine for a rather undesirable package on draft day.

Recommendation: Avoid on draft day

 

Brett Oberholtzer

2013: 4 W, 5 L, 10 Starts, 71.2 IP, 5.65 K/9, 2.76 ERA (w/ 3.65 FIP)

2014 Steamer Projection: 9 W, 10 L, 25 Starts, 154.0 IP, 6.23 K/9, 4.64 ERA (w/ 4.47 FIP)

Not to take away from the season he had in 2013, but Oberholtzer is the reason why many fantasy owners shy away from evaluating their pitchers based on ERA alone. That 2.76 ERA last year was a product of a perfect storm of unreasonably low strand, home run and batting-average-against rates, something which almost certainly won't happen again. It's because of this that Steamer has him posting an ERA well above 4.0 next season, and thus he is similarly well outside of normal for fantasy purposes. And this of course assumes that he is able to stay healthy, something which you just can't necessarily expect with young pitchers. Unless Oberholtzer takes a big, big step forward, he's at best a streaming option in very deep leagues.

Recommendation: Avoid on draft day

 

Jared Cosart

2013: 1 W, 1 L,10 Starts, 60.0 IP, 4.95 K/9, 1.95 ERA (w/ 4.35 FIP)

2014 Steamer Projection: 7 W, 11 L, 24 Starts, 144.0 IP, 6.56 K/9, 5.06 ERA (w/ 4.55 FIP)

Everything I said about Oberholtzer above applies doubly to Cosart. He should be commended for pitching way, way above his head last season, but if you think he has a chance of replicating that ERA, then you're in for a tough season. Cosart might be a viable fifth-starter or back-of-the-bullpen arm in a year or two for a major league team, but for fantasy purposes his value is virtually nonexistent this coming season. Like Oberholtzer, he's at best a streaming option for the desperate in very deep leagues.

Recommendation: Avoid on draft day

 

Brad Peacock

2013: 5 W, 6 L, 14 Starts, 83.1 IP, 8.32 K/9, 5.18 ERA (w/4.98 FIP)

2014 Steamer Projection: 6 W, 7 L, 17 Starts, 96.0 IP, 7.55 K/9, 4.57 ERA (w/ 4.46 FIP)

The good news on Peacock is that he's got a bit more strikeout potential than most of his rotation mates in Houston. The bad news is that he's going to kill you in every other category so badly that he could have Darvish's strikeout numbers and still be virtually useless to most fantasy owners. As mentioned above, ERA doesn't tell the full story, but based on Peacock's peripherals (i.e., strikeout rate, walk rate, etc.), it looks like it's going to hang closer to 5.0 than 4.0 in 2014. That's a hard player to roster outside of very deep leagues, and most fantasy owners can safely to ignore Peacock, certainly on draft day.

Recommendation: Avoid on draft day

 

Dallas Keuchel

2013: 6 W, 1 0L, 22 Starts, 153.2 IP, 7.20 K/9, 5.15 ERA (w/ 4.25 FIP)

2014 Steamer Projection: 9 W, 10 L, 25 Starts, 165.0 IP, 5.83 K/9, 4.42 ERA (w/ 3.96 FIP)

I put Keuchel's name here somewhat hesitantly, because the fifth spot in the Houston rotation is very much in play for several pitchers, among them Alex White, Lucas Harrell, and Mark Appel. I think it is most likely, however, that Houston breaks camp with Keuchel in the No. 5 spot, which is why I include him here over the others. The distinction is not terribly important,  though, because outside of Mark Appel, fantasy owners shouldn't be interested in any of these names on draft day. Keuchel is probably the best of the non-Appel camp, and as the Steamer projection suggests, his upside is something that looks very much like Scott Feldman, himself undraftable, and his downside is the kind of ERA that can lose you a league. If he seems solid after a few starts, he might be a streaming option in deep leagues, but I'd probably avoid him if possible.

Recommendation: Avoid on draft day

 

While the rotation as of now looks unpromising, the Astros do have several exciting young pitching prospects like Mark Appel who could join the team as early as this coming season. I'll cover them in more detail in a later article on Astros prospects in general.

 

Houston Astros Bullpen

Josh Fields: 5 career saves, 5 saves in 2013 with the Astros

Joshua Zeid: 1 career save, 1 save in 2013 with the Astros

Kevin Chapman: 1 career save, 1 save in 2013 with the Astros

Chia-Jen Lo: 2 career saves, 2 saves in 2013 with the Astros

Jesse Crain: 4 career saves, 0 saves in 2013 with the White Sox

Chad Qualls: 51 career saves, 0 saves in 2013 with the Marlins

At the present moment, it's hard to make very much of this bullpen for fantasy purposes. Obviously, whomever Houston names the closer will have value in fantasy leagues, but until Bo Porter makes that decision, all these guys are in limbo. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say the most likely candidate for the job is Chad Qualls, based on his closing experience and history with the organization. That said, Veras only had five career saves spread over almost seven seasons before winning the job in Houston, so closing experience isn't necessarily the driving force behind the decision calculus for the Astros. We probably won't get much of an indication as to which way Porter is leaning until Spring Training at the earliest, and of course there’s also always the chance that they stick with the bullpen-by-committee strategy they employed last season after the Veras trade. What it all makes for is a confusing jumble, and until things are cleared up and their roles become more defined, none of these players is really draftable outside of a deep Holds league. I'd keep the situation closely monitored, however, because even a closer on the worst team in baseball can be a valuable fantasy commodity.

Recommendation: Undraftable until their roles become defined. If Porter does happen to name his closer before your draft day however, I'd target whoever it is around the 19th or 20th round in the draft.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
San Francisco Giants

Giants Exercise Bob Melvin's 2026 Option
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Josh Naylor

Back in Action on Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Suffers Setback
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
ANA

Mikael Granlund Moves to Anaheim on Three-Year Deal
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
NJ

Jake Allen Signs Five-Year Extension With Devils
VAN

Brock Boeser Remains in Vancouver on Seven-Year Deal
Conor Garland

Signs New Six-Year Deal with Canucks
Thatcher Demko

Signs Three-Year Extension with Canucks
Brandon Woodruff

Ready for Season Debut
Martin Fehérváry

Martin Fehervary Agrees to Seven-Year Extension with Capitals
Garrett Mitchell

Out for the Rest of the Season
MLB

Brewers-Mets Postponed on Tuesday
MLB

Tigers-Nationals Postponed on Tuesday
Zach Neto

Returns to Tuesday's Lineup
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
MLB

Padres-Phillies Postponed on Tuesday
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Hunter Goodman

Back Behind the Dish on Tuesday
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Jason Day

is a Fine Play With Limited Upside at John Deere Classic
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Luke Clanton

Looks to Have Another Strong Week at TPC Deere Run
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Sacramento Kings

Dennis Schroder Set to Join Sacramento
Bo Bichette

Out Again on Tuesday
Trent Grisham

Likely Heading to Injured List
Boston Celtics

Luke Kornet Agrees to Contract With San Antonio
Jonas Valančiūnas

Nuggets Trade for Center Jonas Valanciunas
Royce Lewis

Twins Activate Royce Lewis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Signs Massive Extension With Oklahoma City
Corbin Carroll

Eyeing Return Before All-Star Break
New York Knicks

Knicks Pick Up Guerschon Yabusele
Yordan Alvarez

Could Return Early Next Week
NFL

Negotiations on 18-Game Season Not Expected Until Next Year
Indiana Pacers

Myles Turner Leaves Indiana, Signs With Milwaukee
Kerry Carpenter

Shelved with Hamstring Issue
Tyler Boyd

Steelers Have Talked With Tyler Boyd
Milwaukee Bucks

Damian Lillard Waived By Milwaukee
Darren Waller

Coming Out of Retirement to Play for Dolphins
Alexander Romanov

Islanders Retain Alexander Romanov on $50 Million Contract
Andrei Kuzmenko

Signs Up for One More Year with Kings
Morgan Geekie

Signs Long-Term Extension with Bruins
Ivan Provorov

Stays in Columbus on Seven-Year Deal
Alex Pietrangelo

Stepping Away From Golden Knights for Health Reasons
Matias Maccelli

Maple Leafs Bring in Matias Maccelli
Evan Bouchard

Inks $42 Million Contract with Oilers
Vladimir Tarasenko

Wild Acquire Vladimir Tarasenko From Detroit
Patrick Kane

Signs New One-Year Deal with Red Wings
Brad Marchand

Lands Six-Year Extension
Aaron Ekblad

Remains a Panther on Eight-Year Deal
Mitchell Marner

Heads to Vegas
Randy Arozarena

Homers Twice, Plates Four Monday
Shea Langeliers

Hits Three-Run Homer In Return From Injured List Monday
Wilyer Abreu

Belts Grand Slam and Hits Inside-the-Park Home Run
Philadelphia 76ers

Trendon Watford Lands in Philadelphia
New York Knicks

Jordan Clarkson Expected to Sign With Knicks
Santi Aldama

Remains with Grizzlies
Atlanta Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Lands in Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Could Move Around in Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Clippers

Brook Lopez Strikes Deal With Clippers
Jonnu Smith

to be Used in Hybrid Role
Terry McLaurin

Commanders, Terry McLaurin Not Close on Contract Extension
Chicago Bulls

Tre Jones Remaining in Chicago
Michael Mayer

Raiders Not Interested in Trading Michael Mayer
Houston Rockets

Dorian Finney-Smith Signing With Rockets
Atlanta Hawks

Caris LeVert Joining Pistons
Aldrich Potgieter

Wins Rocket Mortgage Classic
Thorbjorn Olesen

Finishes Tied for 41st at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Denny McCarthy

Finishes Tied For 12th at Travelers Championship
Chris Kirk

Finishes Tied For Second at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Michael Kim

Finishes Tied for 26th at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Max Homa

Misses Cut at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Lucas Glover

Finishes Tied For Ninth at Travelers Championship
PGA

Nico Echavarria Finishes Tied For Sixth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Pittsburgh Steelers

Rumors Still Swirling Around Potential T.J. Watt Trade
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Tyler Boyd

Interested in Playing for Steelers
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Now Looking to Acquire a Tight End
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
L'Jarius Sneed

Says he's Healthy
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Minkah Fitzpatrick

Heading Back to Miami
Jonnu Smith

Shipped to Pittsburgh
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Jalen Ramsey

Steelers Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Jonas Brodin

Expected to Miss Start of Next Season
TB

Conor Sheary Placed on Waivers for Contract Termination
Dante Fabbro

Stays with Blue Jackets on Four-Year Deal
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
NFL

NFL Won't Hold Supplemental Draft This Year
Damon Arnette

Getting Second Chance With Texans
Deommodore Lenoir

Arrested for Obstruction of Justice
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Expected to Make Second-Year Jump
Jalin Hyatt

Looking to Flip the Script in 2025
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
Charles Oliveira

Can Become A Two-Time Lightweight Champion
Ilia Topuria

A Favorite At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Can Become The New Flyweight Champion
Alexandre Pantoja

Set For Fourth Title Defense At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Renato Moicano

Returns At UFC 317
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC 317
Payton Talbott

Looks To Bounce Back
Felipe Lima

Set To Open Up UFC 317 Main Card
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF